ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Steve H.]

Kinda surprised that the nhc classified this Alberto as ill defined as it is, but heck, they name winter storms now Nevertheless, it should develop during the weekend and could get close to hurricane status if he encounters favorable conditions for a time. Hoping the rain gets pulled west away from east central Florida!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

The Weather Channel names winter storms, not a government agency. Just to be clear. I think the NHC knows what they are doing here.

Agreed. I meant the big "they," not the nhc. Yes, that wonderful channel (TWC) that loves to create weather chaos and sell the elderly meds that they don't need. Alright, I will shut up...

[cajungal]

That wouldn't be good for us in the Thibodaux/Houma area

[DestinHurricane]

Could this make the jump from subtropical to tropical

[robbielyn]

I wonder if the UKMET, might be the one to go with here.

why do you say that?

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS back to competing vorts through hour 30:

[RL3AO]

Could this make the jump from subtropical to tropical

It likely will sometime this weekend.

[SouthFloridawx]

Maybe that makes sense with the current Mid Level Vort trying to work down to the surface to the NE of the system? There isn't much convection to the south of that.

18Z GFS back to competing vorts through hour 30:

[SFLcane]

Not even sure how this even gets close to being tropical has anyone even looked at the water vapor loop? Dry air is fully entriened into the circulation and it’s being sheared to death with as expected most of the squalls if you can call it that shunted to the east over Cuba and Florida soon. The main threat for the entire southeast as I see it is heavy rainfall. We shall see if it ever gets the chance to strengthen over the gulf but I have doubts.

[gatorcane]

Yeah looks very sheared not to mention a naked LLC swirling away heading east. To be honest looks a lot more like the UKMET and FV3 GFS depictions so far (Eastern models). Plenty of time to organize in the Gulf though.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like Euro and Gfs in very good agreement on Mobile/Pensacola area

[stormreader]

FWIW the 18z NAM shifts a little west and goes directly over New Orleans then up towards Baton Rouge.

Guess there may in fact still be a decent level of uncertainty. Euro track still most consistent over all, and NHC very close to it. Makes you wonder though, with GFS
following possible secondary vortices. You would hope for more agreement within the 72 hr timeframe. And now this from the Nam. Still got to believe Euro and NHC is closest to final solution.

[flamingosun]

Kinda surprised that the nhc classified this Alberto as ill defined as it is, but heck, they name winter storms now Nevertheless, it should develop during the weekend and could get close to hurricane status if he encounters favorable conditions for a time. Hoping the rain gets pulled west away from east central Florida!

Hmmm . . . Think it's gonna rain, Steve. Certainly not like elsewhere, but looks like we'll get at least some on the Space Coast THIS, from the NWS in Melbourne:

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of east central Florida, including
the following areas, Coastal Volusia County, Indian River,
Inland Volusia County, Martin, Northern Brevard County,
Northern Lake County, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole,
Southern Brevard County, Southern Lake County, and St. Lucie.

* From Saturday afternoon through Monday evening

* A prolonged period of heavy rainfall potential is expected
across the area as Alberto moves northward through the Gulf of
Mexico and pulls deep tropical moisture over east central
Florida. Widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are
possible. Storm total rainfall amounts may reach up to 6 to 8
inches in localized by Monday. This will cause a concern for
flooding across east central Florida, especially in areas that
received heavy rainfall earlier this month.

* Heavy rainfall will have the potential to cause flooding on
roadways and in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Do not drive
across flooded roadways.

[PSUHiker31]

Looks like Euro and Gfs in very good agreement on Mobile/Pensacola area

The GFS is too inconsistent with the swings east and west since it can't handle the evolution of Alberto.

Liking the Euro here.

[gatorcane]

Really looks like we are seeing some kind of vorticity becoming the dominant one near the Western tip of Cuba. The whole thing definitely has a subtropical look, almost frontal looking as cloud tops have really warmed. Reminds you we are in May despite what the models think...

[Evil Jeremy]

It looks to my entirely uncertified eye that the MLC is making it's way down to the surface

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Really looks like we are seeing some kind of vorticity becoming the dominant one near the Western tip of Cuba.

That's what I'm seeing.

[DestinHurricane]

Storm Surge watch now in effect

[blp]

It looks to my entirely uncertified eye that the MLC is making it's way down to the surface

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Really looks like we are seeing some kind of vorticity becoming the dominant one near the Western tip of Cuba.

That's what I'm seeing.

Let's see if recon sees something.

[sphelps8681]

Do ya'll think anymore shift west is possible with this system?

[floridasun78]

I'll admit, I didn't think the radar would be lighting up so much just yet with Alberto as the deluge on peninsula Florida has commenced...

i drove in that was pain in neck was coming down good started after noon

[gatorcane]

18Z HWRF shifts significantly east with landfall over Western tip of Cuba: