ATL: GORDON - Models

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ATL: GORDON - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:07 am

Models only.
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Re: ATL: 91L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:18 am

SHIP up to Hurricane in first run.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:49 am

0Z Euro
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6Z GFS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#4 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:35 am

SHIPS basically shows that when it gets in GOM not much problem with shear, will work in a very rich moist environment and near 30C SSTs

Code: Select all

 * ATLANTIC     2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL912018  09/02/18  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    23    25    28    35    44    57    60    64    65    66    65
V (KT) LAND       20    21    23    25    28    35    44    57    42    32    28    27    27
V (KT) LGEM       20    21    21    23    25    29    35    43    36    29    28    27    27
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        13     8    12    12     7     7     8    10    18    15    14    11    12
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -6    -5    -4    -7    -6    -4    -2    -2    -3    -1    -2    -5    -2
SHEAR DIR        305   266   261   279   303   265   310   291   307   310   351   328   341
SST (C)         29.2  29.2  29.5  29.8  30.0  30.2  30.2  29.8  29.4  27.7  26.8  25.9  24.9
POT. INT. (KT)   155   155   161   167   171   173   173   167   159   132   120   111   103
ADJ. POT. INT.   144   144   150   156   159   164   162   150   136   110    98    92    87
200 MB T (C)   -55.6 -55.5 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -54.8 -54.9 -53.9 -54.5 -54.2 -55.0 -54.7 -55.4
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.3  -0.4  -0.3  -0.4  -0.5  -0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0  -0.1  -0.1  -0.4  -0.5
TH_E DEV (C)      10    11    11    11    11    12    11    11     7    10     4     7     0
700-500 MB RH     62    62    63    60    62    63    62    62    59    61    65    70    74
MODEL VTX (KT)     4     5     6     6     7     8     9    11     9     9     8     7     6
850 MB ENV VOR   -28   -22   -21   -35   -33   -21   -57   -57   -90   -39   -18    -2     1
200 MB DIV        11    15     2    -6    13    14    -4    20    13     6    -8    35    15
700-850 TADV       0    -1    -5     2     4    -2     6    14     6    11     4     6     3
LAND (KM)         89   105    94   120   129    96   250   112  -123  -300  -434  -558  -713
LAT (DEG N)     21.8  22.3  22.8  23.4  24.1  25.6  27.4  29.4  31.5  33.1  34.3  35.4  36.8
LONG(DEG W)     75.5  76.5  77.6  78.8  80.0  82.6  85.3  87.7  89.2  90.0  90.4  90.7  90.7
STM SPEED (KT)    11    11    12    13    13    15    15    14    11     7     5     6     8
HEAT CONTENT      43    49    58    48    41    32    34    22     7     7     7     7     7
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#5 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:42 am

Now the GFS is stronger with 91L, per the latest 06z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#6 Postby ronjon » Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:43 am

NDG wrote:SHIPS basically shows that when it gets in GOM not much problem with shear, will work in a very rich moist environment and near 30C SSTs

