ARABIAN SEA: MEKUNU - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/999767873621868544

[Yellow Evan]

Looks steady state at best.

[euro6208]

Good thing it is forecast to weaken before landfall but near a major city Salalah...

I would not trust the jtwc forecast at all

I see nothing to weaken this before landfall. That forecast is not very good, in my professional opinion

Expect at least 100 kts at landfall

Now forecast to hit as a Cat 2 90 knots. I wouldn't be surprised.

[NotoSans]

Current structure as seen in latest microwave imagery will probably prohibit significant intensification before landfall. A Cat.2 landfall seems the most likely.

[euro6208]

Could be first ever Cat 2 to make landfall in Oman.

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/999312721370845184

[Alyono]

Could be first ever Cat 2 to make landfall in Oman.

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/999312721370845184

but Phet in 2010 was at least a cat 3

[euro6208]

Could be first ever Cat 2 to make landfall in Oman.

but Phet in 2010 was at least a cat 3

For the southwest part of the country. Phet hit Oman's northeast.

[doomhaMwx]

Cyclone Mekunu nearing the coast of the Arabian Peninsula.

[euro6208]

Just terrible. Track shifted to the right and has +300,000 Salalah right in it's fury.

[euro6208]

[WAcyclone]

Looks like a station in Dhalkut (very close to the Oman/Jemen border) just recorded winds of 82 kt. That would be almost category 3 strength but I am not completely sure if these are sustained values or gusts, especially given that the eyewall is still far offshore. The measured pressure was 989 hPa:

[euro6208]

It sure looks like a major now.

[StruThiO]

Just terrible. Track shifted to the right and has +300,000 Salalah right in it's fury.

This is what I'm worried about! I don't see how there's any way people are not going to die from this..

[euro6208]

Upgrade to a Cat 3?

TPIO10 PGTW 251233

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU)

B. 25/1200Z

C. 16.41N

D. 54.13E

E. THREE/MET8

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/0825Z 16.20N 54.42E AMS2
25/1126Z 16.25N 54.47E SSMI


LOWE

[doomhaMwx]

Impressive image of Cyclone Mekunu over the SW Arabian Sea, as captured by the European Space Agency's (ESA) PROBA-V satellite on May 24th.
http://proba-v.vgt.vito.be/en/content/p ... cial-image

[euro6208]

Upgraded to a major Cat 3!

02A MEKUNU 180525 1200 16.4N 54.3E IO 100 952

[shah83]

I feel very weird respecting this storm, but this was one heck of a tough cookie taking all of that dry air beating and still managing a strengthening landfall. Looks like an Odile sort of landfall...

[NotoSans]

Up to 95 knots from the IMD as well.

[doomhaMwx]

Wew!




At 12Z today (4pm Oman time), Salalah airport recorded a Sea-Level Pressure near 991mb, and a wind speed of 48kph.

[Yellow Evan]

This likely around 110 knots right now. Clear out its eye and we have a Category 4.