Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

[Weather150]

12z GFS does have a weak surface low forming in 36 hrs.

[stormlover2013]

From srain: The 12Z ECMWF has a very sharp trough attempting to close off a surface low as it approaches the Middle TX Coast Sunday morning near Matagorda Bay. This run of the Euro is the sharpest trough I've seen all week via the ECMWF.

[jaguars_22]

SO that means central tx coast will get spared the heaviest rain and Houston and Louisiana gets the worst??

[wxman57]

SO that means central tx coast will get spared the heaviest rain and Houston and Louisiana gets the worst??

Models have trended just the opposite - away from SE TX and LA with the heavier precip. 12z Euro has most of the precip moving into NE Mexico. GFS still has some heavy rain on the mid Texas coast, but not much from Houston eastward.

[jaguars_22]

What do you think will happen? How much is Euro showing for Victoria

[mcheer23]

SO that means central tx coast will get spared the heaviest rain and Houston and Louisiana gets the worst??

Models have trended just the opposite - away from SE TX and LA with the heavier precip. 12z Euro has most of the precip moving into NE Mexico.

Yup model that hasn't is CMC.

[stormlover2013]

Mcheer: so upper Texas coast wont get to much rain? Are models struggling with this feature ?

[mcheer23]

Mcheer: so upper Texas coast wont get to much rain? Are models struggling with this feature ?

Too soon to say. The best forecast would still be 2-5 and 6+ isolated.

Invest 92l will probably be up soon.

[wxman57]

What do you think will happen? How much is Euro showing for Victoria

Euro has about 1-3 inches of rain in Victoria today through Wednesday.

[northjaxpro]

WPC 15Z analysis depicts pressures around 1012 mb near the surface trough in the Northwest Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

850MB vorticity map shows increasing vorticity if you step back the last 6 hours in 3 hour increments:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Kazmit]

To be clear, this is a different system than 91L?

[mcheer23]

To be clear, this is a different system than 91L?

Yes

[Weather150]

[Siker]

Any 12z EPS support? Also if anyone has a free method of checking without clicking through every ensemble member on weather.us that would be greatly appreciated .

[wxman22]

With this kind of setup, qpf forecast can change drastically quickly for any given area, depending on if the system wraps up or not. If it does most of the rain would be shifted to the north and east of the center of circulation and a stronger system would be able to concentrate rains better over an area, which would probably give Southeast Texas the heaviest rain, while an open wave could have a harder time fighting off the High pressure to our east, hence why the models that show an open wave shunts the moisture plume further to our south quicker. While the models that show more of a closed low like the CMC produces a much higher amount of qpf across the area. Bears watch imo...

[psyclone]

There's a trend of persistent convection over the northwest Caribbean so far this season. With the MDR so cool the western Caribbean, Gulf and areas off the southeast coast will likely be the hot spots with close in development...maybe fewer systems overall but short fused threats that can escalate quickly...especially once we hit the mid August and beyond hot zone..

[stormreader]

Way back when, at the time that the GFS in particular began to give us model runs depicting formation coming out of the W Carib and into the GOM, we waited and from the monsoonal gyre interacting with a tropical wave we got 91l. I don't watch models near as closely as many on this site, but is it possible that the system we see now in the NW Carib might have been what the GFS (and a few other models) was hinting at for development in the GOM. Perhaps its academic, because from what I hear from many of you, the only model giving any real support for this feature right now is the CMC.

[Clearcloudz]

Get ready for big changes in the forecast. This disturbance is gonna show sister 91L how its really done. Just give me one chance and I'll show you how its really done 91L.

[WAcyclone]

Any 12z EPS support? Also if anyone has a free method of checking without clicking through every ensemble member on weather.us that would be greatly appreciated .

There seems to be quite a bit of support for a system in the gulf by the EPS but I'm not sure if that's the same system which is being discussed in this thread. In fact, some of the members are even showing hurricanes. Here are some useful EPS links:

Wind speed values for all individual EPS members:
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/902-w-263-n/2018061512-240.html

MSLP values for all EPS members:
https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ecmwf/eps_global_cyclones.php

Probability of a tropical depression, storm or hurricane:
https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ecmwf/eps_tropical.php