ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[chris_fit]

Pretty much landfall - Paying the Whitehouse a Visit

[pgoss11]

Chesapeake bay landfall. That would be disastrous. Thank God it's over a week from now and things will change.

[LarryWx]

Stalling offshore just S of NJ?

[supercane4867]

12z EC has a doomsday ridge over NA. There is almost no way for it to escape. I think the landfall point on 00z run seems more likely if that pattern varifies.

[tolakram]

Here's the approach so far.

[chris_fit]

If that verified it might turn the Delmarva Peninsula into an island!

[ronjon]

Looks like ridging is strengthening and expanding north of Flo on the last frames of the 12z Euro run.

[chris_fit]

Stalling/SE Drift @ 240 hours

[ronjon]

These model runs out past 5-7 days are really entertaining to watch but won't verify. More anxious watching and waiting the next week.

[supercane4867]

So EC has Florence stalling and moving due south at 240hr...garbage run

[edu2703]

Go home EURO! You're drunk!

[tolakram]

Loopy

[tolakram]

No landfall though, missed it by this much.

[AutoPenalti]

UKMET the only model that is sober at the moment.

[BobHarlem]

So EC has Florence stalling and moving due south at 240hr...garbage run

That ridging isn't garbage... Track probably is though.

Florence is wide open with possibilities. It stalling right along the coast is one of them. It basically hangs just off the Maryland coast for 3 days on that run.

[toad strangler]

No tropical cyclone is going to fair well sitting and spinning for days in those waters. It would rot.

[BYG Jacob]

still through 5 days the models are in fairly good agreement. trending towards the weakness filling in going to be an interesting few days.

WESH 2 News Met, Kyle Gravlin (sp?) just gave the 'all clear' for Florida on their noon broadcast. He says any norhtward component from here on out will guarantee that the Sunshine state is missed. I found that to be interesting for him to say anything so definitive this far out. Although the odds are in his favor for sure.

Geez, not this again. Stop doing this.

[Aric Dunn]

A little something to realize in the entire scenario... there is NO large trough or short waves coming to save the day. Florence through this period will be steered solely but various "lobes" in the sub tropical ridge essentially weaker and stronger ridges that are positioned east, west, north, or south it. kind of like a pinball machine where the ball gets stuck at the top bouncing around the rubber bumper things.

[AutoPenalti]

still through 5 days the models are in fairly good agreement. trending towards the weakness filling in going to be an interesting few days.

WESH 2 News Met, Kyle Gravlin (sp?) just gave the 'all clear' for Florida on their noon broadcast. He says any norhtward component from here on out will guarantee that the Sunshine state is missed. I found that to be interesting for him to say anything so definitive this far out. Although the odds are in his favor for sure.

Geez, not this again. Stop doing this.

Petition to ban the words “WESH 2”?

[StormyWaters93]

WESH 2 News Met, Kyle Gravlin (sp?) just gave the 'all clear' for Florida on their noon broadcast. He says any norhtward component from here on out will guarantee that the Sunshine state is missed. I found that to be interesting for him to say anything so definitive this far out. Although the odds are in his favor for sure.

Geez, not this again. Stop doing this.

Petition to ban the words “WESH 2”?

Aye!

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