ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[MississippiWx]

The outflow pattern is very impressive. We have a buzzsaw in the southeast Gulf with 36-48 hours of water and favorable conditions left.

[PSUHiker31]

Another thing that should be mentioned besides people relying too heavily on shear analysis maps to forecast is that good outflow for tropical cyclones can show up as shear near the perimeter of the tropical cyclone on said maps. Do not get confused by this.

Also I just have to mention that I see now that there are warnings up in the peninsula after someone trashed my comment that the NHC's previous decision to not place watches or warnings there was a head scratcher.

[artist]

945
URNT12 KNHC 031533
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072018
A. 03/14:45:50Z
B. 25.46 deg N 081.33 deg W
C. 925 mb 773 m
D. EXTRAP 1010 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 40 kt
I. 326 deg 1 nm 14:46:30Z
J. 077 deg 43 kt
K. 306 deg 53 nm 14:25:00Z
L. 40 kt
M. 326 deg 1 nm 14:46:30Z
N. 055 deg 39 kt
O. 298 deg 2 nm 14:47:00Z
P. 19 C / 915 m
Q. 20 C / 924 m
R. NA / NA
S. 1345 / 09
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF307 0107A GORDON OB 04
MAX FL WIND 43 KT 306 / 53 NM 14:25:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;

[artist]

945
URNT12 KNHC 031533
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072018
A. 03/14:45:50Z
B. 25.46 deg N 081.33 deg W
C. 925 mb 773 m
D. EXTRAP 1010 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 40 kt
I. 326 deg 1 nm 14:46:30Z
J. 077 deg 43 kt
K. 306 deg 53 nm 14:25:00Z
L. 40 kt
M. 326 deg 1 nm 14:46:30Z
N. 055 deg 39 kt
O. 298 deg 2 nm 14:47:00Z
P. 19 C / 915 m
Q. 20 C / 924 m
R. NA / NA
S. 1345 / 09
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF307 0107A GORDON OB 04
MAX FL WIND 43 KT 306 / 53 NM 14:25:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;

[GCANE]

CAPE up to 5000 in the GOM now!
Doesn't get much higher than that.

[RL3AO]

I guess 75 knots wouldn't shock me if all goes right, but I'd still forecast landfall to be in the 55 to 65 knot range. The outflow on the western side is never going to be great even with the somewhat lighter shear than expected. But maybe Gordon will surprise me again.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 031553
AF307 0107A GORDON HDOB 21 20180903
154330 2517N 07954W 9082 00991 0182 +178 +175 161038 039 033 010 00
154400 2519N 07954W 9077 00996 0181 +181 +172 160039 040 039 006 00
154430 2521N 07954W 9072 01002 0186 +177 +176 150037 039 039 007 00
154500 2523N 07954W 9078 00994 0180 +178 +166 155036 036 035 008 00
154530 2525N 07954W 9078 00995 0181 +178 +170 151037 038 035 007 00
154600 2527N 07954W 9082 00990 0182 +177 +171 144040 040 033 009 00
154630 2528N 07954W 9081 00993 0182 +177 +176 143040 041 035 011 00
154700 2530N 07954W 9080 00995 0182 +181 +181 146041 042 033 014 00
154730 2532N 07954W 9082 00991 0182 +182 +181 146040 041 035 012 00
154800 2534N 07954W 9080 00995 0182 +181 +180 144039 040 036 008 00
154830 2536N 07954W 9080 00995 0182 +181 +181 142039 039 035 007 00
154900 2538N 07954W 9080 00995 0182 +182 +177 142036 039 035 007 00
154930 2539N 07954W 9082 00993 0182 +184 +173 141033 035 035 008 00
155000 2541N 07954W 9078 00997 0182 +182 +175 142033 033 035 008 00
155030 2543N 07954W 9081 00994 0183 +182 +175 139036 037 037 007 00
155100 2545N 07954W 9080 00996 0183 +182 +173 137038 039 034 006 00
155130 2547N 07954W 9080 00994 0182 +184 +175 137039 039 034 005 00
155200 2548N 07954W 9080 00996 0181 +187 +173 139039 039 033 004 00
155230 2550N 07954W 9081 00994 0180 +190 +165 140037 038 032 004 00
155300 2552N 07954W 9080 00995 0181 +190 +157 139036 037 032 004 00

[toad strangler]

.

