ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[AtlanticWind]

Hwrf gets Alberto pretty close to SW florida coast

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=33

[MississippiWx]

Still looks like the original vort we’ve been watching all day is still hanging on. In fact, it has a few new thunderstorms firing near/over it and it is beginning to move to the north.

[stormhunter7]

Very shocked at 1am cdt advisory on movement......

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 85.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

"Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Alberto's center
is located a little farther south than previously estimated."

I don't understand? I clearly see the low at surface has moved north the last few hours. Convection is on NE of COC, within 50 miles of center. Pretty sure Alberto is moving north. On GOES 16 ABI - Band 7 Shortwave IR the low at the surface is moving north.

[chaser1]

Gonna have to disagree with NHC this evening. I do believe Alberto has started the north movement. I believe it started around 2330z. Direction would be NNE, IMO. I would say somewhere around 5mph. Just looking at night time imagery off of goes-16. On this track, i believe alberto would shoot the gap... right up the channel into GOM.

I fully agree. "Elvis (and this MLC) has left the building". Hey.... m a y b e this will evolve, even reach min. hurricane intensity at some point?! I'll say this much though, if anyone thinks this "storm" looks bad now just wait till the morning visible satellite pics begin to roll on in. I'm betting that the only thing we see at the surface anywhere near the MLC with any kind of counterclockwise rotation.... might just be some errant sailboat with a broken rudder (with the registered name "Shear Issues" ). I do believe that a new LLC will eventually form. I also anticipate further eastward adjustments to the forecast track.

[stormhunter7]

Might be hard to tell, the image got small.

[Twisted-core]

00z ukmet is consistent.
https://imgur.com/Ia6LbuX



https://imgur.com/pdRUaFf

[chaser1]

kinda looks little like someone's child on isle 9 at the grocery store, frantically looking for their mother.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro as 24 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=24

[stormhunter7]

whats concerning is the strong surface winds to the east, there almost a south to north strong gradient going towards Cuba. Don't think Alberto will be going to the east until after Cuba. May have a new center reform by then? If the current one cant hold.

[Evil Jeremy]

Euro as 24 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=24

Little further east?

That is the furthest east the 00z run has brought Alberto to, at least in the past three 00z cycles. However, it gets shunted off to the NW all the same and is back in line with prior runs, generally, at 48 hours.

[stormhunter7]

Euro looks southwest at 48hrs compared to 12z?

[AtlanticWind]

Euro looks west at 48hrs compared to 12z?

It does, starts to go further east at 24 hours but then moves NW

[stormhunter7]

Euro looks west at 48hrs compared to 12z?

It does, starts to go further east at 24 hours but then moves NW

After 48hrs, takes a sharp turn and heads North to Gulf Shores, Al. 988-990mb?

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like same landfall point at 72 hours as 12z run

[stormhunter7]

Euro 00z moved to east more as it approached the coast compared to 12z

[Jag95]

Looks like shear is relaxing a bit around the northeastern tip of the Yucatan. I thought earlier today the llc would probably reform to the north, but I'm beginning to now think not. Nice satellite loop.

[USTropics]

Here is a better view of the difference between the ECMWF 12z and 00z run using the high-def ECMWF products. Valid for 5/26 @ 7PM:

[Hurricane Mike]

Very shocked at 1am cdt advisory on movement......

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 85.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

"Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Alberto's center
is located a little farther south than previously estimated."

I don't understand? I clearly see the low at surface has moved north the last few hours. Convection is on NE of COC, within 50 miles of center. Pretty sure Alberto is moving north. On GOES 16 ABI - Band 7 Shortwave IR the low at the surface is moving north.

You might be looking at the mid-level center near Western Cuba. The actual low-level center is to the south of it in the Caribbean Sea, almost void of thunderstorms.

[Aric Dunn]

This is a good old-fashioned fun time.. I like it.. tomorrow will be a drastically different situation..

[stormhunter7]

Does look like a Florida landfall in 00z. Pensacola Beach area? In 00Z Euro? late tueday night, before heading NW into Mississippi by wed evening.