Texas Spring 2018
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018
It just doesn't want to warm up this morning. Made it down to 34 last night. Brisk NW wind today with it still only in the 40s. Ill take it while I can.
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#neversummer
- Haris
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Re: Texas Spring 2018
GFS back on board giving ATX 4.3” of rain over the next 7-10 days
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
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Re: Texas Spring 2018
Looking interesting in the rainfall outlook!
6-10 Day Outlook
8-14 Day Outlook
6-10 Day Outlook
8-14 Day Outlook
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018
Encouraging EWX discussion.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 201958
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
258 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
No weather headlines through Wednesday as slightly cooler then
normal low temperatures occur with near normal afternoon highs and
dry, clear conditions.
Northwest mid-level flow overtop a strengthening surface high
pressure system will allow for tranquil conditions across much of
Texas next several days. Humidity has fallen again into the 20 and 30
percentiles this afternoon but winds are quite light due to the weak
pressure gradient. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
are ongoing across the far west Rio Grande Plains but conditions are
vastly improved from yesterday.
Expect the coolest morning of the week Wednesday as dry air and light
winds with clear sky allows for good radiational cooling.
Temperatures will rebound into the 70s and some spot low 80s in the
southwest tomorrow afternoon under the full early Spring insolation
as south winds return.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Confidence in an active and wet pattern continues to increase for
early next week that could persist into mid to late next week. A few
rounds of strong thunderstorms and pockets of heavy rainfall hazards
will need to be monitored for as we get closer to this time period.
Before then, above normal temperatures and dry conditions persist
through late week with only small chance of lighter and limited rain
coverage over the weekend.
Moisture and temperatures will be on the increase by late week as
south to southeast low-level wind fetch develops. A trough across the
west coast and departing eastern low-level ridge will allow for
PWATs to climb into the 1.1-1.3" range. Lows each morning will
increase by 5-8F degrees with lows Friday and Saturday only falling
into the low to mid 60s. Highs into the weekend will be above normal
in the 80s. Low clouds and patchy fog could return Saturday with mist
that morning along with isolated afternoon showers trapped
underneath a strong capping inversion. Due to the inversion strength,
have opted to place shower wording in official forecast vs.
thunderstorm wording at this time.
By late weekend and into early next week, a series of lower latitude
shortwave troughs pivoting across Mexico and the southern four-
corners region will interact with the increased available moisture.
In addition, a frontal boundary may be near the vicinity of south-
central Texas early next week. All combined, with the upper level
lift support and surface frontogenesis forcing possibilities,
multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms appear possible per
this pattern set-up. Mid and long-range global models suggest that
2-5 inches could occur next week over the course of several days as
PWATs increase further to near 1.5". Stay tuned through the late week
and weekend on this developing pattern that could help provide some
relief to the current drought conditions
000
FXUS64 KEWX 201958
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
258 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
No weather headlines through Wednesday as slightly cooler then
normal low temperatures occur with near normal afternoon highs and
dry, clear conditions.
Northwest mid-level flow overtop a strengthening surface high
pressure system will allow for tranquil conditions across much of
Texas next several days. Humidity has fallen again into the 20 and 30
percentiles this afternoon but winds are quite light due to the weak
pressure gradient. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
are ongoing across the far west Rio Grande Plains but conditions are
vastly improved from yesterday.
Expect the coolest morning of the week Wednesday as dry air and light
winds with clear sky allows for good radiational cooling.
Temperatures will rebound into the 70s and some spot low 80s in the
southwest tomorrow afternoon under the full early Spring insolation
as south winds return.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Confidence in an active and wet pattern continues to increase for
early next week that could persist into mid to late next week. A few
rounds of strong thunderstorms and pockets of heavy rainfall hazards
will need to be monitored for as we get closer to this time period.
Before then, above normal temperatures and dry conditions persist
through late week with only small chance of lighter and limited rain
coverage over the weekend.
Moisture and temperatures will be on the increase by late week as
south to southeast low-level wind fetch develops. A trough across the
west coast and departing eastern low-level ridge will allow for
PWATs to climb into the 1.1-1.3" range. Lows each morning will
increase by 5-8F degrees with lows Friday and Saturday only falling
into the low to mid 60s. Highs into the weekend will be above normal
in the 80s. Low clouds and patchy fog could return Saturday with mist
that morning along with isolated afternoon showers trapped
underneath a strong capping inversion. Due to the inversion strength,
have opted to place shower wording in official forecast vs.
thunderstorm wording at this time.
