Texas Winter 2017-2018

[wxman57]

Surprisingly, without lack of extreme cold talk, DFW is now almost to mid month and -3.3F below normal..might get our first back to back official below winter months since Washington crossed the Delaware

More evidence that I really delivered on my promise last winter, though I suspect that your statement about the last time the DFW area had back-to-back below-normal monthly average temps may be a slight exaggeration. It's not easy bringing cold and ice to Texas with a strong La Nina raging in the Pacific.

At IAH, the temperature this month is runnint 1.6F above normal, which seems odd since it has been so persistently cold. I counted the number of 70+ high days so far since Dec. 20th and I got 13. Last year at this time, we'd had 49 days when the high hit 70+, and highs around now were in the mid to upper 80s.

[srainhoutx]

Surprisingly, without lack of extreme cold talk, DFW is now almost to mid month and -3.3F below normal..might get our first back to back official below winter months since Washington crossed the Delaware

More evidence that I really delivered on my promise last winter, though I suspect that your statement about the last time the DFW area had back-to-back below-normal monthly average temps may be a slight exaggeration. It's not easy bringing cold and ice to Texas with a strong La Nina raging in the Pacific.

At IAH, the temperature this month is runnint 1.6F above normal, which seems odd since it has been so persistently cold. I counted the number of 70+ high days so far since Dec. 20th and I got 13. Last year at this time, we'd had 49 days when the high hit 70+, and highs around now were in the mid to upper 80s.

Also last year we were looking at a Severe Weather event here is SE Texas that hit Valentine's Days. What a difference a year makes.

[Yukon Cornelius]

And just like that the forecasts has completely 180ed again, brining back precip chances and cool temps. Are the forecasts from the NWS computer generated using a consensus of the models? I feel like this is the reason that lately that have changed back and forth numerous times a day.

[bubba hotep]

It's still chilly and nasty out there and with a high impact solar event to hit the Northern Hemisphere today, things could change down the road. The sun has been extremely quiet throughout the Winter and now we are seeing solar activity pick up. The MJO after being stuck in a very high amplitude in Phase 7 looks to trend toward a less amplified Phase 8 which impacts our part of the World. The latest CFSv2 Climate Models suggest March may come in like a lion with more wild weather and below normal temperatures. Time will tell.

Yep, Hello -AO/-NAO...coupled with a swing into Phase 2/3 by March and things could get wild in the US for next month

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... hem_65.png

Models kind of jumped the gun on the -AO/NAO but now both the GEFS and Euro EPS are showing that in the longer run. The biggest problem is that they are also showing a -PNA with a neutral WPO/EPO, that could make it hard to build big cold anomalies in WCAN. Climo starts working against Texas in March and we need much stronger cold anomalies than we do in Jan/Feb. On the flip side, we should stay wet and portions of Texas could flip to above normal precipitation by the time we reach March. We will need the Pacific jet to extend back across the Pacific to help amp up the wave breaking giving us a better shot at a -EPO. I'm just happy that the models are showing an active Pacific, with both the GEFS and EPS in agreement on the retracted jet:



In the longer range, the ensemble means smooth things too much to really see details but the GFS points to a continued active pattern as we head into March with the Pacific jet staying retracted with a parade of systems.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Surprisingly, without lack of extreme cold talk, DFW is now almost to mid month and -3.3F below normal..might get our first back to back official below winter months since Washington crossed the Delaware

More evidence that I really delivered on my promise last winter, though I suspect that your statement about the last time the DFW area had back-to-back below-normal monthly average temps may be a slight exaggeration. It's not easy bringing cold and ice to Texas with a strong La Nina raging in the Pacific.

At IAH, the temperature this month is runnint 1.6F above normal, which seems odd since it has been so persistently cold. I counted the number of 70+ high days so far since Dec. 20th and I got 13. Last year at this time, we'd had 49 days when the high hit 70+, and highs around now were in the mid to upper 80s.

Also last year we were looking at a Severe Weather event here is SE Texas that hit Valentine's Days. What a difference a year makes.

Yep, tornado came through my neighborhood. Thanks to technology and wonderful news coverage i saw it coming. Tracked about 1/3 mile away from me. no damage here.

It was around the market bell, (i work in finance) so i was in my bathroom with my mac with the bell ringing that day lol.

[Ntxw]

Agreed the ensemble means will tone down the amplitude. It is good to see the ever present Okhotsk low again

[Ntxw]

And just like that the forecasts has completely 180ed again, brining back precip chances and cool temps. Are the forecasts from the NWS computer generated using a consensus of the models? I feel like this is the reason that lately that have changed back and forth numerous times a day.

They are made by forecasters. Over the past week+ low level cold has presented forecasting problems. Overdependence on modelling vs real time creates this flux for you. Slow with the shallow cold and erode it too fast are common themes we frequently mention. Had a small discussion with STS that models will try hard to pump up heat because of SW flow aloft this week a few days ago.

DFW's high has been lowered from a few days ago due to persistent low level cold and now cloud cover

[TheProfessor]

Well I'm ready for spring. Cold rain is gross, I can't wait till it hits 50 consistently so I can bring the shorts out.

[Yukon Cornelius]

And just like that the forecasts has completely 180ed again, brining back precip chances and cool temps. Are the forecasts from the NWS computer generated using a consensus of the models? I feel like this is the reason that lately that have changed back and forth numerous times a day.

They are made by forecasters. Over the past week+ low level cold has presented forecasting problems. Overdependence on modelling vs real time creates this flux for you. Slow with the shallow cold and erode it too fast are common themes we frequently mention. Had a small discussion with STS that models will try hard to pump up heat because of SW flow aloft this week a few days ago.

