Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, if we have this pv split, how long before we feel effects here? Do you think that will be only thing that would save winter at this point?

We've seen PV splits before, and AO tanks after but it does not guarantee cold in the US. The past few times cold was dumped in Europe. I have never been a proponent of NAM flips from -NAO induced strat warmings. If it can do a full scale hudson bay rex block then we can talk but long way from that at this time.

The models are again shifting, the latest runs weaken the Barents block and inching it to the Bering side (sort of) longer range. It is a mess.

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, if we have this pv split, how long before we feel effects here? Do you think that will be only thing that would save winter at this point?

We've seen PV splits before, and AO tanks after but it does not guarantee cold in the US. The past few times cold was dumped in Europe. I have never been a proponent of NAM flips from -NAO induced strat warmings. If it can do a full scale hudson bay rex block then we can talk but long way from that at this time.

The models are again shifting, the latest runs weaken the Barents block and inching it to the Bering side (sort of) longer range. It is a mess.

Ntxw, have you ever heard of ed o toole? He goes by chinomaniac. He lives in england. He posted about the euro on today's run showing an upwelling event induced by the -qbo. It's on twitter. Maybe you can make some light about it.

Also, how would we know if its the real deal or not? Anyway to tell? I agree, they have went overseas, but aren't pv splits different than SSW?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, if we have this pv split, how long before we feel effects here? Do you think that will be only thing that would save winter at this point?

We've seen PV splits before, and AO tanks after but it does not guarantee cold in the US. The past few times cold was dumped in Europe. I have never been a proponent of NAM flips from -NAO induced strat warmings. If it can do a full scale hudson bay rex block then we can talk but long way from that at this time.

The models are again shifting, the latest runs weaken the Barents block and inching it to the Bering side (sort of) longer range. It is a mess.

Ntxw, have you ever heard of ed o toole? He goes by chinomaniac. He lives in england. He posted about the euro on today's run showing an upwelling event induced by the -qbo. It's on twitter. Maybe you can make some light about it.

I just checked, he is talking about the troposphere helping the strat. The point of an SSW is to get the tropo to react but in this case he thinks it is bottom up. Thus response is quicker vs bottom down warming is what I interpret

The point of an SSW is to disrupt/destroy the vortex. Decreases zonal winds. A split may count as an SSW

[hamburgerman7070]

We've seen PV splits before, and AO tanks after but it does not guarantee cold in the US. The past few times cold was dumped in Europe. I have never been a proponent of NAM flips from -NAO induced strat warmings. If it can do a full scale hudson bay rex block then we can talk but long way from that at this time.

The models are again shifting, the latest runs weaken the Barents block and inching it to the Bering side (sort of) longer range. It is a mess.

Ntxw, have you ever heard of ed o toole? He goes by chinomaniac. He lives in england. He posted about the euro on today's run showing an upwelling event induced by the -qbo. It's on twitter. Maybe you can make some light about it.

I just checked, he is talking about the troposphere helping the strat. The point of an SSW is to get the tropo to react but in this case he thinks it is bottom up. Thus response is quicker vs bottom down warming is what I interpret

The point of an SSW is to disrupt/destroy the vortex. Decreases zonal winds. A split may count as an SSW

I gotcha. I thought it was interesting, considering its from the euro. I know Dr. Cohen gets more excited over splits than SSW for some reason. I'm trying to be optimistic for a few more weeks of winter and maybe a winter storm

[CaptinCrunch]

We will have good days durig Feb, highs in the 50's lows in the 30s, that's still good fireplace weather

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Winter Cancel!

Let's move on to the Texas Summer thread because the only springs we have around here are found in our sofas and mattresses.

[Texas Snowman]

I'm not sure we'll see any additional winter weather in Texas.

You do realize my good sir that failure to deliver the wintry goods to North Texas would nullify any and all previous agreements made concerning summer?

I would say that I did pretty good in delivering lots of cold and ice across Texas this winter. Don't be greedy. And it's not summer I want - that's always warm. It's next winter (or lack thereof)

No sir, you owed Portastorm and others for your Heat Miser shenanigans of the past.

