Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1477
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7541 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:05 am

Portastorm wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
hamburgerman7070 wrote:When is the big time cold coming if it is at all? The euro definitely isn't nearly as cold as gfs. Beginning to wonder if it will get cold again this winter. Dry nw flow isn't exciting at all. I guess I'm really confused more than anything. I guess the cross polar flow isn't going to happen for us.


Cross Polar flow IS happening at this moment. Just because there is cross polar flow doesn’t mean places south of the Canadian border are going to get cold. It just means that our source regions are loaded for us.

With that said, one would think most of you would have learned your lesson by now following each model run to run outside of 3-5 days. Our coldest air has been modeled to be here between the 9th and 16th. The people who know the most on here are persistent it’s coming. What we don’t know is timing and severity.

When I look at the ingredients for the next 16 days, I’d make a heavy wager cold is coming. Precip won’t be talked about until 2/5.

Hell, if we don’t get an arctic front or two, I’ll change my avatar to that ugly burnt orange uterus symbol for a month... ;)


I know ThunderSleetDreams to be a passionate fan of that school who proudly sings about farmers fighting and all that ... so for him to make this bet to change his avatar to honor our state's finest bovine symbol ... well folks, that's huge! LOL.


Gig'em Porta :lol:
5 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1810
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7542 Postby Haris » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:05 am

I am just getting so confused over these models that are sooo crazy . I am doing something I have not done for a year . I won’t look at any model run until Sunday afternoon .
0 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22984
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7543 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:21 am

Wow! The 12Z GFS run (just coming in) is amazing!

Made you look!
7 likes   

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1810
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7544 Postby Haris » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:28 am

wxman57 wrote:Wow! The 12Z GFS run (just coming in) is amazing!

Made you look!

LOL.
0 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5853
Age: 59
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7545 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:29 am

wxman57 wrote:Wow! The 12Z GFS run (just coming in) is amazing!

Made you look!



Sir...sir....that is just not funny...we have folks here that live and die with each model...to make them have a heart stoppage each run...my goodness...what has this Winter done to our Wxman 57? The old, heat em, scorched earth Wxman 57? What a Winter? LOL
4 likes   

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7546 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:34 am

Much less amplified pattern in the long range in the ensembles today. It will be interesting to watch how this all develops. Likely won't have a good idea until this weekend and we will not know about moisture until a day or two out from any potential system.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

stormlover2013

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7547 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:12 am

lol and people were jumping the gun on monday because GFS show some wintry stuff lol, hopefully peeps will learn to not hug and just let it play out till about 2 days out.
0 likes   

rearview
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 14
Joined: Fri Feb 04, 2011 12:21 am
Location: Bryan/College Station, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7548 Postby rearview » Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:55 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Hell, if we don’t get an arctic front or two, I’ll change my avatar to that ugly burnt orange uterus symbol for a month... ;)


Don't be crazy, now... :)
1 likes   

stormlover2013

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7549 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:57 am

GFS and CMC just blah!!! hope it stays like this crawfish season babyy!!!
0 likes   

Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1798
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7550 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:09 pm

Forecasted high of 80 today before the cool front comes through tonight. The rest of the week looks to be nice with highs in the 50s. If by this weekend there still really isn't any signs of extreme cold it looks to a good time to get the garden plowed, manure added and ready for onions.
1 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22790
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7551 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:36 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:lol and people were jumping the gun on monday because GFS show some wintry stuff lol, hopefully peeps will learn to not hug and just let it play out till about 2 days out.


With all due respect, discussion is not hugging anything.

How about providing us more thoughts, when do you think it may get cold again? Or will it all, what is your thoughts on the rest of the season? That adds more to this thread than persistent criticism of other poster's time and effort.
6 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

Lagreeneyes03
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 558
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 10:53 am
Location: Luxurious Lake Grapevine

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7552 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:50 pm

orangeblood wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Pretty good agreement now between the GEFS and EPS with EPS being a bit warmer. The 00z EPS doesn't have any cold air in N. America at the end of the run with a huge western H dominating everything.


Yep, it's going to the biggest threat to end a pattern like this....The Bering Strait Ridge retrograding back towards Siberia instead of down into Alaska/NA. If there is some validity to the overnight runs, my concern would then shift to.... by the time the MJO gets over into Phase 1,2,3 - will there be enough cold air in NA to make this interesting ? That happened last year - by the time the MJO swung around into favorable phases for us, there was no cold to be found


Wasn't something like this one of the early thoughts for winter though? A short but very cold winter followed by an early spring?
0 likes   
I'm a Princess, not a forecaster.

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22790
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7553 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:53 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Pretty good agreement now between the GEFS and EPS with EPS being a bit warmer. The 00z EPS doesn't have any cold air in N. America at the end of the run with a huge western H dominating everything.


Yep, it's going to the biggest threat to end a pattern like this....The Bering Strait Ridge retrograding back towards Siberia instead of down into Alaska/NA. If there is some validity to the overnight runs, my concern would then shift to.... by the time the MJO gets over into Phase 1,2,3 - will there be enough cold air in NA to make this interesting ? That happened last year - by the time the MJO swung around into favorable phases for us, there was no cold to be found


Wasn't something like this one of the early thoughts for winter though? A short but very cold winter followed by an early spring?


It can happen, it is actually Nina climo to be cold early and warm as winter goes on. Nino climo is the opposite. All things equal of course
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38099
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7554 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:57 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Pretty good agreement now between the GEFS and EPS with EPS being a bit warmer. The 00z EPS doesn't have any cold air in N. America at the end of the run with a huge western H dominating everything.


