ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Gordon Special Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
830 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and southeast Florida,
along with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate
that the disturbance has developed a closed surface circulation and
a well-defined center. Recent observations from a Weatherflow site
at Carys Fort Reef and radar data support increasing the maximum
winds to at least 40 kt. As a result of these data, the system has
been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon, the seventh named system of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is enroute to investigate Gordon.

The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt and the previous forecast
track remains unchanged. The intensity forecast was adjusted upward
in the first 24 to 36 hours to account for the initial increase in
intensity. Some additional adjustments may be required after the
reconnaissance aircraft completes its mission and provides more
detailed information on the stricture and intensity of Gordon.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon will bring heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions to
portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for these areas.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of the
central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are expected in
those areas beginning late Tuesday. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will
affect portions of the central Gulf Coast over the next few days,
including areas that have already received heavy rainfall from a
different weather system. Interests in these areas should monitor
products from their local National Weather Service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1230Z 25.1N 80.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 25.7N 82.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 27.2N 84.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 28.8N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 30.4N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 33.0N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0600Z 34.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/0600Z 35.5N 96.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[kevin mathis]

Is it me or is the center passing over mainland south Florida..which is north of the cone yesterday?

It is...I posted just a bit ago it looks to be heading to an exit into the Gulf somewhere near Everglades City/Marco Island. That would be on the far right side of the cone.

[RL3AO]

To be honest if you had a high density surface observation network (like in South Florida), you could find TS winds in almost any cluster of thunderstorms in the tropics. It's not really any more organized than it was six hours ago.

Yep, im surprised they pulled the trigger

Huh? Guess we've not been watching the same system. Looks like a T.S. to me

It looks like a borderline tropical cyclone with squally weather to me. I don't see a closed surface circulation yet, but I can see why NHC pulled the trigger.

[jlauderdal]

there is a bullseye of qpf 4 inches in SW florida, thats damn impressive

[tolakram]

SLIDER: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=1162&y=801&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider


COD: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[caneman]

In the past, you would be correct. However, the PTC designation is for advanced warning which is what the NHC did for South Florida, and the Northern Gulf. No one should have been unaware of this system.

Most people don't pay attention to a PTC especially during a holiday weekend not like they would actual warnings. It also doesnt get nearly the hype. The average person doesnt keep their head buried in the weather. Not a big deal though, we're used to this kind of weather.

Not the fault of the NHC. They warned.

But like you said, it's nothing that anyone can't handle.

I'm not blaming them but it wouldnt have hurt to upgrade even last night. No biggie though. Floridians dont get concerned until its cat 3 or higher. Lol

[Ivanhater]

Yeah..cone had middle keys yesterday...wonder if they shift cone east

[tolakram]

678
WTNT42 KNHC 031236
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Special Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
830 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and southeast Florida,
along with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate
that the disturbance has developed a closed surface circulation and
a well-defined center. Recent observations from a Weatherflow site
at Carys Fort Reef and radar data support increasing the maximum
winds to at least 40 kt. As a result of these data, the system has
been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon, the seventh named system of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is enroute to investigate Gordon.

The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt and the previous forecast
track remains unchanged. The intensity forecast was adjusted upward
in the first 24 to 36 hours to account for the initial increase in
intensity. Some additional adjustments may be required after the
reconnaissance aircraft completes its mission and provides more
detailed information on the stricture and intensity of Gordon.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon will bring heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions to
portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for these areas.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of the
central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are expected in
those areas beginning late Tuesday. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will
affect portions of the central Gulf Coast over the next few days,
including areas that have already received heavy rainfall from a
different weather system. Interests in these areas should monitor
products from their local National Weather Service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1230Z 25.1N 80.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 25.7N 82.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 27.2N 84.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 28.8N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 30.4N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 33.0N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0600Z 34.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/0600Z 35.5N 96.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[NDG]

Yep, im surprised they pulled the trigger

Huh? Guess we've not been watching the same system. Looks like a T.S. to me

It looks like a borderline tropical cyclone with squally weather to me. I don't see a closed surface circulation yet, but I can see why NHC pulled the trigger.

Like I mentioned before there were light westerly winds reported in Islamorada as it tracked over Key Largo, considering its fast 15 kt speed that's all they need to upgrade it to a TS, it has a vigorous h70 circulation.

[GCANE]

Deep anticyclone in the west GOM from the convection that was firing this weekend.
Looks like it'll anchor in all the way to Gordon's landfall.
Any break down in that shear axis and UL conditions could improve quite a bit.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

[TheStormExpert]

Well we got Gordon! This thing is zooming along fast too, to the WNW @ 16mph! Wouldn't expect more than a mid-upper end TS at best with how fast Gordon is moving.

[MississippiWx]

678
WTNT42 KNHC 031236
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Special Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
830 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and southeast Florida,
along with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate
that the disturbance has developed a closed surface circulation and
a well-defined center. Recent observations from a Weatherflow site
at Carys Fort Reef and radar data support increasing the maximum
winds to at least 40 kt. As a result of these data, the system has
been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon, the seventh named system of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is enroute to investigate Gordon.

The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt and the previous forecast
track remains unchanged. The intensity forecast was adjusted upward
in the first 24 to 36 hours to account for the initial increase in
intensity. Some additional adjustments may be required after the
reconnaissance aircraft completes its mission and provides more
detailed information on the stricture and intensity of Gordon.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon will bring heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions to
portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for these areas.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of the
central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are expected in
those areas beginning late Tuesday. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will
affect portions of the central Gulf Coast over the next few days,
including areas that have already received heavy rainfall from a
different weather system. Interests in these areas should monitor
products from their local National Weather Service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1230Z 25.1N 80.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 25.7N 82.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 27.2N 84.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 28.8N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 30.4N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 33.0N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0600Z 34.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/0600Z 35.5N 96.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Have to think they will adjust the intensity up to 70mph or so. They originally had this strengthening all the way until landfall.

Also, anyone notice the well-defined center portion of the discussion? Thought it was fairly obvious myself.

[NDG]

Here we go, Port Everglades now reporting sustained winds 42 knots, gusting to 49 knots.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=pegf1

[MississippiWx]

Here we go, Port Everglades now reporting sustained winds 42 knots, gusting to 49 knots.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=pegf1

If it looks like a duck, sounds like a duck, and walks like a duck...it probably is a duck. Lol.

[JarrodB]

Overcast...but fair weather this morning in key west. We might see a rain band or two later but so far all the heavy stuff is north.

[RL3AO]

I'm curious to see what kind of winds recon finds. When you only had satellite and didn't have radar and surface obs, this probably is still an invest.

[NDG]

Overcast...but fair weather this morning in key west. We might see a rain band or two later but so far all the heavy stuff is north.

You are on the weak side of the storm.

[Ivanhater]

The track is definitely north...any bets they move warnings east?

[kevin mathis]

The track is definitely north...any bets they move warnings easr?

My bet is yes...and probably extend north from Bonita to account for a closer approach to the West coast of Florida Peninsula

[cycloneye]

Air Force plane is flying torwards Gordon.