2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[wxGuy]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Operational GFS is the only model right now not showing an active early-September. 18z FV3 GFS, on the flip side, has a major hurricane by day 10. ECMWF also looking quite active.

[mlfreeman]

The 18z FV3-GFS and a number of the GFS ensembles seem to agree on that major hurricane (recurving thankfully).
The 18z operational GFS even seems to think something will go through the same basic path, just absurdly weak.

[Steve]

^^^^

Sorry. I overwrote my post. Essentially NAM 12km shows a consolidation in the NW Gulf as it slowly moves a spinning system with energy at the surface toward the Texas Coast. Here is the 850mb

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82800&fh=6

[cycloneye]

^^^^

Sorry. I overwrote my post. Essentially NAM 12km shows a consolidation in the NW Gulf as it slowly moves a spinning system with energy at the surface toward the Texas Coast. Here is the 850mb

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82800&fh=6

I moved your posts to the Wave thread. viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119772&p=2694476#p2694476

[Steve]

Hey cycloneye, I mentioned in that other thread that I don’t think what NAM is showing for Texas this weekend is the wave approaching the islands. I think it’s developing from a feature further west. Do you agree?

[AJC3]

Hey cycloneye, I mentioned in that other thread that I don’t think what NAM is showing for Texas this weekend is the wave approaching the islands. I think it’s developing from a feature further west. Do you agree?

Interesting...the NAM is developing an area of vorticity that currently extends
southward from Cuba into the central Caribbean, roughly along 77W.

However, that doesn't jibe with the T-wave analysis in the latest TWD...

A tropical wave axis in the eastern Caribbean is along 64W from
05N-20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted by
model guidance and surface observations. Scattered showers are
noted south of 10N affecting Venezuela.

A tropical wave axis in the western Caribbean is south of 20N
along 85W, moving west at 15 kt. Upper-level cyclonic flow west
of 77W is enhancing convection in this area. Scattered moderate
convection prevails south of 14N between 79W-86W affecting
Central America and adjacent waters.

Regardless, it's deffo not related to any wave currently approaching the LA as I type.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro shows 4 systems at the 240 hour mark.

[Hammy]

What is going on with the GFS bringing low centers off almost at Morocco's latitude?

[gatorcane]

The lid has come off on today’s Euro:

[otowntiger]

The lid has come off on today’s Euro:

Yeah, sure has. That train of Cape Verde storms looks to be all re-curvers with that set up. Looks like the Bermuda high regresses nicely just in time, at least according to this model.

[Kazmit]

The lid has come off on today’s Euro:

Yeah, sure has. That train of Cape Verde storms looks to be all re-curvers with that set up. Looks like the Bermuda high regresses nicely just in time, at least according to this model.

Looks like a lot of eastern swell for me. Might have to dust off the board.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The lid has come off on today’s Euro:

Yeah, sure has. That train of Cape Verde storms looks to be all re-curvers with that set up. Looks like the Bermuda high regresses nicely just in time, at least according to this model.

The thing that bothers me with that kind of setup is that one of those usually is able to sneak under and head west

[Hammy]

This would be interesting to see should it play out--Georges, Ivan, and Jeanne in 1998 may have been the last time we had three back to back active Cabo Verde systems at once.

[SoupBone]

This would be interesting to see should it play out--Georges, Ivan, and Jeanne in 1998 may have been the last time we had three back to back active Cabo Verde systems at once.

Cue @Ivanhater.

[jlauderdal]

The lid has come off on today’s Euro:

Yeah, sure has. That train of Cape Verde storms looks to be all re-curvers with that set up. Looks like the Bermuda high regresses nicely just in time, at least according to this model.

The thing that bothers me with that kind of setup is that one of those usually is able to sneak under and head west

if that modeling is close to correct than nothing is sneaking under that weakness

[Steve]

This would be interesting to see should it play out--Georges, Ivan, and Jeanne in 1998 may have been the last time we had three back to back active Cabo Verde systems at once.

Cue @Ivanhater.

He’s 2004 Ivan

[otowntiger]

Yeah, sure has. That train of Cape Verde storms looks to be all re-curvers with that set up. Looks like the Bermuda high regresses nicely just in time, at least according to this model.

The thing that bothers me with that kind of setup is that one of those usually is able to sneak under and head west

if that modeling is close to correct than nothing is sneaking under that weakness

Agreed- that is like the parting of the Red Sea type of massive opening. That’s a fish train if I’ve ever seen one, lol!

[blp]

The lid has come off on today’s Euro:

Wow Gator can't remember the last time I saw a Euro run with so much development. Those are also not all automatic recurves as some suggest.

[chaser1]

Is it just me or is the GFS run data seemingly taking a good deal longer to update??