ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO
@webberweather
Using RMM, the MJO has spent ~ 10 days in phase 6-7 w/ amplitude between 3.5-4 sigma! Yikes. This is almost certainly going to trigger a massive downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave that'll cross the EQ Pacific in March. You can kiss this La Nina good bye. #lolmodoki #ElNino #climate
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/962016268453892096
@webberweather
I'm raising the red flag that the Eq Pacific is about to make a huge adjustment towards El Nino this spring. It's far from guaranteed obviously, and dependent on further coupling but this La Nina will almost certainly dissipate when this Kelvin Wave reaches the EP in late Mar-Apr
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/962017381030674433
Using RMM, the MJO has spent ~ 10 days in phase 6-7 w/ amplitude between 3.5-4 sigma! Yikes. This is almost certainly going to trigger a massive downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave that'll cross the EQ Pacific in March. You can kiss this La Nina good bye. #lolmodoki #ElNino #climate
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/962016268453892096
@webberweather
I'm raising the red flag that the Eq Pacific is about to make a huge adjustment towards El Nino this spring. It's far from guaranteed obviously, and dependent on further coupling but this La Nina will almost certainly dissipate when this Kelvin Wave reaches the EP in late Mar-Apr
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/962017381030674433
3 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO
Euro has some very low pressures near Tahiti due to a TC for the next week or so. I would expect the SOI to continue negative for at least the next week.
3 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 21
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO
Still lots of questions going into the season. The subsurface looks to show some warmth, but still locked up west of the dateline, unless we get a crazy WWB, it'll probably be a while before that warmth reaches east enough to really start a significant El Nino. I personally think that it'll be +Neutral/Very weak Nino for the season, since there are no real strong signals for either side. I look forward to having many discussions about the season during the Spring!
1 likes
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO
Interesting discussion thread on Twitter that has Eric Blake's attention. Ntxw,what is your take on what is going on with this?
@EricBlake12
Rather prolonged westerly wind burst over the central/western Pacific continuing- really setting the stage for an ENSO transition this Spring
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/962371230144909315
@EricBlake12
A bit early. One more big event and #ElNino is very much on the table
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/962371707641253888
@webberweather
The Kelvin Wave this WWB is liable to generate may be of comparable intensity to the ones that preceded the 1997-98 & 2015-16 super NINOs given the extreme longevity & intensity of this MJO pulse. Even the very modest WWB in mid-December generated a downwelling wave w/ +5C anoms
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/962372962405044225
@EricBlake12
It should be sizable. I don’t think it will rival those yet because of the lack of strong winds directly on the equator (smidge too early), but yeah it definitely has my attention
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/962373891376254978
@webberweather
Yeah it's a bit early but the EQ Pacific is very receptive to high freq variability at this time of the year in any case. I concur we need another pulse follow this one up in Apr or so when this downwelling wave reaches the E boundary region and begins to perturb the Walker Cell
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/962375675364757504
@EricBlake12
MJO strength will be key too. If it keeps this magnitude- very interesting
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/962377090460012544
@webberweather
A record high +PMM this past January coupled w/ a cool east Atlantic MDR are often early warning signs for an impending El Nino event & have been documented to augment/precede them on a regular basis. We'll see. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 64381/full …
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10 ... JCLI2473.1 …
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/962379418416177154
@EricBlake12
Oh yeah. There are a lot of flags waving now. Climate models just aren’t where they need to be to really assist either. Wild West Nino forecasts still
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/962380372192489472
@PaulRoundy1
Even climate models with nearly perfect dynamics will never be able to predict this type of evolution in a deterministic sense, because of dependence on the evolutions of synoptic and subseasonal events that are only marginally predictable on these timescales.
