ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS had ~1/3 of its members cross 60W south of 30N and more than half of this 1/3 later hit the SE US.
The brand new 0Z EPS has 80%+ of its members crossing 60W south of 30N. This run will undoubtedly have numerous SE hits later OMG.

[northjaxpro]

Since 2016, I have really learned to trust the UKMET model . It has done reasonably well with storms recently , especially with Matthew in 2016 and Irma last year. It is currently showing Florence on a due west header into next week and gets it too close for comfort to the Southeast U.S. one week out.

UKMET indeed is one of the best models in my opinion long range and for it to be showing that strong of ridging across the Western Atlantic really has my undivided attention.

[LarryWx]

If you think that the above map showing the 12Z EPS members hitting the SE is threatening, wait till you see the 0Z EPS. There are so many hits crowded together from north central FL to NC centered on 9/13 that it is very hard to even count them!

[northjaxpro]

Larry, I have seen them(0Z EPS). It is very concerning seeing the suite of models which point directly to the Southeast U.S. Atlantic coast.

Positive NAO looks to be verifying.unfortunately.

[USTropics]

Here are the 0z ECMWF ensembles:



Also the UKMET has been consistent with its forecast. When the model locks in like that, it has my attention. Still a chance of a recurve east of Bermuda, but the ECMWF and GFS operational/ensembles have been all over the place past few days and are trending west once again.

[Kingarabian]

Since 2016, I have really learned to trust the UKMET model . It has done reasonably well with storms recently , especially with Matthew in 2016 and Irma last year. It is currently showing Florence on a due west header into next week and gets it too close for comfort to the Southeast U.S. one week out.

UKMET indeed is one of the best models in my opinion long range and for it to be showing that strong of ridging across the Western Atlantic really has my undivided attention.

It's a pretty good alternative to the GFS and the Euro.

[Kingarabian]

00z UK-ENS:

[chris_fit]

06 GFS shifted S/W Some - Right off the coast NC moving WNW/NW right into the Ridge?

[Kazmit]

Sub 900 mbars

[xtyphooncyclonex]

These runs are really reminiscent of those doomsday Irma runs... at about the exact same time of year.

[Hurricaneman]

The 6zGFS smacks Eastern New England hard, as of right now we’ll have to watch and see if anymore South and west adjustments happen because it’s pretty much not if there’s a landfall but where if the trend continues

[NDG]

All I know is that the Euro has been horribly left biased this season so far, I will believe it that it wold be an east coast threat when it shows Florence making it all the way to the MS River.

[Hurricaneman]

All I know is that the Euro has been horribly left biased this season so far, I will believe it that it wold be an east coast threat when it shows Florence making it all the way to the MS River.

But here’s the thing the UKMET has been leading the charge I terms of track with the last few US hits and it’s not trending to the other models, the other models are trending to the UKMET which is a big concern

[Ken711]

How long before recon flights could gather data?

[Hurricaneman]

How long before recon flights could gather data?

Probably by Saturday or Sunday I would think

[BobHarlem]

That would be the worst case scenario for Myrtle Beach

Florence goes to Florence, SC. (I hope not)

UKMet did surprisingly well with Irma last year (in fact any well formed tropical system), so in certain situation it can nail it, I have a sneaking suspicion it has a good handle on Florence.

[hohnywx]

Sub 900 mbars

Holy moly...I know that the pressure is likely overdone but crazy to see that off of Virginia!

[Nimbus]

10 days out there and it can't find a weakness to recurve east of Hatteras?
When has that ever happened before?

[SFLcane]

10 days out there and it can't find a weakness to recurve east of Hatteras?
When has that ever happened before?

I’am with you there at this latitude is should feel a tug northward before coming to close to the southeast

[NDG]

All I know is that the Euro has been horribly left biased this season so far, I will believe it that it wold be an east coast threat when it shows Florence making it all the way to the MS River.

But here’s the thing the UKMET has been leading the charge I terms of track with the last few US hits and it’s not trending to the other models, the other models are trending to the UKMET which is a big concern

I'm going to sit neutral with the Euro for the rest of the season, it did quiet well with Gordon's cyclogenesis but fairly horrible (considering its standard) with its track & intensity at times.
Actually a good blend between the Euro and GFS would not be a bad idea past the TVCN's range. UKMET to me is too inconsistent at times.