ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

[MississippiWx]

I'm interested to see if the swirl north of the western tip of Cuba is working it's way to the surface.

This is the area the NAM is developing. The one south of Cuba looks like it’s getting absorbed into the convergent bands to the east.

[Steve H.]

Okay thanks for the clarification. Interesting ly there are still two vortices, one just south of the western tip of Cuba, and one the northwest. Looks like they are wanting to consolidate soon though.

[ronjon]

Kudos to Gatorcane, caneman, northjax, and others for consistently pointing out the reformation of the center NE near the western tip of Cuba and the eastward shift in track guidance. NHC now concurs and there may be continued slight eastward shifts for the next 48 hrs of Alberto movement. There are some sharp posters on this board.

[psyclone]

I'm not sure of the likelihood of sustained tropical storm winds for the Tampa Bay area, but there are often destructive down bursts in squall lines, Auntie Em Auntie Em.

It seems like a stretch at this point but it may be a nod to stubborn persistence of the system persistently being right of expectations thus far (we've seen this act before)...Plus a nod to coastal geography and a track that takes it a touch east of north up until the 27ish latitude or so.

[Ivanhater]

12z nam bringing this into AL/MS border...overall models are tightly clustered around the Mobile and Pensacola bay areas

[dixiebreeze]

We would do well to remember Charley..... a hard right into Punta Gorda and surrounding area all the way to Orlando. Wasn't supposed to do that -- lol

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261530
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 38 20180526
152000 2046N 08404W 9248 00758 0087 +210 +192 234025 026 014 002 00
152030 2047N 08405W 9250 00757 0086 +210 +192 233026 026 014 002 03
152100 2048N 08406W 9246 00758 0084 +210 +191 234026 027 015 001 00
152130 2049N 08407W 9251 00754 0084 +210 +192 233026 027 013 001 03
152200 2050N 08409W 9249 00755 0082 +214 +192 235026 026 015 001 03
152230 2051N 08410W 9249 00755 0081 +215 +191 233025 025 011 002 00
152300 2052N 08411W 9250 00754 0080 +215 +190 231024 025 013 001 00
152330 2053N 08412W 9250 00752 0080 +213 +191 238024 024 013 001 03
152400 2054N 08413W 9246 00755 0079 +215 +190 239023 024 013 002 00
152430 2056N 08414W 9252 00749 0076 +215 +189 241023 023 011 001 03
152500 2057N 08415W 9252 00746 0075 +215 +190 239024 024 010 001 03
152530 2058N 08416W 9248 00751 0075 +217 +190 237024 024 012 002 00
152600 2059N 08417W 9250 00749 0075 +217 +187 238024 024 014 000 00
152630 2101N 08418W 9249 00750 0075 +220 +185 238024 024 016 000 00
152700 2102N 08419W 9249 00749 0075 +217 +185 238024 024 015 001 00
152730 2103N 08420W 9249 00749 0074 +215 +185 240023 024 014 001 00
152800 2104N 08421W 9250 00746 0073 +216 +187 241023 023 013 002 00
152830 2106N 08422W 9248 00748 0071 +220 +186 241023 024 014 001 00
152900 2107N 08423W 9250 00745 0069 +220 +183 243024 024 011 002 03
152930 2108N 08424W 9249 00745 0069 +220 +184 244023 024 014 000 00

[dixiebreeze]

Gulf storms have a long history of migrating east/northeast, sometimes at the last minute.

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

Careful interpolating between the 8am Mon and 8am Tue points on the NHC track. It could be tracking through Mobile Bay vs. connecting the points with a straight line which points at Pensacola (or the FL/AL border). It will be making a curve prior to landfall - NW then north.

Probably nitpicking at this point, but from discussion
"The track guidance has shifted slightly eastward this cycle and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new NHC track is near a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models, but it is not as far east as the UKMET or the TVCA multi-model consensus. The eastward adjustment in the track forecast has required the issuance of a tropical storm watch for a portion of the west coast of Florida and an eastward nudge of the watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle."

They are referring to the track across the eastern Gulf - closer to Florida, not final landfall. It tracks NNE then NW for a while, but it will be making a curve at landfall on the northern Gulf Coast.

[xironman]

I'm interested to see if the swirl north of the western tip of Cuba is working it's way to the surface.

This is the area the NAM is developing. The one south of Cuba looks like it’s getting absorbed into the convergent bands to the east.

Kinda sad when the NAM is leading the pack

[NotSparta]

12z GFS stronger

[cycloneye]

12z GFS stronger

Cat 1.

[Bocadude85]

12z GFS stronger

Stronger and with a landfall east of Pensacola.

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
[#tweetForNerds] #Alberto is forming a new low-level center NW of the tip of Cuba in response to upper-level forcing which is now peaking in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This is likely the "jump" that was expected today. Gradual organization will likely now ensue as shear weakens.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1000401038950780929

[caneman]

Yes that does include Tampa more or less like Punta Gorda up to the Suwannee. But then a gap north of that to Panama City Beach. That area is currently the closest approach to the peninsula for a Alberto.

Anclote river is extreme northern Pinellas county (tarpon springs)...so the watch on the west coast covers the Pinellas, Manatee, Sarasota and Charlotte county coastlines... The Suwannee is much farther north...marking the border between Levy and Dixie Counties.

Yep. I live around Indian Rocks Beach. More worried about the rain. We haven't seen much sun since before the 13th.

[MississippiWx]

Eastward trend continues. At this rate, even Mobile may miss out on the worst impacts. A trend to the UKMET continues. That model has performed great with this system.

[Ivanhater]

12z Gfs is alarming for Pensacola

[caneman]

And Panama City. How close will it come to Tampa? We could possibly have T.S. impacts