2018 EPAC Season
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Maybe a longtracker soon?
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote:Maybe a longtracker soon?
[img]https://i.imgur.com/m03u1FR.png[img]
GFS has been showing it in the past couple of runs.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Kingarabian,you made that post on May 22 about this and look now how GFS is responding.Let's see if ECMWF also turns bullish.
@ToddKimberlain
MJO moving out of the eastern hemisphere to the Dateline by the end of May. No signs of it spawning a west pac typhoon, but an epac TC likely 1st week of June. Will the Atlantic have an opportunity after that (~June 7-12) ? #tropics #HurricaneSeason #HurricaneSeason2018
https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1000190154508824579
@ToddKimberlain
MJO moving out of the eastern hemisphere to the Dateline by the end of May. No signs of it spawning a west pac typhoon, but an epac TC likely 1st week of June. Will the Atlantic have an opportunity after that (~June 7-12) ? #tropics #HurricaneSeason #HurricaneSeason2018
https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1000190154508824579
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- NotSparta
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
EPAC longtrackers are nice to watch, since most of them are fish
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote: Kingarabian,you made that post on May 22 about this and look now how GFS is responding.Let's see if ECMWF also turns bullish.
@ToddKimberlain
MJO moving out of the eastern hemisphere to the Dateline by the end of May. No signs of it spawning a west pac typhoon, but an epac TC likely 1st week of June. Will the Atlantic have an opportunity after that (~June 7-12) ? #tropics #HurricaneSeason #HurricaneSeason2018
[tweet]https://twitt.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1000190154508824579[/tweet]
I think both will eventually show more chances for development once they get a better handle on the MJO progression.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
GFS has shown different scenarios of the long range cyclone for 5 of the last 6 runs.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote: Kingarabian,you made that post on May 22 about this and look now how GFS is responding.Let's see if ECMWF also turns bullish.
@ToddKimberlain
MJO moving out of the eastern hemisphere to the Dateline by the end of May. No signs of it spawning a west pac typhoon, but an epac TC likely 1st week of June. Will the Atlantic have an opportunity after that (~June 7-12) ? #tropics #HurricaneSeason #HurricaneSeason2018
https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1000190154508824579
This is the classic early season inactive EPAC setup we're in right now. This will change when the MJO returns, which shouldn't be to early or mid June. GFS tends to move the MJO too fast so I wouldn't be surprised if the anticipated return of the MJO gets pushed back.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
12z ECMWF begins to latch on something but let's wait for more runs and to see if other models heat up.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote:12z ECMWF begins to latch on something but let's wait for more runs and to see if other models heat up.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/CjJS5zz.png[img]
Pretty strong EPS support for the second TC of the season in 7-10 days. The GFS is not going to show development in the near future while it corrects its MJO forecast.
PC: Ryan Maue - Http://www.Weathermodels.com
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:cycloneye wrote:12z ECMWF begins to latch on something but let's wait for more runs and to see if other models heat up.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/CjJS5zz.png[img]
Pretty strong EPS support for the second TC of the season in 7-10 days. The GFS is not going to show development in the near future while it corrects its MJO forecast.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/W5lDTl5.png
PC: Ryan Maue - Http://www.Weathermodels.com
Even the latest ECMWF barely brings the MJO to phase 6 in the 7-10 day range, that's still not a very good phase for far eastern EPAC, IMO.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
July is usually start of longtrackers for the EPAC as waves cross over from the Atlantic (subtropical high prevents development over there). Superimposed with climo the next major CCKW/MJO should light up this basin imo. Models may be a bit fast, I'd wait for late June for some ACE rakers to start on the western side into the CPAC
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:cycloneye wrote:12z ECMWF begins to latch on something but let's wait for more runs and to see if other models heat up.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/CjJS5zz.png[img]
Pretty strong EPS support for the second TC of the season in 7-10 days. The GFS is not going to show development in the near future while it corrects its MJO forecast.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/W5lDTl5.png
PC: Ryan Maue - Http://www.Weathermodels.com
Even the latest ECMWF barely brings the MJO to phase 6 in the 7-10 day range, that's still not a very good phase for far eastern EPAC, IMO.
The trend in the last couple of runs on the Euro is for the MJO to end up in the WPAC eventually:
The TC being modeled out is due to conditions gradually becoming favorable with the departure of the sinking motion that has been over the EPAC for the most of May.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:
Pretty strong EPS support for the second TC of the season in 7-10 days. The GFS is not going to show development in the near future while it corrects its MJO forecast.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/W5lDTl5.png
PC: Ryan Maue - Http://www.Weathermodels.com
Even the latest ECMWF barely brings the MJO to phase 6 in the 7-10 day range, that's still not a very good phase for far eastern EPAC, IMO.
The trend in the last couple of runs on the Euro is for the MJO to end up in the WPAC eventually:
The TC being modeled out is due to conditions gradually becoming favorable with the departure of the sinking motion that has been over the EPAC for the most of May.
But my question is if the mJO is barely in phase 6 in the 7-10 day range, far western west pacific, would it not be the best conditions in the far eastern EPAC?
Perhaps the Euro is jumping on development way too quickly and may not be until at least mid June, IMO.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:
Even the latest ECMWF barely brings the MJO to phase 6 in the 7-10 day range, that's still not a very good phase for far eastern EPAC, IMO.
The trend in the last couple of runs on the Euro is for the MJO to end up in the WPAC eventually:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/BxMOPdu.gif[img]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/yZwVyHK.png[img]
The TC being modeled out is due to conditions gradually becoming favorable with the departure of the sinking motion that has been over the EPAC for the most of May.
But my question is if the mJO is barely in phase 6 in the 7-10 day range, far western west pacific, would it not be the best conditions in the far eastern EPAC?
Perhaps the Euro is jumping on development way too quickly and may not be until at least mid June, IMO.
I certainly see what you're saying. Perhaps the Euro is hinting at TC genesis due to improved local conditions.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
As was said here,it may be by mid June that the action begins to jell as both GFS and ECMWF have gone back in time especially the Euro that had more developed system at 12z than at 00z.
Edit: 06Z GFS heats up.
Edit: 06Z GFS heats up.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
12z GFS continues to show development this time tracking to CentralAmerica.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
A look at the 51 member EPS is bringing the timeframe down on this slowly. There's likely a decent shot at an EPAC tropical cyclone next week actually, despite the not so favorable MJO.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
12z ECMWF continues to hint on development in 10 days.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Looks like more model consensus now for development late next week from GFS,FV3,ECMWF,ICON,CMC.The only one with a bonifide long tracker is FV3.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
At 12z model package,the consensus continued with the main model GFS and ECMWF. At this run,Euro is much more bullish.
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