Code: Select all

 * ATLANTIC     2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL912018  09/02/18  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    23    25    28    35    44    57    60    64    65    66    65
V (KT) LAND       20    21    23    25    28    35    44    57    42    32    28    27    27
V (KT) LGEM       20    21    21    23    25    29    35    43    36    29    28    27    27
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        13     8    12    12     7     7     8    10    18    15    14    11    12
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -6    -5    -4    -7    -6    -4    -2    -2    -3    -1    -2    -5    -2
SHEAR DIR        305   266   261   279   303   265   310   291   307   310   351   328   341
SST (C)         29.2  29.2  29.5  29.8  30.0  30.2  30.2  29.8  29.4  27.7  26.8  25.9  24.9
POT. INT. (KT)   155   155   161   167   171   173   173   167   159   132   120   111   103
ADJ. POT. INT.   144   144   150   156   159   164   162   150   136   110    98    92    87
200 MB T (C)   -55.6 -55.5 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -54.8 -54.9 -53.9 -54.5 -54.2 -55.0 -54.7 -55.4
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.3  -0.4  -0.3  -0.4  -0.5  -0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0  -0.1  -0.1  -0.4  -0.5
TH_E DEV (C)      10    11    11    11    11    12    11    11     7    10     4     7     0
700-500 MB RH     62    62    63    60    62    63    62    62    59    61    65    70    74
MODEL VTX (KT)     4     5     6     6     7     8     9    11     9     9     8     7     6
850 MB ENV VOR   -28   -22   -21   -35   -33   -21   -57   -57   -90   -39   -18    -2     1
200 MB DIV        11    15     2    -6    13    14    -4    20    13     6    -8    35    15
700-850 TADV       0    -1    -5     2     4    -2     6    14     6    11     4     6     3
LAND (KM)         89   105    94   120   129    96   250   112  -123  -300  -434  -558  -713
LAT (DEG N)     21.8  22.3  22.8  23.4  24.1  25.6  27.4  29.4  31.5  33.1  34.3  35.4  36.8
LONG(DEG W)     75.5  76.5  77.6  78.8  80.0  82.6  85.3  87.7  89.2  90.0  90.4  90.7  90.7
STM SPEED (KT)    11    11    12    13    13    15    15    14    11     7     5     6     8
HEAT CONTENT      43    49    58    48    41    32    34    22     7     7     7     7     7


Actually not much shear the next 60 hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#7 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:40 am

Hour 66, Louisiana/Mississippi landfall...or very close to that.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#8 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:52 am

12Z GFS a little weaker

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#9 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:59 am

tolakram wrote:12Z GFS a little weaker



The end of that run takes a similar path to the Euro, taking it toward the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, then south toward Houston, then up and out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#10 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:02 am

SoupBone wrote:
tolakram wrote:12Z GFS a little weaker



The end of that run takes a similar path to the Euro, taking it toward the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, then south toward Houston, then up and out.


It still shoots north quickly. We'll have to see which model has a better handle on the upper air pattern.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#11 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:03 am

SoupBone wrote:
tolakram wrote:12Z GFS a little weaker



The end of that run takes a similar path to the Euro, taking it toward the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, then south toward Houston, then up and out.


It looks like it heads into Missippii and Arkansas fairly quickly to me, doesn't go toward Texas at all. (12Z GFS today)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#12 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:08 am

tolakram wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
tolakram wrote:12Z GFS a little weaker



The end of that run takes a similar path to the Euro, taking it toward the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, then south toward Houston, then up and out.


It still shoots north quickly. We'll have to see which model has a better handle on the upper air pattern.


I've asked this, but do you know what models typically perform better with upper air modeling? Or at least a reference to view the various runs?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#13 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:10 am

SoupBone wrote:
tolakram wrote:
SoupBone wrote:

The end of that run takes a similar path to the Euro, taking it toward the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, then south toward Houston, then up and out.


It still shoots north quickly. We'll have to see which model has a better handle on the upper air pattern.


I've asked this, but do you know what models typically perform better with upper air modeling? Or at least a reference to view the various runs?


Well. Euro usually, remember the GFS sending Harvey to Brownsville run after run. GFS does very well in a higher shear environment though, so .... shrug :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#14 Postby bbadon » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:12 am

Question for the mets: Could the low currently just south of the Tx/La border effect the high schedule to build over SE US? Provided the low lingers a while. I'm not certain I asked the question correctly but I think you get the jest of it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#16 Postby stormlover2013 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:20 pm

Ukmet still a interesting run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#17 Postby mcheer23 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:04 pm

euro weaker through 48hr....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#18 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:06 pm

mcheer23 wrote:euro weaker through 48hr....

Respectfully, do you know why? :?: Current trends and conditions do not seem to support the EC...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#19 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:10 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:euro weaker through 48hr....

Respectfully, do you know why? :?: Current trends and conditions do not seem to support the EC...


On the other thread someone said the Euro probably initialized this too weak and that could be because of the compact size. Doesn’t mean the end result is necessarily wrong but it could certainly have implications on final intensity/landfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#20 Postby mcheer23 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:20 pm

EURO near Shreveport 96 hr
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