Texas Winter 2017-2018
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- Rgv20
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Not everyday you see Winter Storm Watches/Warnings and Winter Weather Advisory from North Texas down to the Rio Grande Valley!
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
That looks to be more snow in our area Tyler/Longivew/Lindale rather than just 2-3 inches @Ralph'sWeather
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I am not a meteorologist. Any post from me should be taken as hobby or fun educational information, but not an accurate source for weather information. Please, refer to your local weather station or National Weather Service for the most up to date information. 

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
It seems to stick with most of the precip outside the immediate Dallas/Fort Worth area though, especially FTW side, but it's hard to see without a close up county map
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I'm a Princess, not a forecaster.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Latest HRRRx has about 11 hours of precipitation for DFW, change over time will play a big role.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
It seems to stick with most of the precip outside the immediate Dallas/Fort Worth area though, especially FTW side, but it's hard to see without a close up county map
The key is that the precip is around and it’s very close.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

People I think are in mindset of 32F when roads are just wet and things melt on contact, very wrong in this case.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Good late morning everyone! Sitting at my office in Dallas, and everyone is buzzing around hoping for a snow day tomorrow! Fingers crossed we get some good precipitation!
!

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Brandon8181 wrote:That looks to be more snow in our area Tyler/Longivew/Lindale rather than just 2-3 inches @Ralph'sWeather
Could be, especially if the changeover from sleet happens sooner than expected. With .25 to maybe over .5" QPF totals could get impressive if snow begins early.
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- Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Morning folks! Latest 16z HRRR shows ice then a band of snow! Austin TX looks to be getting a decent storm
Ice accumulations IMO will be 1/10"
Snow and sleet up to 1"
Ice accumulations IMO will be 1/10"
Snow and sleet up to 1"
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
- CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Remember what I posted about the crazy Halloween analogy, and how cold La lina's have happened more than warm ones since 1950, and in the 104 years of records there hasn't been 3 consecutive warmer than average winters. This is a classic cold La Nina, and there has been at least 1 or 2 good winter events for NTX when these cold La Nina's happen, and party is just getting started.

FYI, the average monthly mean is currently - 3.5 and will continue to drop this week. We are also just .62" below the the monthly precipitation, this will improve.


FYI, the average monthly mean is currently - 3.5 and will continue to drop this week. We are also just .62" below the the monthly precipitation, this will improve.
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Remember also the ratios. Models are showing snowfall amounts based on a 1:10 ratio. At first this will likely apply, but as the cold air continues to usher in, especially in N and NE Texas, ratios will likely climb, allowing for slightly higher accumulations.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
CaptinCrunch wrote:Remember what I posted about the crazy Halloween analogy, and how cold La lina's have happened more than warm ones since 1950, and in the 104 years of records there hasn't been 3 consecutive warmer than average winters. This is a classic cold La Nina, and there has been at least 1 or 2 good winter events for NTX when these cold La Nina's happen, and party is just getting started.![]()
It is also an elusive east based Nina. We haven't seen one in a long while. 2013/2014 almost qualified as east based Nina but came up just short of 5 trimonthlies at nino 3.4. We want west based El Nino, or East based Nina. The placement of forcings is just better for their respective ENSO events.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
CaptinCrunch wrote:Remember what I posted about the crazy Halloween analogy, and how cold La lina's have happened more than warm ones since 1950, and in the 104 years of records there hasn't been 3 consecutive warmer than average winters. This is a classic cold La Nina, and there has been at least 1 or 2 good winter events for NTX when these cold La Nina's happen, and party is just getting started.![]()
FYI, the average monthly mean is currently - 3.5 and will continue to drop this week. We are also just .62" below the the monthly precipitation, this will improve.
Hi captain. There may be signs of trough retrogression. Imo, the trough has been too far East, but perhaps that will change. I'm more than ready for a blockbuster winter storm. It's been missing it here in Jonesboro Arkansas unfortunately.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
I think main concern may ultimately be fzr and sleet events over snow, depends on depth of cold air
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Latest run of the HRRRX continues to look very good for DFW area...


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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
iorange55 wrote:Latest run of the HRRRX continues to look very good for DFW area...
I am praying this verifies! The kids and I would love a snow day!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
So will we see the freezing rain, sleet and snow before it dips below freezing or after?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
At noon it is 57 and sunny in Richardson. South winds and some clouds moving in from the south. My wife just said “it’s a beautiful day, you really think it’s gonna snow tonight?”
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Nothing yet on radar but by this afternoon, every pixel of qpf will be over-analyzed by us! Leave no puff of cloud unturned...


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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
16Z HRRR still offers hope.


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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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