ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[USTropics]

UKMET ensembles:

[FLpanhandle91]

Changing my prediction here. Looks like GFS builds back the ridge pretty aggressively around hour 182 and low in the northern interior plains (which is supposed to send Florence to sea) is slower. Could be a OBX landfall this run.

Again, a weaker system will ride the fringes of the ridge pretty far south.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 144-192:



Compared to the previous runs, the recurve still hasn't taken place yet.

[toad strangler]

[galaxy401]

Uhhh when is Florence going to turn there with the UKMET and GFS?

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS trend shows this run is now significantly SW compared to the previous runs

[USTropics]

The first shortwave trough that the GFS has previously been forecasting to turn Florence will not turn the cyclone on this run. However, I think it has significantly slowed the system down so that the next trough heading towards the eastern seaboard should turn it before reaching the EC (we'll see):



I also don't trust the increase in development after day 6 on the GFS (the other models are not showing this now, and the GFS has had a bias so far with Florence for over-strengthening the system in this timeframe).

[chaser1]

.... as my mind flashes back to 1992

[FLpanhandle91]

The first shortwave trough that the GFS has previously been forecasting to turn Florence will not turn the cyclone on this run. However, I think it has significantly slowed the system down so that the next trough heading towards the eastern seaboard should turn it before reaching the EC (we'll see):



I also don't trust the increase in development after day 6 on the GFS (the other models are not showing this now, and the GFS has had a bias so far with Florence for over-strengthening the system).

Doesn't it look like that second trough is a bit behind this run? Really don't see it really Florence before it landfalls. Nice analysis!

[cycloneye]

18z GFS aligns with Euro on approach to Carolinas.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 192-216:



Looks like the recurve finally begins.

[toad strangler]

.... as my mind flashes back to 1992

I mean its almost sacrilege to say but especially with that UKMET look
There, nostalgia out of the way.

[cjrciadt]

.... as my mind flashes back to 1992

Yeah, I did not want to be the 1st poster to make that comparison to current guidance.

[RL3AO]

It'll be close but I think it will just miss OBX. No matter what, the afternoon model runs are a little eye opening for the eastern US. The trend is west right now.

[FLpanhandle91]

Fish this run. Significant shift west though. What the hell is pulling Florence so agressively? It almost moves straight through the ridging.

[toad strangler]

Fish this run. Significant shift west though. What the hell is pulling Florence so agressively? It almost moves straight through the ridging.

Huge shift S & W

[RL3AO]

Fish this run. Significant shift west though. What the hell is pulling Florence so agressively? It almost moves straight through the ridging.

You know people live in Canada right?

[toad strangler]

I love how this time the ridge just steps out of the way as if teasing a bull.

[FLpanhandle91]

Fish this run. Significant shift west though. What the hell is pulling Florence so agressively? It almost moves straight through the ridging.

You know people live in Canada right?

Apologies for the rudeness here.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I love how this time the ridge just steps out of the way as if teasing a bull.

classic gfs