ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

NAMs came in left and much stronger. 3 k nam... well... lets just say we wont have a cat 4 by Tuesday morning

[LarryWx]

The high resolution NAM has based on numerous runs proven to be a joke when it comes to over intensifying TCs. Just awful so much of the time.

[NotSparta]

NAMs came in left and much stronger. 3 k nam... well... lets just say we wont have a cat 4 by Tuesday morning

Isn't that the same model that made Alberto a near major? It's never really a good idea to seriously look at NAM models anyway for TCs

[Alyono]

UKMET has a cane into New England

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03L ANALYSED POSITION : 33.2N 75.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.07.2018 0 33.2N 75.0W 1013 33
1200UTC 08.07.2018 12 33.1N 75.2W 1012 31
0000UTC 09.07.2018 24 32.4N 74.3W 1008 36
1200UTC 09.07.2018 36 32.3N 74.6W 1003 38
0000UTC 10.07.2018 48 32.0N 75.2W 997 44
1200UTC 10.07.2018 60 31.9N 75.7W 992 59
0000UTC 11.07.2018 72 32.1N 75.7W 984 58
1200UTC 11.07.2018 84 33.1N 74.7W 971 69
0000UTC 12.07.2018 96 35.3N 72.4W 959 80
1200UTC 12.07.2018 108 39.0N 70.3W 948 75
0000UTC 13.07.2018 120 41.4N 70.3W 967 59
1200UTC 13.07.2018 132 42.9N 70.1W 991 43
0000UTC 14.07.2018 144 44.4N 68.7W 1003 31

[cycloneye]

I am going to sleep so who can post the data from the mission that is now in progress?

[Kazmit]

00z GFS stronger as well.

[Alyono]

pressures are quite a bit lower

However, the center is well NW of the convection. This has been fully decoupled

[NotSparta]

pressures are quite a bit lower

However, the center is well NW of the convection. This has been fully decoupled

LLC probably going to try to relocate to that blob to the SSE

[AJC3]

pressures are quite a bit lower

However, the center is well NW of the convection. This has been fully decoupled

LLC probably going to try to relocate to that blob to the SSE

From what I see on 3.9UM right now, the LLC does appear to be in the process of executing a small cyclonic loop. I think it will probably wind up close to that convective ball later today, assuming the NW shear relaxes a bit.

[NotSparta]

Upgraded to TS Chris.

AL, 03, 2018070806, , BEST, 0, 332N, 755W, 35, 1009, TS

[JtSmarts]

Well, if Chris does end up getting close to the coast, we have the archives to know that the UKMET led the charge. We still have some time to see if other models start trending more left. I know early on, the GFS had something that was closer to coast runner.

[Airboy]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 6:27Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Tropical Depression: Three (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06

A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 5:45:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 33.20N 75.50W
B. Center Fix Location: 128 statute miles (205 km) to the SE (146°) from Morehead City, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 758m (2,487ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 35kts (40.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 89 nautical miles (102 statute miles) to the NW (312°) of center fix at 5:17:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 41° at 39kts (From the NE at 44.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 97 nautical miles (112 statute miles) to the NW (312°) of center fix at 5:14:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 41kts (47.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 52 nautical miles (60 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix at 6:03:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 201° at 45kts (From the SSW at 51.8mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix at 6:05:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 765m (2,510ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph) which was observed 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the SE (131°) from the flight level center at 6:05:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the NW (315°) from the flight level center

[Airboy]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 8:23Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Tropical Depression: Three (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 09

A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 7:50:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 33.00N 75.50W
B. Center Fix Location: 156 statute miles (251 km) to the S (179°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 770m (2,526ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 28kts (32.2mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 63 nautical miles (72 statute miles) to the NNE (28°) of center fix at 7:29:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 125° at 31kts (From the SE at 35.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the NNE (29°) of center fix at 7:28:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 27kts (31.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix at 8:05:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 323° at 33kts (From the NW at 38.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix at 8:00:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 756m (2,480ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph) which was observed 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (124°) from the flight level center at 6:05:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chris Advisory Number 7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018

Corrected wording in hazards section

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CHRIS...
...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WHILE IT MEANDERS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 75.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES



Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has been investigating
the cyclone early this morning, and found flight-level winds of 45
kt at 925 mb and believable SFMR surface winds of around 34
kt in the southeast quadrant. On this basis, the system has been
designated as Tropical Storm Chris, the 3rd named storm of the 2018
Atlantic season.

Although the winds associated with the tropical storm have increased
a little, the overall organization of Chris has not changed much
over the past few hours. The low-level center is still exposed to
the north of a broken band of deep convection and the cyclone lacks
an inner-core. Chris is located over very warm SSTs and will
remain so for the next several days. While the broad nature of the
cyclone's circulation and some moderate shear will likely limit the
intensification rate over the next day or so, all of the intensity
guidance indicates that Chris will become a hurricane within about
72-h. By day 4, the intensity forecast is more uncertain,
and depends strongly on the timing of Chris crossing the Gulf
Stream, since the cyclone is expected to continue to intensify as
long as it remains over warm waters. Once extratropical transition
begins, weakening should occur as the wind field broadens. The new
intensity forecast is close to HCCA and IVCN through day 3, and
slightly lower beyond that, closer to the previous forecast.

The track guidance has once again made a large shift with the latest
forecast cycle. While Chris is generally expected to continue to
meander off the coast of the Carolinas for the next couple of days
before accelerating to the northeast ahead of a deep-layer trough
approaching from the northwest, the timing of this acceleration is
highly uncertain. Nearly all of the dynamical models have now
shifted to the south and west of their previous forecasts throughout
most of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast has been
adjusted in that direction, but now lies on the eastern side of the
guidance envelope, and shows a faster motion than most of the
models. Given the large run-to-run inconsistency of the guidance
over the past 24 hours, I would prefer to wait to make a more
significant change to the forecast until a more clear pattern
emerges.

The Air Force reconnaissance plane also measured winds to
gale-force about 20 miles off the coast of North Carolina. These
winds are associated with the tight pressure gradient between
Chris and high pressure over the northeastern U.S. See products
issued by the National Weather Service forecast offices for more
details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 33.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 33.0N 75.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 32.8N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 32.6N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 32.7N 74.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 35.2N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 41.5N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 49.0N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[seahawkjd]

From the visible it looks like its moving west. I guess its getting pulled under the convection or is it an illusion?

[NotSparta]

From the visible it looks like its moving west. I guess its getting pulled under the convection or is it an illusion?

The center dove SE toward the convection

[cycloneye]

Up to 40 kts.

AL, 03, 2018070812, , BEST, 0, 333N, 750W, 40, 1009, TS

[seahawkjd]

Maybe I was just seeing the expansion then. It definitely seems to be getting its act together.

[northjaxpro]

Chris is definitely getting his act together now. He is organizing very good now. He is a go now for likely this to become a hurricane soon and a rather healthy one at that.

[Hurricaneman]

New England and eastern Canada need to watch this closely