ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

18z ICON has trended east. Same pattern as the 12z run - but the storm has a closer approach to Florida and meanders south of Pensacola instead of the Mississippi River Delta.

yes the turn to the west was more drawn out but check out the ridging at 84 to 90 hours ! just like NAM much strong now. it should be going west shortly.

[Ivanhater]

Icon heading north toward Pensacola

[Aric Dunn]

it has been drifing north from 84 to 105 hours while the ridging is getting stronger and more expansive.. not sure why it is meandering under that ridging.


18z


12Z

[BobHarlem]

A few of the twitter folks are starting to talk about the potential for a slow/stall before landfall, which is a concern of mine also.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah very weird with those heights to the north.. should have been steadily moving west. instead it drifted north for 2 days.. lol

[Ivanhater]

It's looking more likely of a stall of cyclonic loop as it approaches the northern Gulf coast instead of being shoved west looking at the models today.

[LarryWx]

lol of course.. so far. ICON way east of 12z.. does a much wide turn for some reason. maybe shear..
84 hours it is stalled south of Mississippi, though ridging is building strong so should not go north.. same timing as NAM just a larger turn.

It is, oddly enough, the furthest east of any ICON run in days! I don't know if even any ICON run has been east of this one.

[txwatcher91]

lol of course.. so far. ICON way east of 12z.. does a much wide turn for some reason. maybe shear..
84 hours it is stalled south of Mississippi, though ridging is building strong so should not go north.. same timing as NAM just a larger turn.

It is, oddly enough, the furthest east of any ICON run in days! I don't know if even any ICON run has been east of this one.

Aric, it seems to me the reason the ICON went east this run is the Bermuda ridge is much weaker and a bit east. That shifts the whole setup east and allows the storm to feel that weakness a bit more thus the easterly track vs prior runs. That’s just my best guess based on the 5H maps posted.

[Steve]

I think the shortwave in eastern Canada is probably the slight tug north but I didn’t run expanded map on it. But it would mostly just tug at it if the ridging to the north was too strong for anything but a dent.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS coming in weaker again. Only 4-5 days out from potential landfall and impact and we still have models swinging left and right and up and down in intensity.

[USTropics]

I would disregard the 18z GFS run, just look at the 850mb vort between hours 36-48 for a reason why.

[Aric Dunn]

I would disregard the 18z GFS run, just look at the 850mb vort between hours 36-48 for a reason why.

Yeah I am just looking the 500mb maps now.

[TheStormExpert]

Yes we can give credit to the GFS for sniffing this tropical potential out weeks in advance but when it’s come down to performance in the short-medium range it has not done good at all. That’s where the Euro has been better to look at despite it likely being too far west for potential landfall along the northern Gulf Coast this Memorial Day weekend.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS at 18z is forming vorts out of thin air. There is the reason it is doing what it is doing. Smh. Oh my beautiful America why hath thou forsaken me?

[Stormcenter]

Okay I may be an outlier here but I'm in the mind set of "No storm, no worries". All of these model runs mean nothing
until we actually have something organize. Right now 90L still looks like a mess. IMO

[SFLcane]

Those discounting the gfs and it’s vorts I’d wait to make that call until 90L actually developes. Right now it’s been sheared to death. Still some chance another circulation developes a bit to the east.

[ronjon]

Those discounting the gfs and it’s vorts I’d wait to make that call until 90L actually developes. Right now it’s been sheared to death. Still some chance another circulation developes a bit to the east.

Actually a vort to the NE of current location develops in 48 hrs on 12z Euro so...then intensifies it to 994 mb at 27N-85W at 72 hrs before it heads NW toward Mobile. Euro shifted significantly eastward through 72 hrs on latest run. Be interesting if it trends toward UKMET now.

[PSUHiker31]

Well at least the 12Z GFS was reasonable. That 18Z run is garbage.

[NDG]

I still see a broad circulation over the eastern Yucatan but the structure overall of the system is improving UL divergence to the north of it is improving.

[MississippiWx]

Still think an eastern solution is on the table. Wouldn’t discount GfS or UKMET yet.