WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

Amazing what a small area Hector's hurricane windfield is, a buoy just 70 miles north of Hector reported only low end tropical storm force winds in wind gusts never in sustained winds.


https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=51004

[Eric Webb]

Dvorak intensity estimates are falling like a rock, I could see Hector being lowered to ~100 KT at the next advisory even if 12z BEST track is at 110 KT.

[NotSparta]

Dvorak intensity estimates are falling like a rock, I could see Hector being lowered to ~100 KT at the next advisory even if 12z BEST track is at 110 KT.

Yeah must be the eye getting obscured, wonder what the cause is though

[euro6208]

18z is out
10E HECTOR 180806 1800 15.1N 142.4W EPAC 120 934

Shades of JTWC

God help us when Hector crosses the International Dateline

Hoping it doesn't crossover, You have 2 RSMC's using 1 min and Japan uses 10 min.

AND

JTWC too reliant and way behind dvorak. It will be huge underestimated.

Save us from the headaches.

[Eric Webb]

Dvorak intensity estimates are falling like a rock, I could see Hector being lowered to ~100 KT at the next advisory even if 12z BEST track is at 110 KT.

Yeah must be the eye getting obscured, wonder what the cause is though

Could be a combination of factors, one of them probably being the accelerating trade wind flow out in front of it as it nears the longitude of the big island, we knew today was gonna be the hardest day for the forseeable future for Hector, he'll begin to turn the corner by tomorrow as he gets away from the big island, into warmer SSTs, and RHs begin to rise somewhat, he could really take off on Friday & Saturday right before the TUTT tries to shear him on Sunday.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hoping it doesn't crossover, You have 2 RSMC's using 1 min and Japan uses 10 min.

AND

JTWC too reliant and way behind dvorak. It will be huge underestimated.

Save us from the headaches.

And yeah, the crossover is inevitable now. We'll get more ACE anyway

[Eric Webb]

The GFS is initializing ~ 20 KT of mid-upper level westerly shear, this explains why Hector has lots its annular structure and the circulation seems a little asymmetrical within its larger convective envelope, definitely doesn't help when there's 15-20 KT of low-mid level westerly steering flow.

[Eric Webb]

I had to do a double take but the CPHC is keeping Hector at 110 KT this advisory. This storm is arguably a category 2 hurricane atm.

HURRICANE HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102018
500 am HST Wed Aug 08 2018

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 153.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018
500 AM HST Wed Aug 08 2018

Hurricane Hector has been showing some signs of weakening overnight.
The eye is somewhat less distinct in infrared satellite imagery
early this morning, but it appears that Hector remains a powerful
system based on data provided by a reconnaissance aircraft from the
U.S. Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron. The
extensive sampling of the cyclone during this mission indicated
surface winds were up to 108 kt. In addition, they sampled
flight-level winds up to 135 kt at 1037z during their final pass
through Hector. All of the satellite fix agencies (PHFO, JTWC, and
SAB) showed current subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of 6.0/115
kt. The latest CIMSS ADT estimate is 5.0/102 kt. For this advisory
we will use a blend of these intensity estimates, and maintain
Hector at 110 kt. Hector continues to move due west, or 270/14 kt.

Only minor adjustments to the forecast track have been made. Hector
will continue to move westward along the southern periphery of a
strong subtropical ridge to the north of the main Hawaiian Island
chain through Thursday night. Starting around day 3, Hector is
expected to begin gradually gaining latitude as it passes around the
southwestern edge of this ridge, and is under increasing influence
from an upper-level trough to the west of longitude 170W. This
motion will likely persist through days 4 and 5.

Hector remains in a relatively low shear environment, but it is
moving across marginally warm sea surface temperatures. This is
expected to cause a gradual weakening trend during the next day or
so. Afterward, Hector is expected to change little in intensity
through day 3. The official forecast continues to show a weakening
trend for days 4 and 5 as it starts to gain latitude and it moves
over slightly cooler water temperatures. The latest intensity
forecast closely follows the ICON guidance, which shows Hector
remaining stronger than the SHIPS guidance indicates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 16.4N 153.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.5N 156.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 16.6N 159.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 16.8N 162.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 17.1N 165.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 18.3N 170.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 20.5N 175.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 23.0N 179.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1027213318983962624

[Eric Webb]

Hector was too weak on this GFS run to get tugged out to sea at day 10-11 so it slipped under the ridge east of Japan and hung around several more days racking up more ACE. This is certainly a plausible scenario if Hector goes to crap the next several days before reaching the dateline.

[Eric Webb]

Wow I'm really surprised by what HHs just found in Hector, there were several unflagged SFMR readings at 117 KT in the NW quad. He's still a category 4 hurricane.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Dvorak intensity estimates are falling like a rock, I could see Hector being lowered to ~100 KT at the next advisory even if 12z BEST track is at 110 KT.

