ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Cpv17]

lol ukmet. it sure is stuck on that solution. Obviously it hasn't always been right with every storm. But still.

Well it has the Bermuda High where it’s supposed to be lol

[AutoPenalti]

Is the UKMET initializing with a weaker storm and weakening for a bit?

[Hurricaneman]

Is the UKMET initializing with a weaker storm and weakening for a bit?

Probably, and looking at Florence it seems to be weakening at the moment and looks like at most a cat 2 right now

[Bocadude85]

Look where the UKMET has the ridge centered compared to the GFS at 144hrs.

[Hurricaneman]

Look where the UKMET has the ridge centered compared to the GFS at 144hrs.

It also does nothing with the trough, it may be completely wrong and trash or the models will inch towards the UKMET

[Bocadude85]

Look where the UKMET has the ridge centered compared to the GFS at 144hrs.

It also does nothing with the trough, it may be completely wrong and trash or the models will inch towards the UKMET

I like the UKMET but I really am questioning the ridge placement, I’m just not sure the ridge is going to be centered that far southeast. The ridge has been anchored over the NE for awhile now and I do not see what’s going to change that.

[Cpv17]

Look where the UKMET has the ridge centered compared to the GFS at 144hrs.

It also does nothing with the trough, it may be completely wrong and trash or the models will inch towards the UKMET

I like the UKMET but I really am questioning the ridge placement, I’m just not sure the ridge is going to be centered that far southeast. The ridge has been anchored over the NE for awhile now and I do not see what’s going to change that.

I find the placement of the ridge to be really strange for this time of the year. It’s really far north. Usually, I thought you wouldn’t get a tc threat that far north up the east coast till really late in September and October. I thought storms are more of a threat towards the SE and the Gulf through at least the 3rd week of September.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Euro hour 72 looks like florence is pushed ever so slightly to the wsw

[Bocadude85]

0z Euro 48-72Hr is dipping Florence WSW...not sure it will make a difference in the final outcome though

[Cpv17]

0z Euro 48-72Hr is dipping Florence WSW...not sure it will make a difference in the final outcome though

It also has it moving NW for the first 24 hours when it already appears to be turning more west than north.

[Hurricaneman]

0z Euro 48-72Hr is dipping Florence WSW...not sure it will make a difference in the final outcome though

Well through 72 hrs the Euro matches up closely with the UKMET but it’s after where the differences are going to be but it’s a trend to the south so who knows

[Cpv17]

Euro is similar to the UKMET through 96 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

96hrs farther south.. and looks like its moving ever so slightly south of due west.

[Hurricaneman]

Euro is similar to the UKMET through 96 hours.

Not what one wants to hear in Florida or the SEUS

[Aric Dunn]

by 96 hours on the 12z the euro was already heading nw..

[northjaxpro]

The UKMET so far has been handling Florence pretty good so far. Florence already looks to be weakening currently.

[Aric Dunn]

slight wnw from 96 to 120..

[Brent]

is the UKMET no longer gonna be an outlier?

[Aric Dunn]

looking at the position of the ridge at 120 hours and the streamlines. it should begin to turn more nw unless the ridge builds west.

[Cpv17]

Well one thing is for sure is that the Euro has caved towards the UKMET through 96 hours. Who’s to say that trend won’t continue past that?