2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[mcheer23]

Looks like a conga line of re curves

Lol, yep- I called it ‘tropical fish train’! Sure as someone said, the high could build back in but with that steady succession of systems rolling in I think each system will be keeping the door open for the next guy to go thru.

That sounds good to me. Plenty of storms to track, good surf, and no threat to land.

Might have at least one storm in the SW GOM or BOC that's one to track for Mexico or Texas

[northjaxpro]

If that many storms do happen per the Euro, you got to think one might slip through. The weakness created by Florence won’t be there the entire time. The ridge over the Eastern US looks very dominant. Usually we see troughs swinging through instead.

Euro heights 192 hours:

I agree. I don't remember seeing that strong a ridge so firmly entrenched over the east coast in a long time and every major model is showing this so this is not some Euro fantasy. 60w looks like the point after which anything will get trapped.

Positive NAO is forecast well into September. Anomolous HP is likely to happen over the Western Atlantic or the U.S. Atlantic seaboard. This set-up or pattern indeed is quite worrisome for potential tropical cyclone strikes , especially the U.S.East Coast or even Gulf of Mexico region.. All dependent on the strength of the Bermuda High.

[La Breeze]

+264

Anyone have more info or model readings on this? Just wondering.

[Cpv17]

+264

Anyone have more info or model readings on this? Just wondering.

This is something where we have plenty of time to watch. The CMC and GFS model have been hinting at development in the BOC in about 10 days or so, but the majority of the runs have had minimal development and it gets buried into Mexico. Only two runs of the GFS so far have had this going into Texas. I doubt anything comes out of it at this time, but you never know.

[La Breeze]

+264

Anyone have more info or model readings on this? Just wondering.

This is something where we have plenty of time to watch. The CMC and GFS model have been hinting at development in the BOC in about 10 days or so, but the majority of the runs have had minimal development and it gets buried into Mexico. Only two runs of the GFS so far have had this going into Texas. I doubt anything comes out of it at this time, but you never know.

Thanks Cpv17.

[SoupBone]

The Texas coast system continues to be pushed back. It keeps pushing it back every run, and it's now 3 days behind what it was previously showing on the GFS. I think the GFS is in la la land right now, but at least it gives us something to talk about.

[wxGuy]

Anyone have more info or model readings on this? Just wondering.

This is something where we have plenty of time to watch. The CMC and GFS model have been hinting at development in the BOC in about 10 days or so, but the majority of the runs have had minimal development and it gets buried into Mexico. Only two runs of the GFS so far have had this going into Texas. I doubt anything comes out of it at this time, but you never know.

Thanks Cpv17.

checked gfs today and its back

[SconnieCane]

This whole process of model watching as the Atlantic woke up from its August slumber, from watching the waves roll across Africa and seeing "modelstorms" pop up in the far long range, to them appearing on the 5-day TWO, then becoming invests, and evolving into storms like Florence, reminds me of the battle scene from Star Wars:

"Stabilize your rear deflectors. Watch for enemy fighters...They're coming in! Three marks at two-ten!"

[mcheer23]

This is something where we have plenty of time to watch. The CMC and GFS model have been hinting at development in the BOC in about 10 days or so, but the majority of the runs have had minimal development and it gets buried into Mexico. Only two runs of the GFS so far have had this going into Texas. I doubt anything comes out of it at this time, but you never know.

Thanks Cpv17.

checked gfs today and its back

Another run, another TX landfall...however weaker.

[SoupBone]

Thanks Cpv17.

checked gfs today and its back

Another run, another TX landfall...however weaker.

Yeah but like I posted earlier, it keeps getting pushed back. It's now 6 days beyond the original hint at a Texas system (it was originally showing the 13th). The GFS (if I recall) has been known to spin these phantoms up, and continue to push development back by days. It's a strange thing. Guess we'll keep looking at it though.

[NDG]

checked gfs today and its back

Another run, another TX landfall...however weaker.

