ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Canadian into Pensacola

Here is a closer look of the 12z Canadian into Pensacola.




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[Dean4Storms]

If the ECM is borderline Hurricane I think they'll issue Hurricane Watch for a portion of the Panhandle Coast, will be a close one.

[stormhunter7]

based on the 12z GFS data... if EURO shows the same, i would expect will see Hurricane Watches for Florida Panhandle at the 5pm package. It would be a small area of the coast probably from perdio key to destin pass?

[Dean4Storms]

12z Gfs is alarming for Pensacola

Looks more alarming for FWB and Destin.

[Aric Dunn]

based on the 12z GFS data... if EURO shows the same, i would expect will see Hurricane Watches for Florida Panhandle at the 5pm package. It would be a small area of the coast probably from perdio key to destin pass?

Will probably see watches for sure today at some point. they might wait until the 18z models with the new position location though. The reformation to the current location not likely to change the models. but the NHC might wait anyway.

[Sanibel]

Rain off and on here last 3 days...Steady light rain right now...Wind from SE...

[Ivanhater]

12z Gfs is alarming for Pensacola

Looks more alarming for FWB and Destin.

That track looks alarming for all of us. That's really splitting hairs between Pensacola and FWB 2 days out

[stormhunter7]

based on the 12z GFS data... if EURO shows the same, i would expect will see Hurricane Watches for Florida Panhandle at the 5pm package. It would be a small area of the coast probably from perdio key to destin pass?

Will probably see watches for sure today at some point. they might wait until the 18z models with the new position location though. The reformation to the current location not likely to change the models. but the NHC might wait anyway.

Yeah i thought about that, but because of the reformation, less time until landfall would warrant an advisory? Better to air on side of caution and not have folks wake up tomorrow in a panic? Went to bed a subtropical storm with tropical storm watch... wake up and now we have Hurricane Watch? lol . I know its a hard call, because of wanting to get the forecast right/correct.

[Dean4Storms]

Due to climatology, I don't think anyone is taking this as seriously as they should. Alberto looks like it is getting its act together in a big way. It is days away from landfall, and lot of warm water ahead of it, and lessening shear. All of that combined with a major holiday and millions on their way to the Gulf Coast.

Yep, all day late yesterday and so far today people pouring into the Destin area, even seeing RV's and Trailers left and right coming into town. If I have an RV and see any sort of possible tropical impact I'm headed the other way. I don't understand some people.

[cycloneye]

Saturday TCPOD for missions on late Sunday and Monday.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 261628
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SAT 26 MAY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MAY 2018
         TCPOD NUMBER.....18-005

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 73
       A. 27/2330Z,28/0530Z          A. 28/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0501A ALBERTO        B. AFXXX 0601A ALBERTO
       C. 27/2030Z                   C. 28/0900Z
       D. 27.4N 86.0W                D. 28.7N 86.6W
       E. 27/2300Z TO 28/0530Z       E. 28/1100Z TO 28/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM
       REMAINS A THREAT.

[rolltide]

Looks like the t-storms are trying to wrap around the west side of the COC.

[stormhunter7]

Really curious why no g-IV flight for upper air data over gulf today? Funding issue?

[Aric Dunn]

based on the 12z GFS data... if EURO shows the same, i would expect will see Hurricane Watches for Florida Panhandle at the 5pm package. It would be a small area of the coast probably from perdio key to destin pass?

Will probably see watches for sure today at some point. they might wait until the 18z models with the new position location though. The reformation to the current location not likely to change the models. but the NHC might wait anyway.

Yeah i thought about that, but because of the reformation, less time until landfall would warrant an advisory? Better to air on side of caution and not have folks wake up tomorrow in a panic? Went to bed a subtropical storm with tropical storm watch... wake up and now we have Hurricane Watch? lol . I know its a hard call, because of wanting to get the forecast right/correct.

Yeah, I am sure they are working hard. should only delay the watches till 8 or 11pm.

but who knows. they also have a couple of models that the public cant see. namely the Florida state model which is very good.

[northjaxpro]

Also, looking at the hot towers firing near the center now on visible imagery, no doubt in my mind that Alberto is fully tropical now in nature.

[DestinHurricane]

12z Gfs is alarming for Pensacola

Looks more alarming for FWB and Destin.

Getting worried about my boat on my lift...

[Aric Dunn]

Really curious why no g-IV flight for upper air data over gulf today? Funding issue?

most likely because there is not need for it. since the gulf is surrounded but land and we can launch weather balloon until we are blue in the face

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro initialized:

[Dean4Storms]

Weatherbell.com site is up and running!!

[canefan]

Due to climatology, I don't think anyone is taking this as seriously as they should. Alberto looks like it is getting its act together in a big way. It is days away from landfall, and lot of warm water ahead of it, and lessening shear. All of that combined with a major holiday and millions on their way to the Gulf Coast.

Yep, all day late yesterday and so far today people pouring into the Destin area, even seeing RV's and Trailers left and right coming into town. If I have an RV and see any sort of possible tropical impact I'm headed the other way. I don't understand some people.

It's because all the media has been saying is "this will be mainly a rain event" etc, etc, due to known climatology, etc., and now there is definitely an elevated element of risk...

[Dean4Storms]

12z Gfs is alarming for Pensacola

Looks more alarming for FWB and Destin.

Getting worried about my boat on my lift...

I'd err on the side of caution and get it out of the water if you can. If not, tie it off best you can.