Texas Summer 2018

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

That sharp cutoff gradient is similar to a similar system which impacted South Texas a few weeks ago. So it’s not all that unusual considering the synoptics in play. Last time Austin got stiffed in the rainfall dept., so hopefully we’ll do better this time.

Yeah, would be nice. Looking at the native vegetation around here, we need it badly. There is a black area in the median along Parmer near the 45 toll that I saw driving home. I noticed it a few weeks ago, and patches of green have grown back in since I noticed it. I'm thinking someone tossed out a cigarette(?). Tinder fuels.

[gboudx]

Looking good for rain for you SETX folks. Hopefully no flooding.

Heavy rainfall will be possible this evening through Wednesday.

Weak surface low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico yesterday has moved inland over SE Louisiana this morning in association with a 500mb inverted trough moving westward along the central US Gulf coast. This feature will continue to move westward and arrive into SE TX late this afternoon and evening. Air mass is starting to moisten from the east this morning and expect this trend to continue today as moisture over the central and eastern Gulf coast states moves westward. PWS will rise to near 2.0 inches by late this afternoon and continue to increase to near 2.4 inches by Wednesday morning. Surface circulation will arrive into SE TX early Wednesday morning helping to concentrate showers and thunderstorms.

Expect a band of strong thunderstorms to develop over SW Louisiana later today and rotate WSW/SW toward SE TX this evening. Meso models show this band reaching the I-45 corridor this evening. This band will be moving into a very warm air mass with temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s and might support an isolated damaging wind threat along any leading outflow boundaries.

Surface low and 500mb trough axis will be overhead late tonight into Wednesday morning. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop near the center of the surface low late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Some models are indicating the focus of this activity will be around Galveston Bay and then spreading WNW and inland over SE TX early Wednesday morning. Air mass will become saturated by this time, so expect very heavy rainfall. Hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches will be possible with this activity.

Overall storm totals will average 1-3 inches over the region with the focus being around Galveston Bay. Isolated totals of 4-6 inches are certainly possible under any areas of cell training or sustained banding. Grounds have had a chance to dry out since the mid June rains and flash flood guidance is fairly high over the region…so think most areas will be able to handle the rainfall although some street flooding will be possible in the more urban areas. With that said these sort of “tropical lows” can produce very heavy rainfall near their center of circulation during the overnight hours and tonight/early Wednesday the circulation center will be somewhere between Houston and Lake Charles.

Extended:

Wet pattern remains in place through the weekend as the area remains in easterly upper level flow and tropical waves will approach and cross the region every 1-2 days enhancing rainfall. Sub-tropical high pressure will build over the western US and looks to remain far enough NW/W of the region to keep rain chances going for the next several days.

[JDawg512]

:uarrow:

That sharp cutoff gradient is similar to a similar system which impacted South Texas a few weeks ago. So it’s not all that unusual considering the synoptics in play. Last time Austin got stiffed in the rainfall dept., so hopefully we’ll do better this time.

According to EWX, models are pushing the low further south along the I-10 corridor. Considering that my frogs and toads have been making noise the last couple of nights, I'm sure some rain will fall, but it could very well be a situation where most of the rain stays south of Austin.

[weatherdude1108]

Whatever the case, this is a much nicer extended forecast than what we have seen the past month, at least. One multi-inch soaking downpour, and I'm good for a while.


Rain chances are on the way for Wednesday into Thursday as an upper level disturbance moves from east to west across the area. Scattered showers and storms are possible across the eastern half of the area on Wednesday and all of South Central Texas on Thursday. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected mid to late week. A second surge of moisture arrives Friday into the weekend with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across our area through the period.

[Haris]

[Haris]

Good trend in the models

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Rain chances look good through the weekend for us. Relative humiditys in the 700-400mb levels increase again this weekend. Most of this summer they have been extremely dry.

[lrak]

I sure would be worried at Houston Hobby airport waiting to board for S. Tex right now....Wow big storms moving in the radar is estimating around 1.5 inches an hour.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 1&loop=yes


Oh and happy 4th of July fellow Texans

[Ntxw]

DFW has been collecting 100s. 7 so far this summer. Last summer had a total of 10.

103 today.

[Haris]

OOF!!!

[Brent]

DFW has been collecting 100s. 7 so far this summer. Last summer had a total of 10.

103 today.

Ugh and its barely July

Only good news is that might be the last one this week

[rwfromkansas]

Plenty of rain just a few hours east of DFW. Frustrating. Outflow coming through bringing wind and humidity.

[TheProfessor]

That Outflow boundary ruined our fireworks show!

[lrak]

DFW has been collecting 100s. 7 so far this summer. Last summer had a total of 10.

103 today.

I'm hoping this Gulf system will at least give you a chance. it stretches from the north Mississippi to the middle of the Gulf and if continues west without dissipating you may have a shot.

[Ntxw]

DFW has been collecting 100s. 7 so far this summer. Last summer had a total of 10.

103 today.

Ugh and its barely July

Only good news is that might be the last one this week

Stay the course! Miserable now but CFSv2 is forecasting a moderate El Nino! Skill scores improves from the Spring Barrier. We need that moderate Nino for winter it will make it all better

2009..2009...2009

[NotSparta]

DFW has been collecting 100s. 7 so far this summer. Last summer had a total of 10.

103 today.

Ugh and its barely July

Only good news is that might be the last one this week

Stay the course! Miserable now but CFSv2 is forecasting a moderate El Nino! Skill scores improves from the Spring Barrier. We need that moderate Nino for winter it will make it all better

2009..2009...2009

This winter sure looks like 2009 imo, probably the best analog you can get

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ugh and its barely July

Only good news is that might be the last one this week

Stay the course! Miserable now but CFSv2 is forecasting a moderate El Nino! Skill scores improves from the Spring Barrier. We need that moderate Nino for winter it will make it all better

2009..2009...2009

This winter sure looks like 2009 imo, probably the best analog you can get

That winter was the first winter i said, "ive had enough, ready for spring and hot weather." BRING IT!

[Ntxw]

Ugh and its barely July

Only good news is that might be the last one this week

Stay the course! Miserable now but CFSv2 is forecasting a moderate El Nino! Skill scores improves from the Spring Barrier. We need that moderate Nino for winter it will make it all better

2009..2009...2009

This winter sure looks like 2009 imo, probably the best analog you can get

It is the best it gets for snow in Texas. For whatever reason during a moderate Nino December has better odds to be below normal and snowy vs weak, strong, or supers. The other kinds tend to fold into the climo of warm Nov-Dec and colder as winter goes..except for the moderates...they tend to be more wall to wall below.

[NotSparta]

Stay the course! Miserable now but CFSv2 is forecasting a moderate El Nino! Skill scores improves from the Spring Barrier. We need that moderate Nino for winter it will make it all better

2009..2009...2009

This winter sure looks like 2009 imo, probably the best analog you can get

It is the best it gets for snow in Texas. For whatever reason during a moderate Nino December has better odds to be below normal and snowy vs weak, strong, or supers. The other kinds tend to fold into the climo of warm Nov-Dec and colder as winter goes..except for the moderates...they tend to be more wall to wall below.

You've got eQBO (favors -NAO/-AO) and low solar (causes higher PNA values) on your side too. Looking very favorable for cold this winter. Maybe if there's another persistent -EPO, all of the CONUS will ice over

[Haris]

GET READY FOR a rainstorm!