WPAC: TEMBIN - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Even without ASCAT data (which should come in soon), I'd seriously consider classifying at 12Z. Going to be hard not to based on apparent banding.

[doomhaMwx]

Next name's "Tembin".

[mrbagyo]

looks classifiable

[Alyono]

looks like a tropical storm

[cycloneye]

JTWC will upgrade at 21:00 UTC to TD.

33W THIRTYTHRE
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 20, 2017:

Location: 8.3°N 131.0°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Tropical Storm TEMBIN

TS 1727 (Tembin)
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 20 December 2017

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 20 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°00' (9.0°)
E130°40' (130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 21 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°00' (9.0°)
E129°00' (129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 21 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°00' (9.0°)
E127°25' (127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 22 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°55' (8.9°)
E122°55' (122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 23 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°20' (8.3°)
E119°40' (119.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

[cycloneye]

JTWC first warning.They forecast a 65 kt Typhoon at SCS.

[euro6208]

Finally 33W Tembin is here.

WDPN32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTY-THREE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (THIRTY-THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
211 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO AND DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE
SEA AT 29 CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ON THIS SYSTEM.
B. TD 33W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS
THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST ASSUMES STEERING FROM THE CURRENT STR. THE
SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MINDANAO AFTER TAU 24 AND
CROSS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO. BY TAU 72, TD 33W WILL
MAKE LANDFALL OVER PALAWAN JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO PRINCESA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, LIMITED
ONLY BY FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE ISLANDS. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM
WILL REACH 60 KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 33W WILL RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS
THE STEERING STR WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AND FURTHER INTENSIFY AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST, PEAKING AT
A TYPHOON INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE, GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM TO 45 KNOTS RIGHT BEFORE
LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN VIETNAM BY TAU 120. THE INITIAL SET OF NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREADING AT THE
EXTENDED TAUS. NAVGEM IS A NOTABLE NORTHERN OUTLIER. GIVEN THESE AND
THE FORMATIVE STAGE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

the JT advisory is incredibly inaccurate. This is much stronger than a 25 kt depression

[euro6208]

Both GFS and EURO sees some significant strengthening in the SCS.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Be watching this for some RI very good ohc & upper exhaust vent on the plot.

[Alyono]

not going to be any RI. The center is east of the convection. Likely a 40-45 kt TS over Mindanao. However, that is similar to Washi

[mrbagyo]

not going to be any RI. The center is east of the convection. Likely a 40-45 kt TS over Mindanao. However, that is similar to Washi

I agree, circulation is partially exposed at the moment. Likely wont have enough time to do RI before Mindanao.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

not going to be any RI. The center is east of the convection. Likely a 40-45 kt TS over Mindanao. However, that is similar to Washi

No RI not even a brief one is good news. Take your Pro opinion with respect always.

[euro6208]

Now up to TS.

33W TEMBIN 171221 0000 8.6N 129.5E WPAC 35 1003

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 DEC 2017 Time : 004000 UTC
Lat : 8:31:57 N Lon : 129:57:08 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1008.7mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.4 2.4

Center Temp : -35.3C Cloud Region Temp : -45.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.50 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 9:07:48 N Lon: 129:56:59 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 92km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.3 degrees

****************************************************

[doomhaMwx]

Appears to be feeling some easterly shear.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

looks a very cold ccc

[doomhaMwx]

Model guidance indicates that the system could dump rainfall totals reaching/exceeding 100-200mm(4-8in) to the northern half of Mindanao, and parts of Visayas during its passage.

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to TS at 35 kts.