ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Latest subsurface frame also shows no new cold subsurface pools forming in the WPAC, with the current warm pool continuing to be enforced.
Due to the strong westerlies, there will be probably be very little resistance as the warm anomalies build north of 50 meters, and the sub surface pool will likely expand and strengthen before the trades return (if they do).
Due to the strong westerlies, there will be probably be very little resistance as the warm anomalies build north of 50 meters, and the sub surface pool will likely expand and strengthen before the trades return (if they do).
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Re: ENSO Updates
If El Niño continues to develop through late summer and early fall '18, then the prospects might favour a back-to-back event in '19:
https://twitter.com/akshaysampathk1/status/995288339942002688
https://twitter.com/akshaysampathk1/status/995289240798879744
https://twitter.com/AndhraW/status/995291297962430470
https://twitter.com/akshaysampathk1/status/995292063687036928
https://twitter.com/akshaysampathk1/status/995292324191064064
https://twitter.com/AndhraW/status/995294028961902592
The trend is definitely aligning in favour of El Niño by the peak of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Strength is still in question:
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/995281313895772160
https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/995288322653212675
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/995297005844008960
https://twitter.com/akshaysampathk1/status/995288339942002688
https://twitter.com/akshaysampathk1/status/995289240798879744
https://twitter.com/AndhraW/status/995291297962430470
https://twitter.com/akshaysampathk1/status/995292063687036928
https://twitter.com/akshaysampathk1/status/995292324191064064
https://twitter.com/AndhraW/status/995294028961902592
The trend is definitely aligning in favour of El Niño by the peak of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Strength is still in question:
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/995281313895772160
https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/995288322653212675
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/995297005844008960
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: ENSO Updates
Shell Mound wrote:If El Niño continues to develop through late summer and early fall '18, then the prospects might favour a back-to-back event in '19:
SNIP - tolakram
Back-to-back El Niño events are quite rare. But when they do occur, the second year of El Niño is usually a strong to very strong event. I doubt we will see another very strong Niño so soon. I honestly think we may just stay warm neutral this year.
Last edited by tolakram on Mon May 14, 2018 8:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: remove long quote
Reason: remove long quote
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
We're almost through with the spring barrier.
UKMET:
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/995632311042486272
UKMET:
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/995632311042486272
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
12z Euro continues the trend of a reversal for its original forecast of a neutral SOI for May. By May 22, it has the SOI @ -2.5 for the month of May and high Darwin pressures/low Tahiti pressures returning. There's a realistic chance for May to close at -4/-5. Basically means all the blues and deep purples on the hovmollers (strong easterlies) over the dateline/CPAC coming on the GFS/Euro 850mb wind forecasts will likely disappear or not verify.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Will be -0.1C at the update later this morning
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
CPC weekly update of 5/14/18 has Niño 3.4 up to -0.1C. It was at -0.2C in last Mondays update.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update of 5/14/18: Niño 3.4 up to -0.1C
Per this weekly report, the subsurface is pretty steady at +0.75. In 2 of the 3 times that had a similar warm April to 2018 but were El Niño fail, May cooled substantially from April. So far, that's not happening.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO: CPC weekly update of 5/14/18: Niño 3.4 up to -0.1C
CDAS dataset (tropicaltidbits) has been seeing SST anom changes the past few weeks. Overall the equatorial Pacific has been warming slowly along with the eastern Pacific along South America. The Atlantic cold horse-shoe has also been slowly cooling.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
GFS and Euro take the MJO back into the circle. This is another signal that favors the prospects of an El Nino as the MJO once again does not end up in the "Nina phases.
If we go by recent history, it will probably be back in the WPAC or try phases 8/1 again.
If we go by recent history, it will probably be back in the WPAC or try phases 8/1 again.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:GFS and Euro take the MJO back into the circle. This is another signal that favors the prospects of an El Nino as the MJO once again does not end up in the "Nina phases.
https://i.imgur.com/5TrewvI.png
If we go by recent history, it will probably be back in the WPAC or try phases 8/1 again.
The Euro is still persistent in the MJO going into Phase 2 which should get trade winds back up again in the Pacific first.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:12z Euro continues the trend of a reversal for its original forecast of a neutral SOI for May. By May 22, it has the SOI @ -2.5 for the month of May and high Darwin pressures/low Tahiti pressures returning. There's a realistic chance for May to close at -4/-5. Basically means all the blues and deep purples on the hovmollers (strong easterlies) over the dateline/CPAC coming on the GFS/Euro 850mb wind forecasts will likely disappear or not verify.
Yeah, King, what had earlier per the Euro looked to be near 0 for through 5/18 for the SOI is now looking to be near -3. I agree that a -4 to -5 for May as a whole is now quite possible. Darwin pressures have consistently been coming in higher and Tahiti slightly lower than what those earlier Euro runs had been suggesting.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:GFS and Euro take the MJO back into the circle. This is another signal that favors the prospects of an El Nino as the MJO once again does not end up in the "Nina phases.
https://i.imgur.com/5TrewvI.png
If we go by recent history, it will probably be back in the WPAC or try phases 8/1 again.
The Euro is still persistent in the MJO going into Phase 2 which should get trade winds back up again in the Pacific first.
Yeah, but it barely squeezes into phase 2 compared to previous runs. Phases 3/4/5 could easily nullify an emerging El Nino. The potency and effect of this upcoming trade burst is questionable since it looks to be centered over the dateline and anomalous westerly winds continue to dominant the EPAC. The 12z Euro also showed the pressures over Darwin increasing again after May 21, which would mean a return of the trade winds will be short.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:GFS and Euro take the MJO back into the circle. This is another signal that favors the prospects of an El Nino as the MJO once again does not end up in the "Nina phases.
https://i.imgur.com/5TrewvI.png
If we go by recent history, it will probably be back in the WPAC or try phases 8/1 again.
The Euro is still persistent in the MJO going into Phase 2 which should get trade winds back up again in the Pacific first.
Yeah, but it barely squeezes into phase 2 compared to previous runs. Phases 3/4/5 could easily nullify an emerging El Nino. The potency and effect of this upcoming trade burst is questionable since it looks to be centered over the dateline and anomalous westerly winds continue to dominant the EPAC. The 12z Euro also showed the pressures over Darwin increasing again after May 21, which would mean a return of the trade winds will be short.
If anything the Euro is now showing longer time over phase 2 and the GFS is now joining the Euro.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Phase 2 doesn't always guarantee a positive SOI though. Sinking is still greater than normal over Australia compared to Tahiti in this phase.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
@webberweather
The easterly trade wind burst is being generated by high frequency variability (I.e. a CCKW) which is usually temporary (2-3 week return period) if lasts beyond the lifetime of the cckw when intraseasonal forcing flips back then it would mean something for ENSO.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/997077278415876097
The easterly trade wind burst is being generated by high frequency variability (I.e. a CCKW) which is usually temporary (2-3 week return period) if lasts beyond the lifetime of the cckw when intraseasonal forcing flips back then it would mean something for ENSO.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/997077278415876097
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Re: ENSO Updates
Eyeballing the buoys the values are now warm neutral in the weeklies. The below normal anomalies are mostly confined below the equator and has been warming since the beginning of May.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Today's SOI value came in positive and per the 12z Euro, there will be a string of positive values until Sunday before the pressure pattern shifts back negative.
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