ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

With the new center forming, I think the threat to the Florida Peninsula has increased. Looking more tropical with the convection located near the center. Appears to be becoming better organized. Interesting what next recon mission reveals......MGC

How does the reformation incidate a larger threat to the Florida peninsula? I figured since the reformatIon was a little bit west, it would perhaps add just a little distance to the peninsula, not end up bringing it closer. Or are you referring to stronger effects in the outer bands?

[Ivanhater]

And euro shows strengthening before landfall as well

[fwbbreeze]

Bit of an "Erin"esque approach there. Not referencing the full track or intensity just the direction at landfall.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF being weaker is a good thing. Trends are as positive as they can be. Regardless, looks like models showing a good amount of rain. Hopefully, shear does not let up.

[FLpanhandle91]

Bit of an "Erin"esque approach there. Not referencing the full track or intensity just the direction at landfall.

Thinking the exact same thing. Very much like erin with the ESE to WNW approach.

[TheStormExpert]

First off the 12z Euro initialized Alberto as a 1005mb low when as of 2pm it is already down to 999mb.

[gatorcane]

[Hammy]

I think it's possible we could disregard this set of models on the intensity forecasts as Alberto was much more disorganized just a few hours ago when the data came out.

[tolakram]

This is from Weathermodels.com. I could not find anything on image sharing but will only post this part of the frame to show landfall. Max winds 39.3 knots.

[Ivanhater]

Still packing a punch inland

[tolakram]

Here's the free version from weather.us. With the 3 hour intervals look at this approach.

[gatorcane]

I was looking back at the Euro runs and looks like it has shifted like 300-400 miles to the east on its closest approach to Florida from runs just a couple of days ago. The UKMET looks like it is going to nail the track on this storm. Props to that model.

[Ivanhater]

Great loop! That loop has it wobbling right up to landfall between P'cola and FWB....long couple of days ahead

[slamdaddy]

Not trying to be a chucklehead...but model data is as of the model time. 1200Z run is information accumulated as of that time. so the 1200Z run was as of 7AM CDT or 8AM CDT. not sure if this has any bearing on the center reformation that was discovered around 10AM CDT.

[tolakram]

Here's landfall with wind speeds.

[Dean4Storms]

ECM into Navarre with center.....Wind gusts from P'Cola to PCB 60-70mph!

[MGC]

With the new center forming, I think the threat to the Florida Peninsula has increased. Looking more tropical with the convection located near the center. Appears to be becoming better organized. Interesting what next recon mission reveals......MGC

How does the reformation incidate a larger threat to the Florida peninsula? I figured since the reformatIon was a little bit west, it would perhaps add just a little distance to the peninsula, not end up bringing it closer. Or are you referring to stronger effects in the outer bands?

The center of Alberto is further north, less time for the ULL to turn it NW. I am thinking between AL/FL state line and Destin.....MGC

[tolakram]

Not trying to be a chucklehead...but model data is as of the model time. 1200Z run is information accumulated as of that time. so the 1200Z run was as of 7AM CDT or 8AM CDT. not sure if this has any bearing on the center reformation that was discovered around 10AM CDT.

The euro initialized near the new center location.

[Ivanhater]

ECM into Navarre with center.....Wind gusts from P'Cola to PCB 60-70mph!

Get the coffee ready Dean!

[crimi481]

So what effect will all this dry air have on the storm intensification? Looks like being infused in center
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... rbars=data