ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 13:18Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 07 in 2018
Storm Name: Gordon (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 13:01:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28.29N 86.51W
B. Center Fix Location: 140 statute miles (225 km) to the SSW (201°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,474m (4,836ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 55° at 8kts (From the NE at 9mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 53kts (61.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix at 12:56:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 48kts (From the ESE at 55.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix at 12:41:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 32kts (36.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 4 nautical miles to the WSW (251°) of center fix at 13:02:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 318° at 23kts (From the NW at 26.5mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the WSW (238°) of center fix at 13:04:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,513m (4,964ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,516m (4,974ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) which was observed 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the NE (50°) from the flight level center at 12:41:00Z

[tolakram]

Here's the rapid update meso loop

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[tolakram]

SLIDER version: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=915.5&y=768&z=2&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Aric Dunn]

Here's the rapid update meso loop

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

yeah you can see the start of what will be that very large burst on radar.

coldest cloud tops i have seen with the system thus far.

[Rocketman]

Checking in from Stennis Space Center, beautiful morning here in Hancock County MS.

[NDG]

http://i64.tinypic.com/24wevyt.png

That's a nice jog to the NW that it did between the two fixes. I did noticed that since yesterday the LLC has been togging closer to the convection to the NE whenever there's new convection refiring.

[tolakram]

The eye drop looks to have very little wind shear.

[bella_may]

Pretty big convection wrapped around the north and east side of the center now

[Ivanhater]

looks like landfall maybe closer to Mobile

[bella_may]

looks like landfall maybe closer to Mobile

Noooo

[Dean4Storms]

Lightning showing up around the center especially northern eyewall on radarscope app.

[Frank P]

looks like landfall maybe closer to Mobile

You could be right but it will have to make a hard NW turn now or have a center relocation to a tad to the NE, also unlikely, probably just stair stepping, I might go maybe as far east as Pascagoula, which would give Mobile plenty of weather for sure...

[NDG]

looks like landfall maybe closer to Mobile

12z models are still very persistent over Harrison County MS.

[bella_may]

looks like landfall maybe closer to Mobile

You could be right but it will have to make a hard NW turn now or have a center relocation to a tad to the NE, also unlikely, probably just stair stepping, I might go maybe as far east as Pascagoula, which would give Mobile plenty of weather for sure...

He said closer to mobile. Pascagoula is pretty close

[Frank P]

looks like landfall maybe closer to Mobile

You could be right but it will have to make a hard NW turn now or have a center relocation to a tad to the NE, also unlikely, probably just stair stepping, I might go maybe as far east as Pascagoula, which would give Mobile plenty of weather for sure...

He said closer to mobile. Pascagoula is pretty close

yeah, and so is Pensacola... all subjective... IMO

[Frank P]

Gordon's current convection burst trying to cover the center of circulation... maybe his last gasp to reach hurricane?

[Aric Dunn]

Gordon's current convection burst trying to cover the center of circulation... maybe his last gasp to reach hurricane?

it needs to sustain it.. and again its leaving it behind. so not quite yet..

[GCANE]

Kermit reporting a couple 55 knot peak SFMR in the clear

[NDG]

[bella_may]

First time I’ve seen storms fire on the west side of it