Yep, it's going to the biggest threat to end a pattern like this....The Bering Strait Ridge retrograding back towards Siberia instead of down into Alaska/NA. If there is some validity to the overnight runs, my concern would then shift to.... by the time the MJO gets over into Phase 1,2,3 - will there be enough cold air in NA to make this interesting ? That happened last year - by the time the MJO swung around into favorable phases for us, there was no cold to be found


Wasn't something like this one of the early thoughts for winter though? A short but very cold winter followed by an early spring?


That's what I remember too... a front-loaded winter
0 likes   
#neversummer

Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1798
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7555 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:08 pm

Brent wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Yep, it's going to the biggest threat to end a pattern like this....The Bering Strait Ridge retrograding back towards Siberia instead of down into Alaska/NA. If there is some validity to the overnight runs, my concern would then shift to.... by the time the MJO gets over into Phase 1,2,3 - will there be enough cold air in NA to make this interesting ? That happened last year - by the time the MJO swung around into favorable phases for us, there was no cold to be found


Wasn't something like this one of the early thoughts for winter though? A short but very cold winter followed by an early spring?


That's what I remember too... a front-loaded winter

Same here
0 likes   
#neversummer

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7556 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:26 pm

Brent wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Yep, it's going to the biggest threat to end a pattern like this....The Bering Strait Ridge retrograding back towards Siberia instead of down into Alaska/NA. If there is some validity to the overnight runs, my concern would then shift to.... by the time the MJO gets over into Phase 1,2,3 - will there be enough cold air in NA to make this interesting ? That happened last year - by the time the MJO swung around into favorable phases for us, there was no cold to be found


Wasn't something like this one of the early thoughts for winter though? A short but very cold winter followed by an early spring?


That's what I remember too... a front-loaded winter


Looking at the numbers, not even sure you could consider this winter "loaded" at all. Maybe a 2 week stretch out of 8 weeks so far that could be considered winter-like. Dry-cold for DFW though

DFW Winter 2017-18 up to this point.....

Temperatures: Above Normal December, Normal January, ?
Precip: Above Normal December, Below Normal January, ?
Snow: Maybe a Snowflake or two. Now ranks as the longest measurable snow-less period in over 75 years

Unless the 2nd half of Feb can get it's act together....this is another pretty benign winter around this area of the southern plains. You could make an argument that these are the two worst back-back winters since 1998-1999, if Feb can't deliver. I believe Amarillo has the least amount of snowfall in recorded history up to this point in the season
2 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38099
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7557 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:35 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Brent wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Wasn't something like this one of the early thoughts for winter though? A short but very cold winter followed by an early spring?


That's what I remember too... a front-loaded winter


Looking at the numbers, not even sure you could consider this winter "loaded" at all. Maybe a 2 week stretch out of 8 weeks so far that could be considered winter-like. Dry-cold for DFW though

DFW Winter 2017-18 up to this point.....

Temperatures: Above Normal December, Normal January, ?
Precip: Above Normal December, Below Normal January, ?
Snow: Maybe a Snowflake or two. Now ranks as the longest measurable snow-less period in over 75 years

Unless the 2nd half of Feb can get it's act together....this is another pretty benign winter around this area of the southern plains. You could make an argument that these are the two worst back-back winters since 1998-1999, if Feb can't deliver. I believe Amarillo has the least amount of snowfall in recorded history up to this point in the season


3 back to back sad winters... this winter had cold, but man it was lacking in so many other areas. There are reportedly mountains in Colorado with no snow at the end of January :?:
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22790
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7558 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:36 pm

:uarrow: I-20 and north is snow starved, it is pretty bad and we all agree. It has been a tale of two winters in the state.


Side note:

That being said we do need to cut down on some of the banter and complaining about not getting our 1" in of snow in x location. We do not want to transition the Texas Winter threads to be like the heavily modded tropical season threads. Readers do not want to read about chat talk how it is the wimpiest, not a flake, etc in one's backyard for 5 pages. That is my two cents for the day. :D. State what you feel, add information if you can and move on. No one here can make it snow, at the mercy of nature
7 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7559 Postby dhweather » Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:38 pm

dhweather wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:On all of the evening news they were talking about a "four day storm" beginning Feb 10-11 and lasting through Valentine's day, and also made it clear to not pay attention to the social media posts about it, that they don't think it will happen a'la December/Christmas storm that came up Mid-Dec.


Grossly irresponsible of the broadcast media. As a whole, our society is now much more worried about being "first" that being correct, or close to correct.

When it doesn't happen like they are saying, meteorologists as a whole will take the blame, when its primarily broadcast media attention pigs frothing got hype and attention.

The when we have a PDS Tornado Watch this spring, people will blow it off, because of stuff like this. :grr: :grr: :grr:


Wonder what these broadcast types are thinking after reviewing the 12Z GFS? :lol: :lol: :lol:
2 likes   
The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7560 Postby dhweather » Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:40 pm

Ntxw wrote::uarrow: I-20 and north is snow starved, it is pretty bad and we all agree. It has been a tale of two winters in the state.


Side note:

That being said we do need to cut down on some of the banter and complaining about not getting our 1" in of snow in x location. We do not want to transition the Texas Winter threads to be like the heavily modded tropical season threads. Readers do not want to read about chat talk how it is the wimpiest, not a flake, etc in one's backyard for 5 pages. That is my two cents for the day. :D. State what you feel, add information if you can and move on. No one here can make it snow, at the mercy of nature


You say that, but we all know the bi-polar heat/cold miser has the controls for all of the weather in a black box by his desk. He mercilessly toys with us every season. :lol: :lol:
1 likes   
The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 54 guests