Western Caribbean Area of Interest: (Is INVEST 90L)
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- cycloneye
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Western Caribbean Area of Interest: (Is INVEST 90L)
Let's open a thread for the area that the increasing consensus among the models show developing.There is convection in the SW Caribbean at this time so let's post away.
Edit: Changed title to Western Caribbean as the focus will be there as the models are showing.
Edit: Changed title to Western Caribbean as the focus will be there as the models are showing.
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- NotSparta
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Re: SW Caribbean Area of Interest
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
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Re: SW Caribbean Area of Interest
This could potentially move into the EPAC and develop I bet.
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Kay '22 Hilary '23
- NotSparta
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Re: SW Caribbean Area of Interest
boca wrote:https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=taw&band=13&length=24
It look hostile down there at the moment.
High shear right now, expected to reduce in the next few days however
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- CyclonicFury
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Re: SW Caribbean Area of Interest
I think we will likely see a broad low pressure area form over the NW Caribbean early next week, but I don't think we will see development until it is moving northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Thinking we will see a sheared TS at most IMO, mainly based on history.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: SW Caribbean Area of Interest
Saved vis loop, noticeable vorticity NE of Costa Rica/Panama border.
12z GFS shows this area of moisture crawling WNW-NW towards the NW Caribbean over the next 7 days or so.
12z GFS shows this area of moisture crawling WNW-NW towards the NW Caribbean over the next 7 days or so.
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Re: SW Caribbean Area of Interest
I don't see anything impressive on the GFS. Looks like a typical early season disorganized tropical storm. Nothing to get excited about.
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Re: SW Caribbean Area of Interest
12z Euro is so far looking like it will continue favoring development over the NW Caribbean vs EPAC.
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Re: SW Caribbean Area of Interest
only thing I am looking at is the upper level pattern and how strong the ridge is and etc...
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- SFLcane
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Re: SW Caribbean Area of Interest
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:I don't see anything impressive on the GFS. Looks like a typical early season disorganized tropical storm. Nothing to get excited about.
Um here in SFL this could bring significant flooding problems...Also tornado threat could be there. Lets wait to see if something actually forms
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Re: SW Caribbean Area of Interest
I'm pretty entertained at the supreme instability in solutions from the FV3 vs the Euro and GFS
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- gatorcane
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Re: SW Caribbean Area of Interest
12Z Euro shifts to the right a bit and weaker out through 192 hours.
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- gatorcane
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Re: SW Caribbean Area of Interest
Both the GFS and ECMWF have this into South Florida at 216 hours with pretty remarkable agreement. The GFS is more SW Florida, stronger and slightly faster while the ECMWF is a bit more SE and weaker up through the southern tip of Florida. Pretty darn good agreement for this far out.
240 hour Euro, so it moves NNE through Southern Florida:
240 hour Euro, so it moves NNE through Southern Florida:
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu May 17, 2018 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- SFLcane
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Re: SW Caribbean Area of Interest
In a sense gatorcane a big flood threat across SFL with a sloppy disorganized storm possibly not even purely tropical. Its may i don't think this a wind problem.
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Re: SW Caribbean Area of Interest
Alyono wrote:EC does not exactly look all that tropical
I am actually skeptical about development. The EPS shows a significant anticyclonic wave-breaking event over the eastern U.S. in a week and substantial influence from the subtropical jet, which would tend to strongly shear out vorticity. That kind of pattern might be too unfavourable even for a subtropical/hybrid mess to develop, as there will be dry, continental air wrapping into the circulation, owing to the likelihood of a backdoor surface cold front stalling over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. On the run, you can see very weak to nonexistent northerlies on the west side of the ostensible system, suggesting that a closed low might not even be present. Instead of development, I am leaning toward a strung-out series of vorticity lobes ahead of a cold front, possibly inducing locally heavy rainfall over Cuba and the Bahamas, but perhaps passing far enough to the east that the heaviest rainfall stays to the east of mainland South Florida and/or most of the Keys.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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Re: SW Caribbean Area of Interest
stormlover2013 wrote:only thing I am looking at is the upper level pattern and how strong the ridge is and etc...
I'm not suggesting anything, but Texas sure feels like it's under the Death Ridge right now. I'm guessing because of Harvey, most would welcome long term high pressure floating this summer. I'll trade heat for 50+ inches of rain.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.