ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[floridasun78]

twc saying that all from key west to new England need watch it by late next week all depend on high were it place key is weakness and high building off coast by next week

[otowntiger]

twc saying that all from key west to new England need watch it by late next week all depend on high were it place key is weakness and high building off coast by next week

They are right, but they are also interested in viewership, so we have to take it all with a grain of salt. Of course we all know that the long range predictions/modeling has to be taken with a grain of salt as well.

[LarryWx]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1037320484482891777

Levi makes a great point here. Further update: she is at 22.0N, 45.7W as of 11AM EDT. That means that a whopping 49 of the 51 members are S of the actual track and Flo is, indeed, north of the 0Z EPS mean guidance. So, this means that PERHAPS the 0Z EPS mean track is too far south. At least that’s what Levi is getting at. Hopefully, Flo will continue to track along the northern edge of this guidance. If this continues, maybe future EPS runs will come back north. However, she being on the north side of the guidance may be temporary/due to wobbling. So, I’m not actually calling for this at least yet. Just something to follow.

[chris_fit]

Didn't see the FV3 GFS from 06Z posted - Safely out to see without any hesitation

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This possible westward track could begin as soon as five days from now, which will be the most important factor in determining whether or not Florence comes to the US.

[chris_fit]

12 GFS a bit north and east of the 06z through 72 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

The door is wide open at 78 hours for Florence to make a run for it and head off to the North Atlantic. Let's see if she takes the bait or if the door gets shut.

[Bocadude85]

12 GFS a bit north and east of the 06z through 72 hours

Slower then the 6z also, seems to be on a solid WNW track from 36-78hrs.

[chris_fit]

The door is wide open at 78 hours for Florence to make a run for it and head off to the North Atlantic. Let's see if she takes the bait or if the door gets shut.

Yea, I dont know how it won't miss this...

[ava_ati]

I don't know that is a huge high coming out of Canada, window looks pretty small to me

[chris_fit]

Rdige starting to build in...

[floridasun78]

new gfs show weakness but and at end it close . gfs still loading now new run

[Bocadude85]

At 120hrs Florence appears to have turned west.

[SouthFLTropics]

Yep, door closed yet again. The west turn has commenced, despite Florence being further North and East to start this run. Now the only question is how far west does she get???

[floridasun78]

At 120hrs Florence appears to have turned west.

130 hour show weakness but on coast

[drewschmaltz]

Might be south of last 4 trend by 150hrs

[floridasun78]

here weakness by north carolina hour 138

[Blown Away]

here weakness by north carolina hour 138

Is that Gordon remnants?

[SFLcane]

Um Florence isn't turning north into the big ridge over head..

[Hurricaneman]

here weakness by north carolina hour 138

Is that Gordon remnants?

Yes