2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[SoupBone]

Current shear.

[gulf701]

The way this is season is unfolding, it should be a good test for model upgrades and all phases of tropical forecasting.

[Hammy]

GFS back to showing no hints of development whatsoever, which is a bit baffling (and somewhat frustrating inconsistency.) CMC and parallel GFS show multiple systems within 240 hours. It's not even maintaining the tropical wave to the Caribbean or even beyond a day or two (the same wave it had trying to develop over Florida in the 18z run) which even the Euro had at least some degree of consistency with earlier, albeit slightly weaker--it's simply not there at all on the latest GFS run.

Either the GFS is going to end up beating all the models with a much quieter season than anyone could've forecast, or it's going to prove absurdly useless this season.

[AubreyStorm]

GFS back to showing no hints of development whatsoever, which is a bit baffling (and somewhat frustrating inconsistency.) CMC and parallel GFS show multiple systems within 240 hours. It's not even maintaining the tropical wave to the Caribbean or even beyond a day or two (the same wave it had trying to develop over Florida in the 18z run) which even the Euro had at least some degree of consistency with earlier, albeit slightly weaker--it's simply not there at all on the latest GFS run.

Either the GFS is going to end up beating all the models with a much quieter season than anyone could've forecast, or it's going to prove absurdly useless this season.

NHC very patient!

[AutoPenalti]

Maybe CFS is showing less favorable conditions than forecasted by mid-September?

[Hammy]

Maybe CFS is showing less favorable conditions than forecasted by mid-September?

I'm starting to think something weird is going on with the models themselves at this point. Furthering this is that the GFS and CMC are showing nearly identical solutions in the Bahamas and Florida at the end of their respective runs, which are six days apart and involving different waves.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS show a wave coming off of Africa in 5 days and develops in the Bahamas in 14 days. If I were going to guess it might develop before that due to better moisture heading into the Atlantic

[toad strangler]

0z Euro shows a wave getting into the Bahamas at 240

[wxGuy]

This is now the 4th day I'm waking up seeing a wave making it into the Bahamas and dancing its way into the GOM
good morning

[cycloneye]

0z Euro shows a wave getting into the Bahamas at 240

That is the wave being discussed in this thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119772

[wxGuy]

Imo the wave becomes disorganized through Bahamas and reorganizes in GOM, I have a feeling the models aren't picking something up, but once the wave makes it into the Gulf it can form into a CAT 3-4 no doubt

[NDG]

@RaleighWX
The models are showing increased tropical activity as we head into September. This the day 15 ecmwf ensemble storm tracks from its ensemble envelope. Notice plenty of activity in the Atlantic. We shall see if it comes to fruition. Image courtesy of http://weathermodels.com

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1032961569192337408

[chris_fit]

00Z CMC Model - Just for fun....

[AnnularCane]

The 0zGFS show a wave coming off of Africa in 5 days and develops in the Bahamas in 14 days. If I were going to guess it might develop before that due to better moisture heading into the Atlantic

So what they're showing is NOT the current yellow X but something else?

[cycloneye]

12z GFS from day 12 thru day 16.

[jfk08c]

12z GFS from day 12 thru day 16.

Looks like the Bermuda High almost disappears during that run. Should allow the system to recurve OTS if it does actually form

[ronjon]

12z Canadian has two cyclones in 10 days.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018082412&fh=222

[floridasun78]

00Z CMC Model - Just for fun....

better be fun if not i going kick cmc were hurt i live miami dont see 2018 again

[CyclonicFury]

12z Euro has MDR development starting at 216 hours.

[cycloneye]

I think is the first time in 2018 that ECMWF has something this strong near Cabo Verde Islands on days 9-10. You also can see a sharp windshift around 50W.