DFW's high has been lowered from a few days ago due to persistent low level cold and now cloud cover

I appreciate the response. A couple of the old farmers that I help out have been extremely frustrated with the back and forth forecasts. They really don't know anything about the weather other than what the forecasts are showing so I can see how its been hard on them with decision making. Its been a strange year for all of us in the AG community. Maybe this year has been a good learning point for everyone in that we cant base everything off of model runs.

[Ntxw]

I completely understand their sentiment. We all see weather in the urban areas as novelty while folks in the AG depends on it for a living. My advice to them would be just go with persistence of winter. The continent this season has produced cold compared to prior season, so when cold air comes assume it might be colder than forecast and stick longer.

I criticise the GFS etc for its issues forecasting cold temps, but a lot of the blame is because models are not good at seeing low level cold, they do best with upper flow and it is one of those years where low level cold exists.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What is it that is messing with the models so much? Dont handle forecasting a -EPO well? Persistent NW flow? Surface temps during those two? What are they struggling on?

[Tejas89]

OK with cold rain this weekend, since we need it BAD.

On the whole, this winter has definitely felt more "normal" than the last two despite DFW getting the shaft on any major precip events.

[Ntxw]

What is it that is messing with the models so much? Dont handle forecasting a -EPO well? Persistent NW flow? Surface temps during those two? What are they struggling on?

I would say it is the Pacific. It has not flooded the continent with marine air like guidance keeps trying to do. +EPO forecasts have not held ground.

EPO has been negative all of Feb. Only late Jan was positive

[utweather]

Surprisingly, without lack of extreme cold talk, DFW is now almost to mid month and -3.3F below normal..might get our first back to back official below winter months since Washington crossed the Delaware

More evidence that I really delivered on my promise last winter, though I suspect that your statement about the last time the DFW area had back-to-back below-normal monthly average temps may be a slight exaggeration. It's not easy bringing cold and ice to Texas with a strong La Nina raging in the Pacific.

At IAH, the temperature this month is runnint 1.6F above normal, which seems odd since it has been so persistently cold. I counted the number of 70+ high days so far since Dec. 20th and I got 13. Last year at this time, we'd had 49 days when the high hit 70+, and highs around now were in the mid to upper 80s.

yeah, its pretty strange when a normal winter feels way below normal. I think last winter it was cold here for just a 1-2 week period. Some recent year priors it went straight from fall to spring. I'll just take normal and hope the summers aren't brutal:-)

[bubba hotep]

All eyes to the NAO as we head into March. The correlation between a -NAO and cold in March is probably stronger than any other month.

[NotSparta]

Most of the models are showing quite the torch setting up soon

Depends on where you are at but I don't see anything torchy in Texas with the upcoming pattern. The pattern doesn't look overly conducive for a cold blast in Texas but temps will swing b/w mild and cool with a deep western trough and systems kicking out. Plenty of rain chances but unfortunately the Panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas look to stay dry.

Maybe it's because I'm in the Great Lakes area which should expect more of a torch but it looks like more heat that cold, especially as you go further SE

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Surprisingly, without lack of extreme cold talk, DFW is now almost to mid month and -3.3F below normal..might get our first back to back official below winter months since Washington crossed the Delaware

More evidence that I really delivered on my promise last winter, though I suspect that your statement about the last time the DFW area had back-to-back below-normal monthly average temps may be a slight exaggeration. It's not easy bringing cold and ice to Texas with a strong La Nina raging in the Pacific.

At IAH, the temperature this month is runnint 1.6F above normal, which seems odd since it has been so persistently cold. I counted the number of 70+ high days so far since Dec. 20th and I got 13. Last year at this time, we'd had 49 days when the high hit 70+, and highs around now were in the mid to upper 80s.

yeah, its pretty strange when a normal winter feels way below normal. I think last winter it was cold here for just a 1-2 week period. Some recent year priors it went straight from fall to spring. I'll just take normal and hope the summers aren't brutal:-)

I got my electric bill over the weekend and it was almost Summer like with the charges. Big screw up my part not going with a natural gas unit, but oh well. Anyhow the period covered 12/23 through 1/23 and the power consumption bar graph showing last Jan compared to this Jan was remarkable. Right next to it noted the average temp for last year at that time was 71. This year 55.

So much for the warmer than average winter.

[Portastorm]

Surprisingly, without lack of extreme cold talk, DFW is now almost to mid month and -3.3F below normal..might get our first back to back official below winter months since Washington crossed the Delaware

More evidence that I really delivered on my promise last winter, though I suspect that your statement about the last time the DFW area had back-to-back below-normal monthly average temps may be a slight exaggeration. It's not easy bringing cold and ice to Texas with a strong La Nina raging in the Pacific.

At IAH, the temperature this month is runnint 1.6F above normal, which seems odd since it has been so persistently cold. I counted the number of 70+ high days so far since Dec. 20th and I got 13. Last year at this time, we'd had 49 days when the high hit 70+, and highs around now were in the mid to upper 80s.

yeah, its pretty strange when a normal winter feels way below normal. I think last winter it was cold here for just a 1-2 week period. Some recent year priors it went straight from fall to spring. I'll just take normal and hope the summers aren't brutal:-)

Actually it has not been a normal winter for Austin. This has easily been a colder than normal winter. December was a smidge below normal at 0.1 below the average mean temp. January was 1.7 below normal and February is a whopping 4.4 below normal thus far. So if it feels below normal, that's because it IS below normal for us!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Quite drizzly this morning. Sure is nice to see actual precip for a change no matter what form!

[Ntxw]

Keep this in mind when looking at Ensembles for end of month as they smooth out wavetrains. Bubba touched base on this earlier. The Pacific has been kind to us this year.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/963443529946198016




So considering this, it might not be crazy to assume a much more amplified pattern when blocking hits than shown beyond 5 days