Code: Select all
Tahiti
Feb 1: 1006.50
Feb 2: 1006.50
Feb 3: 1007
Feb 4: 1005
Feb 5: 1000
Feb 6: 1002
Feb 7: 1003.25
Feb 8: 1004.75
Darwin:
Feb 1: 1005.25
Feb 2: 1005.25
Feb 3: 1007.75
Feb 4: 1006.75
Feb 5: 1006.50
Feb 6: 1005.25
Feb 7: 1006.25
Feb 8: 1007.25
Per the 12Z Euro, we're going to see pretty substantial drops in MSLP over Tahiti and normal/higher than normal MSLP over Darwin for the 1st 10 days of February. We'll more than likely see the SOI tank as big negatives on the daily SOI popup, between -20 and -30. This means that more than likely we'll see a significant WWB and SST warming over the CPAC. This coincides well with what has become the norm since 2014 -- a WWB in February. It doesn't mean that an El Nino for ASO is favored as we still need to see what happens in March/April, but it will definitely open the door for one.