Texas Winter 2017-2018

[South Texas Storms]

Hard to believe we are now near 24 hours of the first flakes to fall in Texas. The angst will only get worse!

0z suite coming shortly

Hoping for wetter trends in the 0z runs! NAM starts running in about 15 minutes.

[TheAustinMan]

Partial thickness nomograms for Austin showing what some models say about how the precip transitions Monday night and Tuesday night for Austin. Generally they show rain up until around 1-2 AM Tuesday when the lower atmosphere becomes a bit more conducive for the beginnings of some frozen precip (the ZR/R and ZR/IP regions on the chart). Looking at the skew-ts though surface temperatures will remain above freezing up until 4 AM Tuesday (with the models into the IP/ZR zone by that point) with the atmosphere primed for sleeting activity in Austin. Models generally show thermal conditions supporting snow beginning in the afternoon, but disagreement remains between the models depicted below over whether or not there will be sufficient moisture to support snowfall by that time.

[EtoileTX]

Ground temperatures are cold. The last two mornings i have awoken to frozen puddles in my driveway. Shouldn't take very long for anything to stick once it drops below freezing here in deep east tx

[Ralph's Weather]

The NAM is getting in range now. Other 0Z models will run shortly. The data this evening will be very interesting to watch. 0Z HRRX also currently running so that should give us a hi res view of tomorrow.

[cheezyWXguy]

0z nam is interesting. Still very little winter precip in dfw, but definitely looks like more precip overall and a little further north. Also looks like it’s still overestimating the high a bit, but this seems to be a small step in the right direction for dfw.

[Ntxw]

0z NAM is still largely the same. Most of the snow is east of I-45 into the Arklatex for maybe up to an inch. Mix in central Texas so far in the run

Max 2" SW of Tyler

[hriverajr]

I want a strong high. Del Rio has gotten nothing this winter

[stormlover2013]

Nam is really nothing special

[Ralph's Weather]

0z NAM is still largely the same. Most of the snow is east of I-45 into the Arklatex for maybe up to an inch. Mix in central Texas so far in the run

Max 2" SW of Tyler

It is very rare that we are the hotspot so I will be very happy with the storm if it plays out as currently modeled. Even better if the focus is NW of Tyler.

[Haris]

0z NAM is still largely the same. Most of the snow is east of I-45 into the Arklatex for maybe up to an inch. Mix in central Texas so far in the run

Max 2" SW of Tyler

NAM remains dry for N TX but ramps freezing precipitation for Austin even more with another band developing of snow/ice on hour 45 after the initial line. NAM 3k through 35 hours fairly dry, even for atx

[sphelps8681]

Tuesday is my birthday!! Would love to see some snow.

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow: It hasn't happened yet to be a bust.

18z GEFS looks like it actually bumped up totals for DFW. Maybe up to 0.2", this will be a hair splitter! The difference between sub 0.1" to 0.2" will be pretty big given this setup. Dusting vs. 3"!

In February 2014 (13/14 winter) there was an event with extremely low qpf. We were talking hundredths of an inch. The forums here we were clipping out soundings of beautiful dendritic growth profiles and it panned out. This series of events became notorious here because it was one of the rare times we beat Steve McCauley's stat method

Definitely one of my favorite events. Those ratios would be rare even for Ohio.

[Ntxw]

HRRRx is a little more optimistic as it is wetter to 28hrs. Closer to the non-american models

[bubba hotep]

00z HRRRx is looking good so far:

[stormlover2013]

Either hrrx is wrong or the nam is really wrong lol

[Ntxw]

We will take this and run with it! Texarkana and Tyler are sitting well with the HRRRx probably bullseye there like the CMC and Euro

[bubba hotep]

18z Texas Tech expanded the precip shield NW vs. 12z, so trying to tease out some trends.

[Ntxw]

RGEM is up next, will it hold course?

[bubba hotep]

Looking at the latest SREF for DFW, removing the members that show 0.00" QPF results in two clusters with a mean 0.11" QPF. There is a higher cluster, so some potential to go higher than 0.11", if this was rain then no one would blink an eye trying to squeeze out an extra 0.05" lol

[iorange55]

I’m feeling more optimistic tonight. I think the HRRRX is gonna pull out a surprising win. Like others have been saying, with this set up, we don’t really need a lot of precip. We just need some and I think we’re gonna get that.