ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1521 Postby robbielyn » Sat May 26, 2018 11:30 am

would someone please post a loop of the visible that has enough frames in it to see where the new llc is and perhaps circle it as well? thank you in advance.on nhc i can’t control the amount of frames or the speed. it’s driving me crazy lol :D
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1522 Postby Fishing » Sat May 26, 2018 11:31 am

wxman57 wrote:Anyone else having trouble connecting to weatherbell this morning? Looks like their server may be down.

Weatherbell.com site is down and we are working on the fix, Bad time true, but then again insight on Alberto started 3 weeks ago on the site showing you the MJO rotation and our ideas have not changed. Will update as soon as we are back, Thanks for patience
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1523 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 26, 2018 11:32 am

Breaking: Down to 998 mbs.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Recon

#1524 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 26, 2018 11:32 am

Down to 998 mbs.

000
URNT15 KNHC 261630
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 44 20180526
162000 2228N 08521W 9249 00717 0042 +204 +184 273009 011 009 003 03
162030 2229N 08521W 9250 00715 0040 +206 +180 286012 014 008 002 00
162100 2231N 08521W 9248 00716 0037 +212 +174 295014 015 010 001 00
162130 2232N 08521W 9250 00712 0034 +215 +171 290016 018 012 001 03
162200 2234N 08520W 9250 00712 0033 +210 +186 286018 019 013 001 00
162230 2235N 08520W 9248 00711 0030 +212 +190 309011 017 007 002 00
162300 2237N 08519W 9250 00705 0026 +217 +188 304011 011 011 001 00
162330 2238N 08518W 9247 00707 0027 +207 +195 317007 009 008 005 00
162400 2240N 08518W 9246 00706 0024 +208 +193 319007 009 008 002 00
162430 2241N 08517W 9250 00700 0023 +206 +192 312006 006 009 002 03
162500 2243N 08516W 9252 00696 0018 +211 +189 300004 006 008 001 00
162530 2244N 08516W 9248 00696 0015 +213 +188 328003 004 010 001 00
162600 2245N 08515W 9253 00688 0010 +216 +186 310004 005 012 001 00
162630 2247N 08514W 9243 00698 0006 +220 +183 255008 009 009 001 03
162700 2248N 08514W 9255 00682 0003 +217 +186 228008 010 014 001 00
162730 2250N 08513W 9250 00684 9999 +221 +186 251003 010 018 001 03
162800 2251N 08513W 9233 00689 9987 +220 +186 041014 017 /// /// 03
162830 2253N 08514W 8932 00970 9980 +207 +170 044018 022 /// /// 03
162900 2254N 08515W 8501 01398 9978 +184 +144 042024 027 /// /// 03
162930 2255N 08516W 8113 01799 9981 +160 +115 045023 026 /// /// 03
$$
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Recon Discussion

#1525 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 26, 2018 11:33 am

WOW,998 mbs as plane crosses the center.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1526 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat May 26, 2018 11:34 am

cycloneye wrote:Breaking: Down to 998 mbs.


Really neat center reformation event. Reminds me a lot of Gabrielle (2001). Nguyen and Molinari (2015) have an excellent paper on that case. I'm curious to see if the convection associated with this new center can sustain in the midst of the present vertical wind shear.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Recon

#1527 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 26, 2018 11:34 am

Image
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1528 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 26, 2018 11:36 am

cycloneye wrote:Breaking: Down to 998 mbs.


Here is your new Center.I think is now fully Tropical.

Image
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1529 Postby wxman57 » Sat May 26, 2018 11:38 am

robbielyn wrote:would someone please post a loop of the visible that has enough frames in it to see where the new llc is and perhaps circle it as well? thank you in advance.on nhc i can’t control the amount of frames or the speed. it’s driving me crazy lol :D


I'm looking here:
Image
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1530 Postby psyclone » Sat May 26, 2018 11:40 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Breaking: Down to 998 mbs.


Really neat center reformation event. Reminds me a lot of Gabrielle (2001). Nguyen and Molinari (2015) have an excellent paper on that case. I'm curious to see if the convection associated with this new center can sustain in the midst of the present vertical wind shear.


I remember Gabrielle well. Another Gulf sheared storm that ended up right of initial forecasts. This system is bursting some pretty good convection over the Bahamas so its influence is rather broad and impressive at least from a rainfall standpoint.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1531 Postby wxman57 » Sat May 26, 2018 11:41 am

That's what I'm seeing for a center reformation (below). Center reforming north may mean an earlier landfall (noon-ish Monday vs. evening), landfall farther east, and a weaker storm at landfall (more shear).

