ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

Latest SST analysis.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Shear is decreasing.

It is decreasing, but according to that chart it is decreasing to its west. It is heading N to NE of its current position into shear. Am I wrong in my assessment, and can a MET correct me?

[stormhunter7]

Remarkable to watch a subtropical reformation today on satellite! Especially at HI-RES! Still a lot of low to mid level dry air being wrapped into the coc of Alberto.

[MidnightRain]

Looks like the forecasted Northeast motion over the next 12 or so hours will be important as far as potential strength and landfall is concerned.

[SunnyThoughts]

18z GFS running.

[stormhunter7]

Looks like big slow down in 18z gfs up through 36 hours? better defined/structure too?

[SunnyThoughts]

Yeah 989 mb at 36 hrs due south of pcola

[boca]

I’m having problems with satellite pics today.Does anyone have another site to use?

[Kazmit]

18Z GFS takes it into the 970 mbar range.

[SunnyThoughts]

48 hours 984. Lots of tight isobars. Still south of any landfall

[Ivanhater]

Ummm..gfs is not what is forecast for the greater Pensacola area

[SunnyThoughts]

Yeah 977 at hour 54. Still not quite inland

[crownweather]

I’m having problems with satellite pics today.Does anyone have another site to use?

Try this one - http://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/.

[SunnyThoughts]

Ummm..gfs is not what is forecast for the greater Pensacola area

Yeah, hopefully is way overblown on gfs. I have no clue how authorities could get thousands with their little tents camping on the beach out of there.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS initialized higher pressure than what it currently is. 1000 MB is likely a little higher than where it is now and where it will be in 6 hours.

[aperson]

GFS shows a system that borderline rapidly intensifies for the 24 hours prior to landfall



NAM similarly went nuts once vorts consolidated near that location.

[Dean4Storms]

18Z GFS landfall just East of P'Cola.....had wind gusts to 75mph.

[robbielyn]

i think it’s the warmer ssts

[Ivanhater]

Ummm..gfs is not what is forecast for the greater Pensacola area

Yeah, hopefully is way overblown on gfs. I have no clue how authorities could get thousands with their little tents camping on the beach out of there.

As you know..thousands are camping out near portofino this weekend with no clue about tropical weather. Unless these models change..they need to get into hotels or at least away from the beach

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the upper levels. alberto will soon be in or very close to highly divergent and conducive for intensification once it begins to move with the upper winds. should stay on a steady NOrth motion for the next 24hrs or so.