2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 338.5 - NIO - 29.1
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 14.4 - EPAC - 37.0 - WPAC - 77.6 - NIO - 11.5
EPAC should get out of the July funk and August looks like a very productive month for this basin as more systems will follow Hector in the next couple of weeks. Hector will get a lot of ACE as it looks like a bonifide long-tracker that will cross to CPAC. (ACE counts for EPAC)
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 14.4 - EPAC - 37.0 - WPAC - 77.6 - NIO - 11.5
cycloneye wrote:EPAC should get out of the July funk and August looks like a very productive month for this basin as more systems will follow Hector in the next couple of weeks. Hector will get a lot of ACE as it looks like a bonifide long-tracker that will cross to CPAC. (ACE counts for EPAC)
If Hector takes the more southern route like the ECMWF, he could possibly overtake Maria with ACE from earlier in the season (WPAC).
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 14.4 - EPAC - 37.0 - WPAC - 77.6 - NIO - 11.5
Ntxw wrote:cycloneye wrote:EPAC should get out of the July funk and August looks like a very productive month for this basin as more systems will follow Hector in the next couple of weeks. Hector will get a lot of ACE as it looks like a bonifide long-tracker that will cross to CPAC. (ACE counts for EPAC)
If Hector takes the more southern route like the ECMWF, he could possibly overtake Maria with ACE from earlier in the season (WPAC).
35.8 is the number Hector has to surpass.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 14.4 - EPAC - 39.3 - WPAC - 77.6 - NIO - 11.5
Based on what we're seeing currently, I expect 2006 to be our best analog for the Northern Hemisphere. Western and Eastern Pacific above average with a powerful, long-lived hurricane/typhoon that could cross three basins. The North Atlantic may be below normal, but not by a long stretch.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 14.4 - EPAC - 40.2 - WPAC - 77.6 - NIO - 11.5
Ntxw wrote:cycloneye wrote:EPAC should get out of the July funk and August looks like a very productive month for this basin as more systems will follow Hector in the next couple of weeks. Hector will get a lot of ACE as it looks like a bonifide long-tracker that will cross to CPAC. (ACE counts for EPAC)
If Hector takes the more southern route like the ECMWF, he could possibly overtake Maria with ACE from earlier in the season (WPAC).
It has turned into a close call because models have shifted a little bit north but there is plenty of time to see what occurs.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 14.4 - EPAC - 40.2 - WPAC - 77.6 - NIO - 11.5
cycloneye wrote:Ntxw wrote:cycloneye wrote:EPAC should get out of the July funk and August looks like a very productive month for this basin as more systems will follow Hector in the next couple of weeks. Hector will get a lot of ACE as it looks like a bonifide long-tracker that will cross to CPAC. (ACE counts for EPAC)
If Hector takes the more southern route like the ECMWF, he could possibly overtake Maria with ACE from earlier in the season (WPAC).
35.8 is the number Hector has to surpass.
As of this post Hector has 3.5 units so a looong way to go.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 14.4 - EPAC - 42.3 - WPAC - 78.2 - NIO - 11.5
By my tally, the WPac will cross 80 units at 00Z.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 14.4 - EPAC - 44.4 - WPAC - 78.9 - NIO - 11.5
A parade of monsters. Heaps of ACE.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 14.4 - EPAC - 55.6 - WPAC - 83.7- NIO - 11.5
Thanks to Shanshan, the WPAC leading the yearly average.
83.7 ... 79.6
83.7 ... 79.6
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 14.4 - EPAC - 55.6 - WPAC - 83.7- NIO - 11.5
euro6208 wrote:Thanks to Shanshan, the WPAC leading the yearly average.
83.7 ... 79.6
Hector is expected to rack up at least 30-40 units of ACE after crossing the IDL. That's just a fraction of the expected >65-80 total. It's now stronger than forecast and imagine it entering the more favorable West Pacific waters. This could likely track further west and south than what the models predict. Ridging seems stronger now and it could even lose some latitude like Ioke.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 15.9 - EPAC - 85.3 - WPAC - 91.5 - NIO - 11.5
EPac (92.405) is back to within two units of the WPac (93.935). I wouldn't be surprised to see a lead change for a little bit.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 15.9 - EPAC - 92.4 - WPAC - 92.2 - NIO - 11.5
EPac=92.4 / WPac=92.2 per CSU so 1900hurricane, you are not far.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 15.9 - EPAC - 92.4 - WPAC - 92.2 - NIO - 11.5
weathermodels.com (Ryan Maue) is up to 94.36 for CPAC/EPAC. WPAC @ 96.295
https://lab.weathermodels.com/tropical/
https://lab.weathermodels.com/tropical/
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 15.9 - EPAC - 92.4 - WPAC - 92.2 - NIO - 11.5
They have different ways to do the best track thing.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 15.9 - EPAC - 100.3 - WPAC - 95.8 - NIO - 11.5
EPac surpassed 100 units as Hector was the cause for the fast uptick.Hector is almost at 50 ACE units with 49.2 per CSU.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 17.5 - EPAC - 108.2 - WPAC - 108.8 - NIO - 11.5
The battle between EPac and WPac for dominance in 2018 rages on. As of 15:00 UTC EPac has 108.8 ACE units while WPac has 108.2 units.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 17.5 - EPAC - 108.2 - WPAC - 108.8 - NIO - 11.5
cycloneye wrote:The battle between EPac and WPac for dominance in 2018 rages on. As of 15:00 UTC EPac has 108.8 ACE units while WPac has 108.2 units.
EPAC and WPAC are close, but in the end the WPAC will probably win out as it usually does. It is difficult for the EPAC to maintain the lead on its sister basin sharing the same Ocean. The mechanics that makes one basin active also includes the other. The modoki like structure of ENSO will keep the WPAC active. Another 160-200 EPAC season though might not be too difficult to do.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 17.5 - EPAC - 111.0 - WPAC - 111.1 - NIO - 11.5
What a display of energy by both basins.Almost tied as of 03:00z.
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2018 ACE: NATL - 17.5 - EPAC - 114.5 - WPAC - 114.6 - NIO - 11.5
Ntxw wrote:cycloneye wrote:The battle between EPac and WPac for dominance in 2018 rages on. As of 15:00 UTC EPac has 108.8 ACE units while WPac has 108.2 units.
EPAC and WPAC are close, but in the end the WPAC will probably win out as it usually does. It is difficult for the EPAC to maintain the lead on its sister basin sharing the same Ocean. The mechanics that makes one basin active also includes the other. The modoki like structure of ENSO will keep the WPAC active. Another 160-200 EPAC season though might not be too difficult to do.
Agreed that WPac will be #1 on ACE when 2018 closes but EPac will end with a great number as it should produce some more strong activity.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 17.5 - EPAC - 135.0 - WPAC - 134.8 - NIO - 11.5
Both the Western and Eastern Pacific basins have been raking up a lot of ACE with Soulik, Cimaron and Lane. While the WPac is approaching last year's total ACE (now above-average YTD), the EPac is set to cross the above-normal threshold. (at least 135 ACE and two or more of the ff are attained: 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes) It's still halfway through August. With the two powerful and long-tracking hurricanes Lane and Hector accumulating (or set to) at least 40 units, this is a repeat of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season but in another ocean.
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