ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

In the previous pass, Recon and Dvorak were in good agreement so I'd say we have to go with 90 kt here.

[cycloneye]

SAB up to 5.0.

TXNT27 KNES 110028
TCSNTL

A. 03L (CHRIS)

B. 10/2347Z

C. 33.9N

D. 72.0W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN DG AND SURROUNDED BY LG RESULTING
IN A DT OF 5.0 WHICH INCLUDES 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET = 4.5 AND PT
= 5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[1900hurricane]

90 kt/967 mb is probably what I would use for 00Z.

[Twisted-core]

looking very robust this system.

[Yellow Evan]

In the previous pass, Recon and Dvorak were in good agreement so I'd say we have to go with 90 kt here.

If TAFB comes in at T5.5 and since CMISS is T5.4, I could see 95 or even 100 knots.

[cycloneye]

They went with 85 kts on 00z Best Track:

AL, 03, 2018071100, , BEST, 0, 339N, 719W, 85, 976, HU

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Chris is making a run for major hurricane status. If obtained, Chris will be the first July major hurricane since Bertha in 2008 (10 years ago already?)

[Yellow Evan]

AL, 03, 201807110000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 3390N, 7190W, , 1, 77, 2, 979, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , 10, L, TAFB, DM, I, 1, 4545 /////, , , GOES16, CSC, T,

What in the world yields T4.5?

[northjaxpro]

He is in a good spot currently for more intensification, at least the next 12-24.hours before traversing into cooler ssts.

I think Cat 3 is very possible.

[Hammy]

Tropical Atlantic is showing 85kt.

[tolakram]

There is some westerly shear over the system, you can see it on the last visible. Uh, westerly shear means out of the west, right? Left? Anyway it appears that might keep the intensity in check.

[HurricaneBelle]

It's official:

WTNT33 KNHC 110243
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Chris Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

...CHRIS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 71.4W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 1285 MI...2070 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES

[Kazmit]

They went with 90kts... I think it had a very good chance of reaching major status tomorrow.

[Hammy]

Strongest July hurricane in ten years.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Chris has been rapidly intensifying since the center moved out of
the area of upwelled cold water about 18 h ago, likely due to an
inner core convective ring seen earlier in microwave imagery
becoming a fully-developed eyewall as the cyclone encountered warmer
water. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB at 00Z were
90 kt and 77 kt, and the CIMSS SATCON technique estimate was 90 kt.
Based on this and a subsequent increase in organization, the initial
intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 90 kt.

The initial motion remains 050/9. Chris is becoming embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies between the subtropical ridge to the
southeast and a large deep-layer trough over eastern Canada and the
northeastern United states. The combination of these features
should cause Chris to accelerate northeastward into the North
Atlantic through 96 h, passing near southeastern Newfoundland in
about 48 h. The new forecast track is a blend of the previous track
and the HCCA and TVCN consensus models, and it is a little faster
than the previous forecast.

The eye of Chris is about to move over an area of slightly cooler
water south of the core of the Gulf Stream, and this will likely
slow the intensification rate. Otherwise, conditions appear
favorable for intensification for the next 18-24 h, and the
intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening before Chris
moves north of the Gulf Stream. Extratropical transition should
begin after Chris moves north of the Gulf Stream and be complete
before the cyclone passes near southeastern Newfoundland. After
that, the extratropical low should gradually decay as it crosses
the North Atlantic. The new intensity forecast is increased from
the previous forecast for the first 36 h based on current trends,
and it has been lowered from the previous forecast between 72-120 h
based on the latest guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 34.2N 71.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 35.8N 69.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 38.8N 64.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 42.8N 59.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 46.6N 53.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0000Z 53.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0000Z 57.0N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/0000Z 61.5N 10.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

They say this at discussion:

the initial
intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 90 kt.

[EquusStorm]

Lines up well with T# being right near Category Three but the final recon mission noting slightly lower surface winds than would be expected for the presentation. I thought Cat 3 was a slightly outside shot, but now the official forecast calls for 95kt, so we might well indeed break the record for northernmost July major. If it doesn't just randomly fall apart, lol

[CrazyC83]

I would have gone with 95 kt based on continued improvement the last 3 hours, but it is definitely on the upswing. Best chance at major status is likely in the next 12 hours.

[Ubuntwo]

Strongest July hurricane in ten years.

8 years - Alex 2010 reached peak intensity with 110MPH on July 1st. But Chris may overtake that at this rate.

[tolakram]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2018 Time : 024543 UTC
Lat : 34:13:12 N Lon : 71:20:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 957.3mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.3 5.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +13.3C Cloud Region Temp : -53.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 70km
- Environmental MSLP : 1015mb

Satellite Name : GOES16
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.9 degrees