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/962388246020935680
@EricBlake12
Rather prolonged westerly wind burst over the central/western Pacific continuing- really setting the stage for an ENSO transition this Spring
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/962371230144909315
@EricBlake12
A bit early. One more big event and #ElNino is very much on the table
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/962371707641253888
@webberweather
The Kelvin Wave this WWB is liable to generate may be of comparable intensity to the ones that preceded the 1997-98 & 2015-16 super NINOs given the extreme longevity & intensity of this MJO pulse. Even the very modest WWB in mid-December generated a downwelling wave w/ +5C anoms
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/962372962405044225
@EricBlake12
It should be sizable. I don’t think it will rival those yet because of the lack of strong winds directly on the equator (smidge too early), but yeah it definitely has my attention
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/962373891376254978
@webberweather
Yeah it's a bit early but the EQ Pacific is very receptive to high freq variability at this time of the year in any case. I concur we need another pulse follow this one up in Apr or so when this downwelling wave reaches the E boundary region and begins to perturb the Walker Cell
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/962375675364757504
@EricBlake12
MJO strength will be key too. If it keeps this magnitude- very interesting
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/962377090460012544
@webberweather
A record high +PMM this past January coupled w/ a cool east Atlantic MDR are often early warning signs for an impending El Nino event & have been documented to augment/precede them on a regular basis. We'll see. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 64381/full …
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10 ... JCLI2473.1 …
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/962379418416177154
@EricBlake12
Oh yeah. There are a lot of flags waving now. Climate models just aren’t where they need to be to really assist either. Wild West Nino forecasts still
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/962380372192489472
@PaulRoundy1
Even climate models with nearly perfect dynamics will never be able to predict this type of evolution in a deterministic sense, because of dependence on the evolutions of synoptic and subseasonal events that are only marginally predictable on these timescales.
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/962388246020935680
4 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO
They make very good points as usual. Love reading their back and forth discussions in regards to ENSO. They're right on point with saying that we need a follow up pulse by April to propel the ENSO state into El Nino. But I don't know if this can be comparable to the 2015 Super Nino. The 2015 Super Nino had the field set and a lot going in its favor due to the prior year, 2014 being a weak El Nino. Actually if it weren't for the wind activity being un-supportive, the 2014 El Nino was set to be a strong one. The Pacific surface was much warmer as a whole and I believe the subsurface was warmer than it is now + the atmosphere was in an El Nino phase (due to the 2014 Nino).
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO
Still in the long range but it looks like a WWB starting to materialize east of the dateline. If it materializes, it'll have a bigger impact since it's situated closer to the Nino regions.
2 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO
Down welling Kelvin Wave in full force:
Let's see how strong the sub surface warm pool will get.
Let's see how strong the sub surface warm pool will get.
3 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:
They make very good points as usual. Love reading their back and forth discussions in regards to ENSO. They're right on point with saying that we need a follow up pulse by April to propel the ENSO state into El Nino. But I don't know if this can be comparable to the 2015 Super Nino. The 2015 Super Nino had the field set and a lot going in its favor due to the prior year, 2014 being a weak El Nino. Actually if it weren't for the wind activity being un-supportive, the 2014 El Nino was set to be a strong one. The Pacific surface was much warmer as a whole and I believe the subsurface was warmer than it is now + the atmosphere was in an El Nino phase (due to the 2014 Nino).
I have absolutely NO idea what any of that means at all in relation to real weather we see on a daily basis.
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO
WeatherGuesser wrote:Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:
They make very good points as usual. Love reading their back and forth discussions in regards to ENSO. They're right on point with saying that we need a follow up pulse by April to propel the ENSO state into El Nino. But I don't know if this can be comparable to the 2015 Super Nino. The 2015 Super Nino had the field set and a lot going in its favor due to the prior year, 2014 being a weak El Nino. Actually if it weren't for the wind activity being un-supportive, the 2014 El Nino was set to be a strong one. The Pacific surface was much warmer as a whole and I believe the subsurface was warmer than it is now + the atmosphere was in an El Nino phase (due to the 2014 Nino).
I have absolutely NO idea what any of that means at all in relation to real weather we see on a daily basis.