By late weekend and into early next week, a series of lower latitude
shortwave troughs pivoting across Mexico and the southern four-
corners region will interact with the increased available moisture.
In addition, a frontal boundary may be near the vicinity of south-
central Texas early next week. All combined, with the upper level
lift support and surface frontogenesis forcing possibilities,
multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms appear possible per
this pattern set-up. Mid and long-range global models suggest that
2-5 inches could occur next week over the course of several days as
PWATs increase further to near 1.5". Stay tuned through the late week
and weekend on this developing pattern that could help provide some
relief to the current drought conditions
3 likes
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- S2K Supporter
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Re: Texas Spring 2018
12z Euro has a band of over 6 inches of rain near DFW next week
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#neversummer
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2018
The Euro seems locked in like at the end of February. The lakes in N & E Texas are mostly at full pool or above. The risk of significant flooding seems to be lurking.
1 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018
bubba hotep wrote:The Euro seems locked in like at the end of February. The lakes in N & E Texas are mostly at full pool or above. The risk of significant flooding seems to be lurking.
I agree if the Pacific does get involved which seems like the idea it could be a lot like the end of February was. Multiple rounds of heavy rain. Hard to ignore how consistent the idea has been for several runs now
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#neversummer
- bubba hotep
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- S2K Supporter
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Re: Texas Spring 2018
0z GFS freaky close to the Euro around 6 inches of rain in Dallas, more than that to the east... a foot near Texarkana
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Brent wrote:0z GFS freaky close to the Euro around 6 inches of rain in Dallas, more than that to the east... a foot near Texarkana
That needs to shift or expand south and west. That’s just about the same area of the state that got hammered in late February. The 12z earlier had me getting 6” and now maybe 1.5” here in SE TX.
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- Haris
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Re: Texas Spring 2018
I am seriously going to kill myself LOL if the 0z gfs solution verifies. 1" in atx and others N get 6"! WE NEED the rain. NTX is fine! Bring it to central tx
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Haris wrote:I am seriously going to kill myself LOL if the 0z gfs solution verifies. 1" in atx and others N get 6"! WE NEED the rain. NTX is fine! Bring it to central tx
Totally agree with you 100%. The rich get richer so it seems lol
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Re: Texas Spring 2018
Haris wrote:I am seriously going to kill myself LOL if the 0z gfs solution verifies. 1" in atx and others N get 6"! WE NEED the rain. NTX is fine! Bring it to central tx
Though I agree Dallas doesn't need THAT much rain again
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#neversummer
- somethingfunny
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Re: Texas Spring 2018
What day does the rainfall appear to be arriving? I'm trying to write a schedule for next week and rainfall can double my business... Would be nice to get prepared ahead of time.
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I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
- wxman57
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Re: Texas Spring 2018
somethingfunny wrote:What day does the rainfall appear to be arriving? I'm trying to write a schedule for next week and rainfall can double my business... Would be nice to get prepared ahead of time.
Next Tue, Wed, and Thu.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018
wxman57 wrote:somethingfunny wrote:What day does the rainfall appear to be arriving? I'm trying to write a schedule for next week and rainfall can double my business... Would be nice to get prepared ahead of time.
Next Tue, Wed, and Thu.
Rain chances everyday from Sun-Thurs. Heaviest period likely during days wxman57 listed above.
We have now strung together several days of -SOI, today being another. The Pacific help is real. WWB is only going to amp up the linkage. Flooding is a real probability in various areas of the state. Most prone is the north/northeast Texas given the rainfall already in Feb.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
The one difference from Feb is we will have to watch for localized severe weather especially early in the period given it is now late March. 2015 was the most active tornado year in NTX yet you wouldn't be able to name a major outbreak for the area.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2018
Ntxw wrote:The one difference from Feb is we will have to watch for localized severe weather especially early in the period given it is now late March. 2015 was the most active tornado year in NTX yet you wouldn't be able to name a major outbreak for the area.
From Dr. V this morning:
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Spring 2018
Brent wrote:0z GFS freaky close to the Euro around 6 inches of rain in Dallas, more than that to the east... a foot near Texarkana
We are already 9"+ for the year. We received 14.25" over a five day period a couple weeks ago.
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