Now it’s North Texas or bust. Otherwise, the resistance lives.

#MoreTexasWinter
#MoreTexasCold
#MoreTexasSnow
#NeverSummer

[Brent]

Winter Cancel!

Now that ought to cover it...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Winter Cancel!

Now that ought to cover it...

I’ve been calling it since November 1.

[aggiecutter]

Winter Cancel!

Now that ought to cover it...

Well, it looks like the DFW metroplex has replaced Austin as the snowless capitol of Texas.

[Brent]

Winter Cancel!

Now that ought to cover it...

Well, it looks like the DFW metroplex has replaced Austin as the snowless capitol of Texas.

pretty much

Even Brownsville has had more snow than us

Be 3 years in March since I've seen more than a light dusting here

[arizona_sooner]

Heck it's been winter cancel in Phoenix since November. I think we have only had two days with highs below 60 this "winter" and my tomato plants are going crazy! I would really prefer some subtropical jet stream action going to give all of us a little moisture and cooler weather (at least out west).

[Lagreeneyes03]

So if we've got a cancelled "winter" (winter precip and the like)
what does that mean for late "calendar winter" (early march) severe weather? Maybe we can get some rain?

[Ntxw]

So if we've got a cancelled "winter" (winter precip and the like)
what does that mean for late "calendar winter" (early march) severe weather? Maybe we can get some rain?

Post second year Nina. Heat and drought will grow as the year goes unless the Pacific comes to the rescue. History says slim chance.

The drought is real, drought begets more drought.

We joke around about dry cold but the dry conditions have been since Harvey hit. I made posts about how historical cases have extended droughts after a big hurricane hits Texas in the summer and fall threads.

[Brent]

yeah I haven't completely given up on winter yet(my season cancel did work one time I did it for some people... )(and I'm going to NYC in 2 weeks so maybe it'll at least snow there) but yeah within a few weeks the focus will really shift away from winter and towards the drought which is inevitable I think. I got a feeling like I've said before the hot summer people are gonna be happy this year

and yeah I said a few weeks ago Harvey killed the weather here and its really rang true... what has happened since? Basically nothing

[bubba hotep]

New Euro Weeklies heard y'all and basically say "winter cancel" with the only positive sign being a return to normal or above normal rainfall for areas east of I35. NW Texas and Oklahoma are bone dry. It does look like some cooler risk return for March but climo is working hard against us by then.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Heck it's been winter cancel in Phoenix since November. I think we have only had two days with highs below 60 this "winter" and my tomato plants are going crazy! I would really prefer some subtropical jet stream action going to give all of us a little moisture and cooler weather (at least out west).

I have a friend in Arizona that’s been bragging about his bumper crop constant harvests of tomatoes and peppers. Crazy!

[Yukon Cornelius]

All joking aside, it’s honestly hard to believe that a couple weeks ago we were all geared up for how cold February was suppose to be and today we are coming to reality that winter honestly could be done. It’s amazing how fast things changed.

[Brent]

New Euro Weeklies heard y'all and basically say "winter cancel" with the only positive sign being a return to normal or above normal rainfall for areas east of I35. NW Texas and Oklahoma are bone dry. It does look like some cooler risk return for March but climo is working hard against us by then.

yeah this is going to become an increasing problem... if the cold stays in the long range, soon the long range will be spring...

[Lagreeneyes03]

So if we've got a cancelled "winter" (winter precip and the like)
what does that mean for late "calendar winter" (early march) severe weather? Maybe we can get some rain?

Post second year Nina. Heat and drought will grow as the year goes unless the Pacific comes to the rescue. History says slim chance.

The drought is real, drought begets more drought.

We joke around about dry cold but the dry conditions have been since Harvey hit. I made posts about how historical cases have extended droughts after a big hurricane hits Texas in the summer and fall threads.

So a sparse severe storm season then? I have a feeling then by your comments the cap will be there, and strong. I remember seeing things earlier saying we'd have an active tornado season, but that's one thing I can do without. I was driving through Canton, TX during the tornadoes in April and it was horrifying and scary.