Image
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1532 Postby robbielyn » Sat May 26, 2018 11:43 am

wxman57 wrote:
robbielyn wrote:would someone please post a loop of the visible that has enough frames in it to see where the new llc is and perhaps circle it as well? thank you in advance.on nhc i can’t control the amount of frames or the speed. it’s driving me crazy lol :D


I'm looking here:
Image

Thank u very much wxman57. i just figured out to click on loop link instead of animated gif. but thank u for the circle. That helps a lot. :)
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Recon: Plane finds new low center pressure down to 998 mbs

#1533 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 26, 2018 11:43 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 261640
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 45 20180526
163000 2257N 08517W 7777 02160 9978 +141 +098 045025 027 /// /// 03
163030 2258N 08518W 7359 02621 9972 +118 +081 040025 027 019 002 03
163100 2259N 08519W 7159 02859 9975 +110 +040 040027 028 021 001 00
163130 2301N 08520W 6998 03049 9971 +104 +030 039023 026 024 001 00
163200 2303N 08521W 6965 03095 9982 +095 +032 034017 022 022 002 00
163230 2303N 08521W 6965 03095 9982 +094 +035 039016 017 022 001 03
163300 2305N 08525W 6966 03087 9981 +090 +047 022015 017 023 001 00
163330 2304N 08527W 6973 03078 9975 +095 +052 022014 016 023 002 00
163400 2304N 08530W 6971 03077 9977 +089 +058 021013 013 021 001 00
163430 2303N 08532W 6972 03071 9974 +089 +060 022016 017 019 002 00
163500 2303N 08535W 6974 03064 9974 +081 +069 033017 018 020 001 03
163530 2302N 08537W 6970 03135 0045 +083 +063 020015 017 016 002 00
163600 2302N 08540W 6977 03145 0071 +081 +064 017015 016 014 001 00
163630 2301N 08543W 6973 03156 0077 +081 +062 018016 017 014 001 00
163700 2300N 08545W 6975 03157 0076 +087 +057 012017 017 012 001 00
163730 2300N 08548W 6984 03145 0075 +086 +062 006016 018 015 000 00
163800 2259N 08550W 6971 03157 0072 +085 +053 011015 016 016 002 00
163830 2259N 08552W 6969 03162 0078 +084 +048 009016 017 010 002 00
163900 2258N 08554W 6968 03163 0081 +080 +054 007016 017 012 001 00
163930 2258N 08556W 6969 03163 0078 +083 +055 356014 015 013 001 00
$$
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1534 Postby Kazmit » Sat May 26, 2018 11:44 am

Wow... recon found 998 mbars. Could be the start of a strengthening trend.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Recon: Plane finds new low center pressure down to 998 mbs

#1535 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 26, 2018 11:44 am

Image
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1536 Postby caneman » Sat May 26, 2018 11:45 am

psyclone wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Breaking: Down to 998 mbs.


Really neat center reformation event. Reminds me a lot of Gabrielle (2001). Nguyen and Molinari (2015) have an excellent paper on that case. I'm curious to see if the convection associated with this new center can sustain in the midst of the present vertical wind shear.


I remember Gabrielle well. Another Gulf sheared storm that ended up right of initial forecasts. This system is bursting some pretty good convection over the Bahamas so its influence is rather broad and impressive at least from a rainfall standpoint.


Remember it well. Right after 9/11 I believe. Hearing Hurrican Hunters buzzing over my house. Very eerie. I believe we were still under a no fly from 9/11?
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1537 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat May 26, 2018 11:46 am

Looks like recon had to climb all the way up to 700 mb, before feeling comfortable enough to penetrate the core of that convective burst. It honestly resembles a supercell on GOES-16. Good luck flying through that...
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1538 Postby Ivanhater » Sat May 26, 2018 11:51 am

12z Canadian into Pensacola
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1539 Postby Nimbus » Sat May 26, 2018 11:51 am

Well with surface pressures falling from 997 at least we shouldn't have much trouble tracking a well defined center. We should have a heading and speed in the next several passes.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1540 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 26, 2018 11:52 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:Looks like recon had to climb all the way up to 700 mb, before feeling comfortable enough to penetrate the core of that convective burst. It honestly resembles a supercell on GOES-16. Good luck flying through that...


Well,plane is climbing so the mission is over.
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