CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

FV3 is amiss because it initialized as a 992mb TS

Seems the initialization is what is determining hit or miss now

Been like that for a while now.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it’s weakening gradually as per latest EIR frames. Doesn’t look like a major to me now.

Based on microwave, it looks pretty steady to me.

WIndsat pass from 1 hour ago:


Pretty similar to the older AMSR2 pass from 6-7 hours ago:

[Stratosphere747]

HWRF showing 50 inches for parts of Maui

So what's your forecast?

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro initialized:


Initialized off, but could've been worse.

[Alyono]

HWRF showing 50 inches for parts of Maui

So what's your forecast?

while I cannot give my specific forecast here, I can say that destructive flooding is nearly a certainty

[Alyono]

ec nearly due west, LOL

However, it is for the right reason, this is barely a TS by tonight

[Kingarabian]

Euro pretty much decouples this within the next 24 hours and sends practically due west:

[galaxy401]

So I guess we can just discard that run then...and of course this happens when an area is under a heavy threat...

[Kingarabian]

What's the likelihood this goes from a Cat2/3 to a TS in the next 12 hours

[Kingarabian]

So I guess we can just discard that run then...and of course this happens when an area is under a heavy threat...

It's sad really.

[Kingarabian]

CPHC keep this a strong Cat.3.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
800 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 157.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

[Kingarabian]

It's own champion is saying to pretty much disregard the 00z Euro

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1032870655530819586

[Kingarabian]

Fresh GMI pass shows the eye although weak to the south but remains well intact:




The 30-35kts of shear pretty much stays the same until it reaches the islands. Evidenced by the repeatedly solid microwave passes we've had for the past 12-18 hours, this amount of shear is currently unable to get the job done and significantly weaken Lane. Interpolating these observed factors towards Lane's forecast, the islands remain under a heavy threat until true weakening is happens.

[Mauistorms]

Heavy rain squalls and gusty wind now in upcountry Maui

[galaxy401]

Heavy rain squalls and gusty wind now in upcountry Maui

Stay strong out there. Going to be a long day for you tomorrow...

[Aric Dunn]

The core on radar is still very well intact.. the upper outflow to the south and SW is expanding more than it should.. definitely, some mid level shear but Lane appears to be holding its own.. just very slow weakening..

very interesting.

[Aric Dunn]

when did that vort/blob get classified as a invest? has it been one for awhile?

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... &TYPE=ssmi

[Kingarabian]

Heavy rain squalls and gusty wind now in upcountry Maui

Thank you for the updates. If you want to, download the MPING app, and you can upload the conditions in your area anonymously to scientists to help improve their data and their ability to assist the public.

[Kingarabian]

when did that vort/blob get classified as a invest? has it been one for awhile?

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... &TYPE=ssmi

Yes lol I made a thread for it. It's likely a TD or TS now.

[Kingarabian]

You do a great job here.. don't let one poster get to you.. The Euro is clearly having a bad run here.. Hoping for the best for people in Hawaii!!

Copy this. We truly appreciate having you here. You bring a different taste to meteorology and taught us a lot on here.