2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[plasticup]

That one storm moving off Africa in the long range Euro is moving directly west. That could be the one to watch.

The one in front of it we’ll have to watch as well.

Model consensus has that one (now 90L) recurving before 50W, but that's 200+ hours out and as we all know it wouldn't take much for it to miss the trough and keep trucking west.

[Shell Mound]

That one storm moving off Africa in the long range Euro is moving directly west. That could be the one to watch.

The one in front of it we’ll have to watch as well.

Model consensus has that one (now 90L) recurving before 50W, but that's 200+ hours out and as we all know it wouldn't take much for it to miss the trough and keep trucking west.

For what it's worth, the 00Z EPS ensemble mean shows a threatening westward trend with the two systems projected to follow in 90L's wake:

[CourierPR]

The one in front of it we’ll have to watch as well.

Model consensus has that one (now 90L) recurving before 50W, but that's 200+ hours out and as we all know it wouldn't take much for it to miss the trough and keep trucking west.

For what it's worth, the 00Z EPS ensemble mean shows a threatening westward trend with the two systems projected to follow in 90L's wa

Met. Joe Bastardi pointed that out yesterday by saying it resembles the pattern that produced Andrew in '92.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has the same system Euro has been showing on days 7-10 emerging Africa but after a brief development it fades.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has the same system Euro has been showing on days 7-10 emerging Africa but after a brief development it fades.

Here it is.

[cycloneye]

This one will be the one to watch.12z Euro.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Interesting setup on the 12z ECMWF for the system behind soon-to-be Florence: ridge builds in to the north, preventing an early recurve and extends to nearly 60W. This is a west-trucker.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Interesting setup on the 12z ECMWF for the system behind soon-to-be Florence: ridge builds in to the north, preventing an early recurve and extends to nearly 60W. This is a west-trucker.

The end of that run is the biggest cliffhanger i’ve seen since irma.

[1900hurricane]

Interesting setup on the 12z ECMWF for the system behind soon-to-be Florence: ridge builds in to the north, preventing an early recurve and extends to nearly 60W. This is a west-trucker.

Yeah, the ridge setup on the past couple of ECMWF runs actually reminds me somewhat of Hector's steering setup. It's also interesting that it is depicted already as a tropical storm just prior to exiting the coast.

[gatorcane]

This one will be the one to watch.12z Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/Iokld2L.gif

FV3 GFS takes this west into the Lesser Antilles in the super long range:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Interesting setup on the 12z ECMWF for the system behind soon-to-be Florence: ridge builds in to the north, preventing an early recurve and extends to nearly 60W. This is a west-trucker.

Yeah, the ridge setup on the past couple of ECMWF runs actually reminds me somewhat of Hector's steering setup. It's also interesting that it is depicted already as a tropical storm just prior to exiting the coast.

And also, unlike the potential GOMEX system, the ECMWF has been showing this storm for days and at a consistent strength.

[Gustywind]

This one will be the one to watch.12z Euro.

FV3 GFS takes this west into the Lesser Antilles in the super long range:

. Hopefully it's pure fantasy projection at long range

[mlfreeman]

General model question: what's with the 18z GFS ensembles?
Is the vast swath of orange over Africa a sign that all heck is about to break loose?

[NotSparta]

General model question: what's with the 18z GFS ensembles?
Is the vast swath of orange over Africa a sign that all heck is about to break loose?

[img]https://i.imgur.com/vKIScsw.png[/mg]

I'm pretty sure the color scale is a function of anomalous pressure, & the expansive orange just reflects anomalously low pressures

[wxGuy]

developing nicely on fv3 heading wnw

[gatorcane]

The two-week GFS run continues to show a pretty stubborn “ridge over troubled waters” over the Western Atlantic and East coast of US with only slight variations in strength. Need to watch if one of these systems like the FV3 GFS is showing gets underneath this ridge. Usually we have the semi-permanent east coast trough from now through peak of season.

At 240 hours we see that ridge and once future Florence moves out the model bridges that ridge with the Azores High over the Eastern Atlantic which means some west runners are possible.

[Nimbus]

We get a TUTT for at least the first CV storm which is nice.
After the first week in September how good will the models be with the Bermuda ridging?

[cycloneye]

Here in PR,we dont want to experience another Maria for a second year in a row or even less strong like TS Jeanne in 2004 as this territory went thru with the many fatalities (2,975) and lack of the power grid etc.But the good thing about this run is that is FV3 so al least is not the actual global models as they are doing tests of this model.But if the old GFS and Euro have it then all bets are off.We will see what occurs next week.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The FV3-GFS run is very similar to the 12z ECMWF through 240 hours; ridge over the EATL preventing an early recurve for the wave behind 06L.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like its going to struggle a bit after reaching the Caribbean.