ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[PandaCitrus]

GFS recurves at 189 hours south of New England.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Oh, so it's going to be one of those pure horror runs, then. Good thing it's still 174 hours out.

I know it is a model run, but this is like watching a horror movie, especially because of where this is trying to make landfall.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Loop coming?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Oh, so it's going to be one of those pure horror runs, then. Good thing it's still 174 hours out.

I know it is a model run, but this is like watching a horror movie, especially because of where this is trying to make landfall.

It just pulled a "psyche!" and did a recurve short of New York.

[HurricaneEric]

GFS recurves at 189 hours south of New England.

Talk about a huge difference between the GFS and UKMET... At about 73W, UKMET has Florence at 25N moving W while GFS has it at about 38N looking to possible recurve to the NE.

[Cpv17]

GFS recurves at 189 hours south of New England.

Talk about a huge difference between the GFS and UKMET... At about 73W, UKMET has Florence at 25N moving W while GFS has it at about 38N looking to possible recurve to the NE.

Ridging must be awfully strong on the UKMET.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

So, now that the GFS has Florence recurving, can we talk about the low that forms in the north Atlantic, moves SE, and appears to form into a storm, turning what would be the next storm off of Africa to the north? Would that type of thing have an effect on tracking for Florence in this run?

[TheDreamTraveler]

It'd be scraping against the coast pretty much. Looks like it's moving very slowly. Normally when hurricanes go north near jersey and new england they tend to accelerate.

[GeneratorPower]

Becoming clear why NHC limits their forecasts to 5 days. Models aren’t that accurate farther out. Too many variables.

I think the first left bend starting at hour 24-36 should pan out. After that ????

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like the gfs and Canadian show the same movement around hour 198 with a sharp clockwise hook around the northwest side of a high. Gfs does the hook south of Long Island while Canadian does the same hook over North Carolina

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[hurricaneCW]

I think she's going to plow into the Delmarva, the CMC is probably right on with the stronger ridging but the track looks too far south.

And we're talking record SE Canada ridging, track could end up similar to Isabel but further north. All of this is still speculative though, the Ukmet is really throwing me off.

[Hurricaneman]

I have a feeling past 60hrs could be a forecasting headache as we have several different scenarios from the UKMET without a north turn to The Euro and GFS which erode the original ridge and rebuild the ridge threatening the mid Atlantic and Northeast states to NAVGEM with out to sea

[lando]

I have a feeling past 60hrs could be a forecasting headache as we have several different scenarios from the UKMET without a north turn to The Euro and GFS which erode the original ridge and rebuild the ridge threatening the mid Atlantic and Northeast states to NAVGEM with out to sea

Ukie hasn’t flinched in two days but the euro and gfs keep windshield washing hmm

[Kingarabian]

New 0z UKMET ends at 25N 73W moving due west

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

anyone the ukmet intensity for 00z ?

Hour 144, 966mb.

[Aric Dunn]

Could be some credence to the UKMET . does appear to be under a sheared environment and weaker for a couple days allowing the ridging to being well established before it begins to intensify again.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the satellite it looks like Florence is already starting the west turn, it would mean the GFS is turning west 18hrs later than observed so that means the GFS may already be off in the short run

[AxaltaRacing24]

Looking at the satellite it looks like Florence is already starting the west turn, it would mean the GFS is turning west 18hrs later than observed so that means the GFS may already be off in the short run

I was noticing that as well, but was not able to tell if shear was casting an illusion.

[AutoPenalti]

Looking at the satellite it looks like Florence is already starting the west turn, it would mean the GFS is turning west 18hrs later than observed so that means the GFS may already be off in the short run

I was noticing that as well, but was not able to tell if shear was casting an illusion.

NHC discussion did mention that it was about to even out its heading.

[TheDreamTraveler]

lol ukmet. it sure is stuck on that solution. Obviously it hasn't always been right with every storm. But still...definitely still an outlier.

[Bocadude85]

Well the UKMET is either going to bust big time or have a major win. If nothing else it has been very consistent with its idea of a westerly heading.