Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

0z Euro looks to have a little snow in Dallas next Thursday Night

Actually most of the state gets a little

[Brent]

[missygirl810]

:eek:

http://i64.tinypic.com/qntco8.png

I wish!!! lol

[Brent]

the GFS did have some light snow in East Texas next Thursday so the idea isn't completely out of left field

[wxman22]

Interesting....

[Brent]

I like how it changes back to rain before it ends

[wxman22]

That’s because it shows a cold core low so the snow only falls under the pocket of cold air as it passes by. The Gfs shows the same system it just doesn’t dig it until it moves east of us,while the Euro digs the system sooner.

[Ntxw]

Just don't be in bullseye 7+ days out and you are good!

[Ntxw]

End of 6z GFS has -50s+ in N-Central Canada! Wowza

[Yukon Cornelius]

:eek:

Oh imagine that, a little blank spot right over WF and surrounding areas...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it down to 22 again this morning. I think the forecast was somewhere around 28.

[Ntxw]

Made it down to 22 again this morning. I think the forecast was somewhere around 28.

About the same for DFW, roughly 5 degrees lower than forecast. Don't even get me started with the GFS, it had a low of 43 on the 6z even and it was really 33. There is a problem with this model's surface temps. I'm not sure why it hasn't been addressed but I'm not even talking long range...getting pathetic how bad it is even within 24 hours.

Literally any cold blast I can shave off 10-15 degrees on the GFS and be better than it every-time..it's sad.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it down to 22 again this morning. I think the forecast was somewhere around 28.

About the same for DFW, roughly 5 degrees lower than forecast. Don't even get me started with the GFS, it had a low of 43 on the 6z even and it was really 33. There is a problem with this model's surface temps. I'm not sure why it hasn't been addressed but I'm not even talking long range...getting pathetic how bad it is even within 24 hours.

Literally any cold blast I can shave off 10-15 degrees on the GFS and be better than it every-time..it's sad.

Exactly. Almost every low since winter started and especially during the cold outbreaks has been significantly lower than the forecasted low. Most of the highs have been decently close, except for when its gotten warm. During the warmth the highs have been around 5 degrees warmer than forecasted. Its been interesting watching all of the forecast busts for sure.

[Ralph's Weather]

Made it down to 22 again this morning. I think the forecast was somewhere around 28.

Made 25 at my place forecasted to be 33 per NWS yesterday afternoon.

[weatherdude1108]

EWX office suggests decreasing QPF trend for Saturday, and maybe more freezing temps late next week. Freezing or not, I need rain in my yard. If this were Spring and Summer into Fall, I would have cracks in my yard. Thankfully vegetation is dormant. I sense a drought creeping in, rearing its ugly head.


.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Rising dewpoints will have mixed out/leveled off somewhat for late
Thursday afternoon, leading to a rapid rise in low level moisture by
late Thursday evening. Given that nighttime winds may still decouple
some, a few areas may see min temps around midnight with a steady or
slow warming trend early Friday morning. Patchy fog is suggested for
central and eastern counties per MOS guidances, but am less eager to
add fog in some of the higher terrain areas where the higher wind
speeds overnight could generate light rain showers or perhaps
drizzle.

A comparison of the deterministic model qpfs over multiple runs
suggest a solid low cloud layer and little or no chance for deeper
convection for Friday into Friday evening. A few solutions depict
some more concentrated qpf over the Hill Country Saturday morning as
the weak front reaches Central TX. Model trends continue slowing the
front and show a light wind field ahead of the front in part due to
some coastal troughing to the SE and a flattening with each run in
regards to the upper trough. This has translated to a decreasing
trend of qpf for daytime Saturday with higher amounts backing up into
N-Central TX and along the upper Coast. Then, Saturday evening,
model consensus brings a more aggressive frontal surge with
developing subsidence aloft further hindering Saturday night rain
chances. Similar to the past trough and cold front, chances for
deeper convection this weekend look increasingly bleak with each new
set of model runs.

The cold front has trended much weaker over the past several runs,
so highs Sunday may wind up being the same or warmer that on Saturday
due to the increased sunshine. Near normal temps are forecast in a
mostly zonal flow pattern aloft through Tuesday with temps and
dewpoints surging high Tuesday night. A higher amplitude trough is
forecast to take shape over the Nrn US next Wednesday, signaling the
potential for more freezing temps possible late next week.

[Snowman67]

NWS-Hou/Galv starting to make mention of the cold air in their forecast discussion

While onshore winds are still set to return late Thurs, the return
of isolated/scattered showers (and fog) may not be until Fri night
to early Sat morning. Models are still indicating the passage of a
shortwave just north of the area late Thurs...but another disturb-
ance moving into the area (from the lower TX coast) late Fri night
will likely be the main impetus for precipitation. Models still on
track for the passage of a cold front late in the day Sat but seem
to be backing off a bit with respect to CAA. At any rate, however,
the building upper ridge in the wake of the front on Sun will help
to clear things out quickly. Though it may be a bit soon, extended
guidance is hinting at the return of much colder temps/winter next
next weekend. 41

[Tireman4]

:eek:

http://i64.tinypic.com/qntco8.png

Well I did as Wxman 57 to blanket the whole, if not almost all of the state in snow. I think that qualifies...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

And again the greater Austin area is the target. Lucy must be really Po'ed at Portastorm telling him if he wanted winter, here it is pal.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Joe Bastardi
‏
Verified account

@BigJoeBastardi
2h2 hours ago
More
Looks like one heck of a February. think snow and or ice will reach the gulf coast again( Texas first) I think #arcticgeddon cold after #thawageddon warmth rivaled by #sonofarcticgeddon Why before the what on http://weatherbell.com Models now seeing what we have been saying

[Tejas89]

Dan Brounoff (KRLD Dallas) just mentioned that the "frigid air will stay locked up in Canada where it belongs. Due to west-east flow."

then he added...
"Until next Wednesday or Thursday."