Yeah but like I posted earlier, it keeps getting pushed back. It's now 6 days beyond the original hint at a Texas system (it was originally showing the 13th). The GFS (if I recall) has been known to spin these phantoms up, and continue to push development back by days. It's a strange thing. Guess we'll keep looking at it though.

https://s22.postimg.cc/5fw0q5i3l/wave.png

Actually the GFS has not been that aggressive lately on spinning up phantom storms.

[SoupBone]

Another run, another TX landfall...however weaker.

Yeah but like I posted earlier, it keeps getting pushed back. It's now 6 days beyond the original hint at a Texas system (it was originally showing the 13th). The GFS (if I recall) has been known to spin these phantoms up, and continue to push development back by days. It's a strange thing. Guess we'll keep looking at it though.

https://s22.postimg.cc/5fw0q5i3l/wave.png

Actually the GFS has not been that aggressive lately on spinning up phantom storms.

Well again though, each consecutive run keeps pushing the date back. It started as a September 13th landfall, and now it's on the 19th. Something isn't quite right with that. But again, it does make a nice conversation topic.

[Cpv17]

Yeah but like I posted earlier, it keeps getting pushed back. It's now 6 days beyond the original hint at a Texas system (it was originally showing the 13th). The GFS (if I recall) has been known to spin these phantoms up, and continue to push development back by days. It's a strange thing. Guess we'll keep looking at it though.

https://s22.postimg.cc/5fw0q5i3l/wave.png

Actually the GFS has not been that aggressive lately on spinning up phantom storms.

Well again though, each consecutive run keeps pushing the date back. It started as a September 13th landfall, and now it's on the 19th. Something isn't quite right with that. But again, it does make a nice conversation topic.

Genesis has started around the same time, but the landfall keeps getting pushed back. Looks like it just sits in the BOC for a good while.

[mcheer23]

The area in the BOC/ SW GOM is now featured on the Global Tropical Hazards outlook
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

Euro started to pick up on it today also.

[SoupBone]

The area in the BOC/ SW GOM is now featured on the Global Tropical Hazards outlook
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

Euro started to pick up on it today also.

"The GFS and some ensemble members from the European model suggest that tropical cyclone development is possible over the western Gulf of Mexico during Week-2, which has been indicated in our forecast."

So they're basing is strictly from model runs?

[stormlover2013]

yep that's what they do when its sept and peak of season.

[storminabox]

This whole process of model watching as the Atlantic woke up from its August slumber, from watching the waves roll across Africa and seeing "modelstorms" pop up in the far long range, to them appearing on the 5-day TWO, then becoming invests, and evolving into storms like Florence, reminds me of the battle scene from Star Wars:

"Stabilize your rear deflectors. Watch for enemy fighters...They're coming in! Three marks at two-ten!"

The evolution of how the Atlantic just goes from being dead to very active never ceases to amaze me. I remember a few weeks ago when the models first started to show hints to the very active period we are in now. It’s amazing how the flip just switches every year without fail once we start getting to this time of year.

[mcheer23]

18z GFS still shows this system...however sends it straight to Mexico. Barley has any time in the BOC

[NDG]

The area in the BOC/ SW GOM is now featured on the Global Tropical Hazards outlook
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

Euro started to pick up on it today also.

"The GFS and some ensemble members from the European model suggest that tropical cyclone development is possible over the western Gulf of Mexico during Week-2, which has been indicated in our forecast."

So they're basing is strictly from model runs?

That should not be a surprise to you, forecasters do that all the time based off models.

[SoupBone]

The area in the BOC/ SW GOM is now featured on the Global Tropical Hazards outlook
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

Euro started to pick up on it today also.

"The GFS and some ensemble members from the European model suggest that tropical cyclone development is possible over the western Gulf of Mexico during Week-2, which has been indicated in our forecast."

So they're basing is strictly from model runs?

That should not be a surprise to you, forecasters do that all the time based off models.

It's not. Maybe I should rephrase the question. Are there other factors besides the GFS and a few ensembles used to add this as a moderate threat on the chart?