ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the LLC might be getting a slight tug to the east (as forecasted by a couple of models)? Shear really ripping into this as the moment:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

There are multiple vorts. there is one just offshore moving north.. the one you mentioned is moving S.. there is another north of there moving west. extrapolate to the center of the gyre and its just inland. for now. though the vort right near the coast isnow building convection with it. so it may take over. who knows .. though with the shear more likely is that it will get spit out as well later.

The 850mb vorticity appears to be right where you are talking about and it is not as elongated as it was this morning.

[Dean4Storms]

Crap..... ECM with 80-90mph wind gusts from Gulf Shores to P’Cola.

[tolakram]

The NHC has a complete overview of last year, how models performed on track and intensity, and how they performed.

2017 verification report: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2017.pdf

So as of the 12Z runs the Euro and GFS have almost exactly the same landfall location with the Euro being a little slower (96 offshore, 120 inland). The euro might be a tad east of the GFS now.

[Ian2401]

Is anyone else having trouble with satellite loops on NHC site?

Not working for me either

[robbielyn]

Crazy,you think that could happen ?

It's very possible. If the ridge rebuilds, it can't go north. It would either be forced west (and not very fast!) or stall out near the coast or offshore. The ECMWF weakens the ridge just enough to keep it moving inland slowly, but other models largely stall it out in southern LA/MS. A stronger ridge would keep it offshore entirely.

Not too many storms in the Gulf fail to make landfall. But all it would take is a quick burst of shear, since it would be upwelling like crazy if it stalls out. It needs to keep moving to intensify.

That would be the best case scenario. I never witnessed that before.

[SouthFloridawx]

Wait till later and tomorrow. They will change.

[SouthFloridawx]

This is what I use. I can refresh it as well. It allow up to 50 frames.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Is anyone else having trouble with satellite loops on NHC site?

Not working for me either

[stormlover2013]

well only change i see is more west, the ridge looks mighty strong

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET track is the eastern outlier:

[BobHarlem]

The decommissioning of the old goes-13 satellite sites has wrecked havoc on a lot of the old standby floaters, etc, NHC and tropical tidbits included.

[MetroMike]

Looks like the LLC might be getting a slight tug to the east (as forecasted by a couple of models)? Shear really ripping into this as the moment:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

There are multiple vorts. there is one just offshore moving north.. the one you mentioned is moving S.. there is another north of there moving west. extrapolate to the center of the gyre and its just inland. for now. though the vort right near the coast isnow building convection with it. so it may take over. who knows .. though with the shear more likely is that it will get spit out as well later.

Yes, we don't even have a main center now. Everyone should know that models do not do verify well until there Is a defined CoC.

[LarryWx]

I've seen enough. In agreement with the NHC and also based on satellite/model trends, I'm now expecting a TS to form in the GOM along with a TS threat to the US GOM coast early next week from the FL Panhandle westward. I now think there's even a 5% chance for a H hit. If a TS+ landfalls in AL or westward by 5/29, it would become the earliest TS to hit in that part of the US on record back to 1851!

[CrazyC83]

I've seen enough. In agreement with the NHC and also based on satellite/model trends, I'm now expecting a TS to form in the GOM along with a TS threat to the US GOM coast early next week from the FL Panhandle westward. I now think there's even a 5% chance for a H hit. If a TS+ landfalls in AL or westward by 5/29, it would become the earliest TS to hit in that part of the US on record back to 1851!

I think reanalysis found an earlier storm to hit in 1957 (more than a month before Audrey in the same area)?

[SoupBone]

Crazy,you think that could happen ?

It's very possible. If the ridge rebuilds, it can't go north. It would either be forced west (and not very fast!) or stall out near the coast or offshore. The ECMWF weakens the ridge just enough to keep it moving inland slowly, but other models largely stall it out in southern LA/MS. A stronger ridge would keep it offshore entirely.

Not too many storms in the Gulf fail to make landfall. But all it would take is a quick burst of shear, since it would be upwelling like crazy if it stalls out. It needs to keep moving to intensify.

I'm not sure this belongs here, and mods, please free to move it, but I'd like to see if you're willing to assign percentages to this possibility? This would be a very interesting discussion, and would be pretty interesting if it unfolded.

[LarryWx]

I've seen enough. In agreement with the NHC and also based on satellite/model trends, I'm now expecting a TS to form in the GOM along with a TS threat to the US GOM coast early next week from the FL Panhandle westward. I now think there's even a 5% chance for a H hit. If a TS+ landfalls in AL or westward by 5/29, it would become the earliest TS to hit in that part of the US on record back to 1851!

I think reanalysis found an earlier storm to hit in 1957 (more than a month before Audrey in the same area)?

I'm not aware of this but that's interesting if true. I did find an earlier one than Audrey here though with a June 8th genesis:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Is this by any chance that one?

[HeeBGBz]

looks like the models are zoning in on northern Gulf coast for landfall but what we have to watch is as the system makes the NE to NNE to N the NW turn in the Eastern Gulf (a reverse recurve so to speak), just how far east it gets. A center reformation or two to the east could mean a big difference as far as the impacts to the FL peninsula are concerned. It is not like the system is going to just head straight north into the Central GOM from the Yucatan.

Pretty amazing agreement in the models now after being so far apart as recently as yesterday.

All of them seem to be directly over my house. Big rain and Biloxi are not a good combination.

[Sciencerocks]

The decommissioning of the old goes-13 satellite sites has wrecked havoc on a lot of the old standby floaters, etc, NHC and tropical tidbits included.

I don't think the so called upgraded was worth it because of this.

I miss the floaters bad.

[stormreader]

Model guidance in motion from good local La. met Rob Petillo.
https://www.facebook.com/TheRobPerillo/ ... 280574940/

[SFLcane]

Let me introduce you to the best floater page..

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/

[Frank2]

In the 240 nm range of the Key West radar, the western-most echos (closest to the disturbance) have a northward movement of ~ 10 mph...

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... X&loop=yes