Texas Summer 2018

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro Ensemble Mean also trended much wetter across a large part of Texas over the next 2 weeks. Maybe we will have a rare wet August this year?!

I was going to ask, this doesn't necessarily mean tropical, but just an overall possibility of increased moisture?

Yeah we'll see. With the peak of hurricane season quickly approaching, of course we will need to monitor the tropics closely.

[Haris]

https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2018/08/01/opt ... ow-winter/ …

This is a summer thread , sorry for posting it here but not many folks are going to be checking the winter thread so i'll do it here

[Brent]

This is a summer thread , sorry for posting it here but not many folks are going to be checking the winter thread so i'll do it here

never be sorry about mentioning snow

The DFW streak has to end soon

[starsfan65]

This is a summer thread , sorry for posting it here but not many folks are going to be checking the winter thread so i'll do it here

never be sorry about mentioning snow

The DFW streak has to end soon

I hope it is doesn't get as hot as 2 weeks ago.

[Brent]

This is a summer thread , sorry for posting it here but not many folks are going to be checking the winter thread so i'll do it here

never be sorry about mentioning snow

The DFW streak has to end soon

I hope it is doesn't get as hot as 2 weeks ago.

don't see any signs of that so far... maybe a couple days near 100 but still not what we saw already

[weatherdude1108]

Rinse...repeat...
At least the lows aren't too warm.

[Ralph's Weather]

A very pleasant 64 degrees this morning.

[JDawg512]

Been in deep slumber lately aside from dealing with my neck injury and working at my new happy place taking care of fish and aquariums and being surrounded by water! Just trying to keep some of my trees and larger plants alive as several of them are stressed (even native species). Looking desperately into the long range trying to find any hints of beneficial wet relief.

[bubba hotep]

No 100s on the 00z Euro EPS for DFW, is the end in sight? I'm up on CO with the family but couldn't help sneaking a peak to see what we will be waiting for us when we return to DFW lol

[CaptinCrunch]

I had a rare rain shower this moring at the house as I was leaving for work. Just enough to wet the ground and create steam, but it counts...lol

[Haris]

Here is my weekend outlook for Austin . Have a great one !

[Haris]

EPS up to 1.6" statewide

[weatherdude1108]

Here is my weekend outlook for Austin . Have a great one !

How do you do those graphics? That looks professional. I thought I was looking at a tv station at first, then saw your name.lol

That's cool!

[weatherdude1108]

Slight hint of a pattern change at the end of the discussion, compared to "status quo" on yesterday's discussion.

I think EWX is partial to the GFS. They seem to mimick what I see on the GFS. Although they sometimes side with the Euro. Anyway, just a passing thought.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
241 PM CDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Return flow this afternoon will start to increase moisture levels
going into the weekend. Trough that is located over the Mississippi
Valley has begun to lift today and will continue to, as the
subtropical ridge out west slowly works its way into West TX and the
subtropical ridge out east begins to build. Light winds and clear
skies are expected overnight tonight and will allow for effective
radiative cooling. However, slightly higher surface moisture values
in place should prevent the exceptional cooling the region saw last
night. Daytime temperatures for Friday are expected to be a couple
degrees above climo norms.


&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
As the upper level trough fractures from the subtropical ridge
building in over the central US, an inverted trough will be left in
the western Gulf. This feature will move into far southern TX on
Saturday and then into Mexico, bringing a surge of moisture and a
chance for diurnally driven seabreeze convection. Have kept 20-30
afternoon POPs for the weekend and into Monday for the Coastal Plains.
Temperatures after Monday will begin a mild warming trend as the
ridge makes it`s present felt with less cloud cover and general
subsidence. Towards the end of the forecast period, the ridge will
again shift back out to the western part of the country. This
movement of the ridge should allow chances for disturbances to make
their way over central TX embedded in the mean flow of a developing
trough over the central US.

[weatherdude1108]

Below normal hurricane activity according to what Bob Rose stated in his blog:

The CSU forecast team states: "The tropical Atlantic remains anomalously cool, and vertical wind shear across the Caribbean has been quite strong over the past month. The tropical Atlantic has also been very dry in July. All these conditions tend to be associated with quieter Atlantic hurricane seasons. There remains uncertainty as to if an El Niño will develop over the next few months. However, regardless if conditions remain in ENSO-neutral territory or anomalously warm to a weak El Niño event, we believe that the hurricane-unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic are likely to persist over the next several months".

Conditions are currently quiet across the tropical Atlantic, with several patches of Saharan dust in place. None of the long-range computer-forecast solutions show tropical cyclone genesis for at least the next 7 days.

Bob

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

[Haris]

Here is my weekend outlook for Austin . Have a great one !

How do you do those graphics? That looks professional. I thought I was looking at a tv station at first, then saw your name.lol

That's cool!

lol thanks... It's all done really in PowerPoint.

[weatherdude1108]

Here is my weekend outlook for Austin . Have a great one !

How do you do those graphics? That looks professional. I thought I was looking at a tv station at first, then saw your name.lol

That's cool!

lol thanks... It's all done really in PowerPoint.

I guessed PowerPoint, but wasn't sure. I haven't needed to use PowerPoint in so long, I don't even know what upgrades have been done to it.lol

[CaptinCrunch]

Part of the FTW NWS AFD

The European and NAM are definitely stronger
with the upper high to our west building into the area somewhat
versus the GFS. Thus, will be advertising high temperatures
slightly above normal and between 95-100 degrees each afternoon.
Drought conditions are increasing across parts of the area. There
are areas of combustible small vegetation and grasses, but plenty
of green healthy fuels mixed in as well, so for now, we`ll just
continue to advertise "elevated" fire conditions. These trends
will likely continue into Monday, before gulf moisture really
begins to surge northward going through next week.

The upper high will likely continue one more day of above normal
high temperatures(don`t worry, nothing like the record heat a week
or two ago). Medium range models do agree on deepening a longwave
trough over the Great Lakes into the Hudson Bay area of Eastern
Canada the latter half of next week. A strong shortwave
disturbance dives southeast into the Mid Mississippi Valley helps
dampen and weaken the upper high over our area with North and
Central Texas returning into strong north-northwest flow aloft.
The combination of a few shortwave disturbances moving southeast
across the area and the arrival of a cold front will bring
increasing rain chances beginning Wednesday. The mid level height
falls, increasing cloudiness, and the potential for some low level
cold advection will help high temperatures lower down more toward
normals in the lower-middle 90s for late next week. With
uncertainties regarding timing of both surface and mid level
features, will only advertise 20-40 percent POPs for now until
details become more clear in the coming days regarding showers and
storms and associated rainfall.

Cooler (lower/Mid 90's) Rain chances.....I'll take it

[aggiecutter]

Very beneficial rains return to NE Texas next week:

[Haris]

How do you do those graphics? That looks professional. I thought I was looking at a tv station at first, then saw your name.lol

That's cool!

]

I guessed PowerPoint, but wasn't sure. I haven't needed to use PowerPoint in so long, I don't even know what upgrades have been done to it.lol

Yeah PowerPoint has many options to make graphics look cool . Why pay $180 a month or something for photoshop !? Trying to make my forecasts more professional and official . I post them on twitter mainly .