Texas Winter 2017-2018

[JDawg512]

Some very light mist has started to fall here at the Rain Cave. At least it's above freezing.

[Cpv17]

If anything even close to what the GFS is predicting were to verify, then it would be quite a disaster. Good thing it's in the long-range. Would hate to see what the Canadian would do with those temps, given that it's been about 20 degrees colder than the GFS of late.

A couple days ago the Canadian had me a -2 just to the southwest of you in Wharton

[Theepicman116]

Just checked the Wunderground radar before I hit the sack. There’s a line of snow forming up near Oklahoma City. If that line holds and marches forward into Texas the DFW area could see some snow. It would be a light amount and would probably on elevated surfaces.

[Ntxw]

Radar returns in Oklahoma has some ground truth. 20F with light snow and 3 mile vis in OKC. HRRR has the band more defined tomorrow morning in NTX. 35F with dew point of 29 at the airport. 850s at DFW per SPC meso is below 0C good enough for all snow.

[stormlover2013]

Imagine that gfs going overboard in the long range lol

[Rgv20]

0zWRF-ARW Short Range Mesoscale model has low 30s by noon New Years Day for my area with the radar lighting up....

[Ntxw]

0zWRF-ARW Short Range Mesoscale model has low 30s by noon New Years Day for my area with the radar lighting up....

http://i67.tinypic.com/w9w4uw.png

http://i64.tinypic.com/r9h4cn.png

Could be the second time in less than a month deep S Texas has frozen precip! McFarland would be proud

[Cpv17]

Very nice trend. I would be on the north side of that. I’m exactly in between Houston and Victoria off Highway 59.

[stormlover2013]

I think south Texas could get something again twice in a month !!

[Brent]

might need a flizzard watch for Dallas around 8-9am

gonna be brief probably

half inch of unexpected snow reported near OKC. Norman saying an inch possible(and just now issued an advisory)

[Lagreeneyes03]

My husband just left for work and called me to tell me it's flurrying here. (Near DFW Airport).

[Tammie]

My husband just left for work and called me to tell me it's flurrying here. (Near DFW Airport).

You made me go outside in my jammies! Indeed something frozen is falling in Denton too. You can faintly see it, but you can definitely hear it hitting the car and roof!

[somethingfunny]

Some light drizzle is falling in Richardson. It's flying around a bit in the breeze but it's definitely not flurries. Not freezing on any metal poles yet either.

[somethingfunny]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
406 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2017

.SHORT TERM...
/Today/

Patchy drizzle and mist continues early this morning across the
region, and a snow band that developed overnight in Oklahoma is
now moving south towards the Red River. Even colder air is
starting to invade North Texas now, and as it does it is
squeezing out any remaining moisture in the form of freezing
drizzle/mist. We expect an expansion of freezing drizzle in areal
coverage to occur over the next few hours, and the freezing
drizzle to also expand south as the colder air moves further south
into North Texas. As drier air moves in from the north this
afternoon, this will end the drizzle and mist from north to
south.

As mentioned above, a snow band formed over Central Oklahoma
earlier tonight and has been progressing south over the past few
hours. Hi-res guidance is latching on to this band of light snow,
and brings the snow across North Texas this morning. Have added a
chance for light snow across the northwestern half of the CWA this
morning, and then expand a slight chance for light snow into
Central Texas this afternoon. The better chances for light snow
are along and north of Interstate 20, but it is possible at least
some snow flakes occur south of I-20 this afternoon. Along and
north of I-20, a light dusting of snow may occur, in addition to
light accumulations of ice due to freezing drizzle. Not all areas
will be impacted by ice, and our main concern continues to be
bridges and overpasses with some accumulations also possible on
cars, mailboxes, street signs, and other exposed metal surfaces.
In some areas north and west of the DFW Metroplex, a glaze of ice
may be able to form on some streets and roads, but widespread icy
roads are not expected.

The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to the area along
and north of a Goldthwaite to Meridian to Cleburne to Cooper line.
It remains in effect through Noon, but it may have to be expanded
and extended for our southwestern counties this afternoon
depending on precipitation trends.

[Ralph's Weather]

Freezing temps are ahead of HRRR. HRRR shows the freezing line too not progress further which I doubt will be true. I could see it reaching Tyler and Longview. It shows a dusting for all of NTX.

[Ntxw]

32F now at DFW with freezing drizzle. Snow is a bit WNW of the airport. The next 7 days including today is forecasted for freezes. December has 4 already so that brings it to 11, matching all of last winter.

The next ~72 hours will likely be below freezing. Lows in the low to mid teens and highs in the 20s

[Ntxw]

Also as usual, GFS got the coup d'état with the synoptic pattern medium and long range taking the Euro to the woodshed, but in the end it fumbled with the arctic air mass to the hi res models. After days in the short range showing it would not get below freezing until Sunday night (tonight) it has finally given up on it. NAM has done better modeling the air mass itself

[Ralph's Weather]

Also as usual, GFS got the coup d'état with the synoptic pattern medium and long range taking the Euro to the woodshed, but in the end it fumbled with the arctic air mass to the hi res models. After days in the short range showing it would not get below freezing until Sunday night (tonight) it has finally given up on it. NAM has done better modeling the air mass itself

At least we know these biases and can account for them. No surprises so far with this Artic intrusion.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning!! Happy New Year's Eve!

Good assessment Ntxw. I personally like analyzing the NAM model for now over the past several years. It continues to perform quite well in the short-medium term as far as winter-time features and overall synoptics.It is a good model tool for the winter season for sure.

Now, tropical cyclones, well not so much...This particular. thought is for another time lol...

[Ntxw]