[drezee]

CAPE up to 5000 in the GOM now!
Doesn't get much higher than that.

http://i63.tinypic.com/10gxpvq.png

I hate when the general public has to play catchup. Hurricane warnings likely won't be issued until less than 24 hours before 50kt+ winds are on shore. People will be at work tomorrow and will not be able to prepare. I'd issue hurricane warnings at 0z.

[tolakram]

The floater has been moved so the map is not showing, but in a way this gives a better view of how Gordon is developing.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[GumboCane83]

Any chance the forecast track shifts back westward towards New Orleans?

[MississippiWx]

Any chance the forecast track shifts back westward towards New Orleans?

If you’re in the cone, it’s possible.

[RL3AO]

I hate when the general public has to play catchup. Hurricane warnings likely won't be issued until less than 24 hours before 50kt+ winds are on shore. People will be at work tomorrow and will not be able to prepare. I'd issue hurricane warnings at 0z.

A hurricane watch and storm surge warning has been issued. At this point, if people choose to wait until a warning then that's their fault.

[wxman57]

Any chance the forecast track shifts back westward towards New Orleans?

That would seem unlikely, but not totally impossible.

[GCANE]

The floater has been moved so the map is not showing, but in a way this gives a better view of how Gordon is developing.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Not even close to any kind of shear.

[tolakram]

I wonder if the non-storm in the western gulf a few days ago, plus the upper level anti-cyclone that developed, is really fooling the global models as far as how much shear there will be?

[drezee]

I hate when the general public has to play catchup. Hurricane warnings likely won't be issued until less than 24 hours before 50kt+ winds are on shore. People will be at work tomorrow and will not be able to prepare. I'd issue hurricane warnings at 0z.

A hurricane watch and storm surge warning has been issued. At this point, if people choose to wait until a warning then that's their fault.

As a southerner "born and raised", most people have no idea what a storm surge warning is and ignore watches, unfortunately. They move when the news says Hurricane Warning...

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 031603
AF307 0107A GORDON HDOB 22 20180903
155330 2554N 07954W 9081 00994 0182 +186 +158 140039 039 034 007 00
155400 2556N 07954W 9080 00996 0183 +185 +159 137040 040 033 007 00
155430 2558N 07954W 9080 00998 0184 +185 +165 138041 041 033 006 00
155500 2559N 07954W 9080 00998 0185 +185 +163 137042 042 032 006 00
155530 2601N 07954W 9080 00999 0185 +185 +162 136040 041 033 005 00
155600 2603N 07954W 9081 00998 0187 +186 +157 137039 040 033 006 00
155630 2605N 07954W 9080 01000 0188 +183 +156 135040 040 034 008 00
155700 2607N 07954W 9078 01002 0191 +180 +158 134039 040 032 009 00
155730 2608N 07954W 9081 01000 0191 +180 +154 133037 040 032 009 00
155800 2610N 07954W 9078 01005 0190 +182 +169 132037 039 031 006 00
155830 2612N 07954W 9084 00997 0189 +185 +165 130040 041 031 006 00
155900 2614N 07954W 9081 01001 0190 +183 +174 132041 042 028 007 00
155930 2616N 07954W 9078 01004 0192 +181 +179 130038 039 028 007 00
160000 2617N 07954W 9080 01004 0192 +183 +175 131036 038 029 007 00
160030 2619N 07954W 9079 01006 0195 +181 +181 132038 039 037 023 00
160100 2621N 07954W 9082 01003 0200 +182 +182 132036 037 035 030 00
160130 2623N 07954W 9068 01017 0201 +178 +178 126035 042 035 019 03
160200 2624N 07954W 9106 00975 0202 +169 +169 122036 045 046 077 03
160230 2626N 07954W 9071 01001 0198 +163 +163 148045 049 052 079 03
160300 2628N 07954W 9083 01000 0202 +176 +176 146039 047 036 032 00

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1036639541942214657

[Sanibel]

Hardly anything here...Low dirty cotton ball band clouds in a tropical spiral...Some blue sky still to north...Rain drops but no rain and hardly any wind...