Strong Tropical Wave emerging from West Africa (Is INVEST 90L)

[Hurricaneman]

My personal feeling about this wave is that it will be the first major of the year

[galaxy401]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
late Thursday or early Friday, with an area of low pressure likely
to form between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.
Development of this system is possible over the weekend while it
moves west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Development could be limited early next week when the system reaches
cooler waters west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[GCANE]

PV Shredder is gone and goes deep headed to the North Pole.
Next wave is the one to watch.
Possible Carib Cruiser

[tolakram]

This comes close to the Cabo Verde islands but after that looks like a nice slow ACE builder. Hopefully it stays that way.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area is forecast to form between the coast of Africa
and the Cabo Verde Islands in association with a tropical wave that
is expected to move off the west coast of Africa late Thursday or
early Friday. Additional development is anticipated, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend while the system moves
west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands. Interests in those
islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[GCANE]

Strong convection and LL vort over the water just north of 10N
Wondering if this may decouple.
That is, surface low spins up to the north and goes fish while the wave, to the south, moves low thru the MDR along 10 to 15N.

[tropicwatch]

Will they wait till it is offshore to make it an invest?

[plasticup]

Models are really bullish on this one, and a strong ridge could keep this riding low from Cape Verde right into the Leeward Islands. The first scary wave of the season.

[CyclonicFury]

Most likely this recurves out to sea given its current predicted track, but it is too soon to rule out anything since it has not even exited Africa yet. Based on the recent GFS and ECMWF, this has potential to be a long track hurricane that racks up quite a bit of ACE.

[TheStormExpert]

Definite

[plasticup]

Most likely this recurves out to sea given its current predicted track

Shout out to Bermuda, the bit of land that gets hit every time an Atlantic storm recurves "out to sea"!

[chaser1]

Definite

How in the world can you say "definite fish" prior to even seeing a clear MLC or the overall dynamics and structure of what could be a broader gyre to move over water? I'd say the possibilities broadly range from zero development, to slow development (thus further west wave progression), to fairly quick and higher latitude development and potential WNW motion as indicated in the TWO. Another reasonable evolution might be what GCANE suggests (above), of a possible duel genesis hypothesis which is a potentially reasonable outcome as well (above).

[plasticup]

Definite

You are counting on a strong ridge at 120 hours. The models are not unanimous on this, and at 120 hours there is huge variability anyway. If it misses the 4-5 day trough then it's likely a long-tracker into the Caribbean. A Cat 2 into the Leeward Islands is a very possibility.

[chris_fit]

Definite

You are counting on a strong ridge at 120 hours. The models are not unanimous on this, and at 120 hours there is huge variability anyway. If it misses the 4-5 day trough then it's likely a long-tracker into the Caribbean. A Cat 2 into the Leeward Islands is a very possibility.

While 'never say never' this is high unlikely - zero guidance suggests any type of threat those islands right now.

[Kazmit]

Most likely this recurves out to sea given its current predicted track

Shout out to Bermuda, the bit of land that gets hit every time an Atlantic storm recurves "out to sea"!

The truth! We always seem to get hit.

[Nimbus]

I didn't expect Avila to post till the thread was locked?

[plasticup]

Definite

You are counting on a strong ridge at 120 hours. The models are not unanimous on this, and at 120 hours there is huge variability anyway. If it misses the 4-5 day trough then it's likely a long-tracker into the Caribbean. A Cat 2 into the Leeward Islands is a very possibility.

While 'never say never' this is high unlikely - zero guidance suggests any type of threat those islands right now.

06z GFS shows it developing, starting to recurve, then stalling in front of a strong ridge for 2 days. Eventually a trough comes through to pick it up, but it wouldn't be a big shift for this system to miss that trough (weaker trough, stronger ridge, or just a weaker system) and continue west.

We are talking 240+ hours out, so a small change like that is entirely possible.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is stronger than past runs. Goes to major cane.

[plasticup]

12z GFS is stronger than past runs. Goes to major cane.

And a much stronger ridge. Doesn't look to be recuriving out to 150 hours. I can't see the model past there yet.

[gatorcane]

At 192 hours, there is much more ridging over the Northern Atlantic but at that position and strength eventually it should recurve on this run. Question is whether this is the start of a trend?