Yeah must be the eye getting obscured, wonder what the cause is though

Could be a combination of factors, one of them probably being the accelerating trade wind flow out in front of it as it nears the longitude of the big island, we knew today was gonna be the hardest day for the forseeable future for Hector, he'll begin to turn the corner by tomorrow as he gets away from the big island, into warmer SSTs, and RHs begin to rise somewhat, he could really take off on Friday & Saturday right before the TUTT tries to shear him on Sunday.

"Turn the corner..." you make me want to write a "Guide to Tropical Cyclone Diseases and Health Problems, and their Treatment" as a joke. Though given I don't know nearly as much about hurricane physics, most of the humor will probably come from ridiculous comparisons to those guides about treating sick tropical fish.

[Cunxi Huang]

192500 1631N 15459W 6966 02792 9615 +123 +094 054076 089 117 017 00

117 kt SFMR unflagged. Hmmmm...

[Kingarabian]

Wow I'm really surprised by what HHs just found in Hector, there were several unflagged SFMR readings at 117 KT in the NW quad. He's still a category 4 hurricane.

Considerably higher than what ADT has which is T5.0, 90kts... Recon is irreplaceable

[Cunxi Huang]

WTPA41 PHFO 082102
TCDCP1

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 08 2018

Hector's satellite presentation has fluctuated since the previous
advisory, with the eye briefly becoming indiscernible in
traditional infrared imagery before appearing again. The U.S. Air
Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron has been
penetrating Hector's core this morning, and found some decrease in
observed winds (with maximum flight level winds of 106 kt), while
the surface pressure changed little since last night. Based on a
combination of the aircraft data and subjective and objective
satellite-based intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this
advisory is set at 100 kt, with Hector maintaining major hurricane
status.

The initial motion for this advisory is 270/14 kt, with Hector
tracking due west to the south of a mid-level ridge centered to the
distant north. The ridge will move little through Thursday, and the
high-confidence short-term track forecast keeps Hector moving
steadily west well to the south of the main Hawaiian islands.
Given the reduced wind threat to the Big Island, the Tropical Storm
Warning has been discontinued for Hawaii County. Hector is expected
to gradually gain latitude after 48 hours as it reaches the
southwestern periphery of the ridge, with a more decided turn
toward the northwest expected after 72 hours. The official track
forecast lies close to the previous forecast and a tightly-packed
guidance envelope through day 3. On days 4 and 5, the official
forecast has been shifted to the right of the previous, close to
FSSE and TVCN, which are indicating a sharper poleward turn as a
low aloft develops to the northwest of Hector.

Radar and microwave data indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle
may be underway, with a secondary eyewall noted in a 1707 UTC SSMI
image. If this occurs, some weakening and changes to the wind
field may occur in the short-term as the inner eye wall collapses.
However, the overall environment in which Hector is embedded will
remain conducive for the maintenance of a strong hurricane as
shear will be light and SSTs sufficiently warm through Friday.
Therefore, the intensity forecast indicates little change through
36 hours, with some weakening in the longer range as southwesterly
shear potentially increases.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 16.5N 155.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.6N 157.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 16.7N 160.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 17.0N 163.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 17.5N 165.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 19.5N 171.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 22.6N 176.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 25.0N 180.0E 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

EPAC -> CPAC -> WPAC.

[talkon]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 16.5N 155.3W 100 KT 115 MPH

What is the purpose of having recon if you end up following Dvorak anyway ...

[Ntxw]

About ~32 units. Another ~10-11 units or so with that forecast and that gets to the IDL

[JaxGator]

Hector has been an amazing hurricane to track and thank goodness it won't directly hit Hawaii besides swells. Thank goodness for Recon for this one. Don't know how, but Hawaii has been really lucky. Good news for them and all, though I'm hoping there isn't any complacency in the future or at all. Radar has been showing rainbands impacting the Big Island for the last few hours bringing some rain (though the TS warning has been canceled). One other thing that's been amazing is how Hector has been plowing through the huge area of dry air to its west and the core was relatively intact and protected from any intrusion (most of the time). At least for a hurricane on that scale. Looking forward to seeing what Hector does as it crosses the rest of the Central Pacific into the West Pac.

[Chris90]

Microwave imagery indicates Hector has put together a much larger eye than any he's had so far. Should look spectacular on satellite once he manages to clear it. If he can continue to maintain a similar structure, especially one that includes a large, stable eye, then he could definitely intensify again and put on another show when he approaches those warmer SSTs near the dateline. Would be fitting. Put on a show when he crossed from the EPAC to the CPAC, so why not do it again when crossing into the WPAC?
He sure knows how to make an entrance.