Webb and Blake were discussing atmospheric and ocean components that affect ENSO. The ENSO state has a direct (or indirect depending on where you live) impact on key variables that control the "real" weather you see on a daily basis.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO
-0.9C at the update this week
1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO
Ntxw wrote:-0.9C at the update this week
We still have a long way to go to reach El Niño. Cannot rule out a weak event though. I don’t expect a Strong Niño because it is rare to see such a fast transition between a La Niña and El Niño.
What COULD happen is we see a borderline Niño this year and a significant Niño in 2019-20, but that’s not particularly likely since El Niños rarely last two years, with 2014-16 being a notable exception.
0 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO
Is really impressive how the MJO has mantained in the phase 7 and that may trigger another WWB.1997 is mentioned and only a mention of that year is big.
webberweather
Aside from 2015 & 1997, the persistence/intensity of this MJO event in the Pacific is unmatched & for the 11th day in a row its in phase 7 w/ amplitude > 3.0 sigma. Another WWB looms on the horizon over the dateline which will further amplify the downwelling KW in the WP. #ElNino
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/963098070090240000
webberweather
Aside from 2015 & 1997, the persistence/intensity of this MJO event in the Pacific is unmatched & for the 11th day in a row its in phase 7 w/ amplitude > 3.0 sigma. Another WWB looms on the horizon over the dateline which will further amplify the downwelling KW in the WP. #ElNino
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/963098070090240000
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO
@PaulRoundy1
The growing oceanic Kelvin wave, and comparable period, then an extended period of the wave in early 1997.
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/963099633080782849
The growing oceanic Kelvin wave, and comparable period, then an extended period of the wave in early 1997.
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/963099633080782849
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates
@MJVentrice
CFSv2 on an island of its own it seems. With the WWB over the Pacific that just took place, we are going to see a response in the ocean that favors for warming
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/963151611647455239
CFSv2 on an island of its own it seems. With the WWB over the Pacific that just took place, we are going to see a response in the ocean that favors for warming
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/963151611647455239
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ENSO Updates
while I favor an el niño this year, I do caution the dynamical models are total trash this time of year. The only model I'd give any weight to is the CLIPER
1 likes
Re: ENSO Updates
This is a month ago i know. But at the pace and all the combination of elements needed to even reach
nino thresholds just for one single month looks to be a long way off.Takes a long long time to move oceans heat west to east. Just my 2 cents.
0 likes
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: ENSO Updates
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
This is a month ago i know. But at the pace and all the combination of elements needed to even reach
nino thresholds just for one single month looks to be a long way off.Takes a long long time to move oceans heat west to east. Just my 2 cents.
I have a hard time believing we will see a Super Niño, especially this soon after one two years ago.
0 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 21
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: ENSO Updates
I could maybe see something like a 2012 type of event where there is some warmth, but a true El Nino never fully consolidates, considering another La Nina isn't likely, but a full flown Nino is also not likely
Last edited by weathaguyry on Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Re: ENSO Updates
Historical odds do not favor El Nino. More neutral. However, historical odds is just that and a probability. Whether there is a Nino or not is dependent on the wind and ocean stresses that occur in the Pacific. Last year the window was very small and the odds are daunting. It's just difficult to get another Nino so quickly after a Super.
There is a Nino after the 2nd year Nina, 2009-2010 so it's not as unforgiving as a year ago, from a probability standpoint.
It's just one stepping stone. We need a WWB in March most likely to follow it up.
1972-1973 was another after two years of Nina, post another Nino.
There is a Nino after the 2nd year Nina, 2009-2010 so it's not as unforgiving as a year ago, from a probability standpoint.
It's just one stepping stone. We need a WWB in March most likely to follow it up.
1972-1973 was another after two years of Nina, post another Nino.
2 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: CourierPR, duilaslol, kenayers, kevin, riapal, Sps123, StormPyrate, StormWeather, wwizard and 107 guests