ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[LarryWx]

18Z GFS is furthest S of at least the last 4 runs fwiw.

[TheDreamTraveler]

GFS looks a hair more south at hour 78 compared to the 12z run.

Definitely a lot more south at hour 96

[LarryWx]

GFS looks a hair more south at hour 78 compared to the 12z run.

It is much more than a hair south. It crossed 60 W way down at 27.5 N vs the prior 3 runs being then near 30N!

[northjaxpro]

So we can stop with the Florida “all clear” posts right? It’s still at 6-7 day forecast...

There is no one in the clear with Florence at this juncture. Everyone along the East Coast of the Continental United States should be monitoring the progress of this tropical cyclone, especially next week.

Heck, if that ridge turns out to be super strong, you can potentially even not rule out Gulf Coast intetests as well.

[TheDreamTraveler]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1037792438432219136

[Visioen]

Since it has now turned pretty much west. the current 12z euro had it moving nw for another 24 hours.. I smell a south shift in the models later once the motion is ingested. likely not until the 00z run

Agreed. The deck of cards tends to get re-shuffled following a changed initialization. Of course now it'll equally be interesting to see just how fast the storms near-term westward motion will be, especially as compared to where prior (GFS, EURO, etc) global models eventually ceased Florences' westward motion as a resulting of the storm feeling the expected weakness in the W. Atlantic ridge. We're all pretty sure there will be a weakness in the ridge in the few days to come. Problem is.... what if there's no storm quite there to turn more poleward in response to it? Timing is SO everything.

Of course if there is no storm toride around the edge of the ridge, isn't all this discussion/analysis (and in some case hand wringing) for naught? I mean yes, a weaker storm won't feel the ridge, etc. but if its so weak it won't matter where it goes really, unless it generates a lot of inland flooding as a tropical low.

I think he doesn't mean the storm missing the trough because of being weak, but because of taking a different/faster track (west)

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is going to be another loopy loop..

[boulderrr]

Looks like the high coming out of Canada travels east a bit quicker on the 18Z GFS vs. the 12Z, allowing Florence to recurve just a bit earlier.

[Emmett_Brown]

Through the first 120 hours, the GFS and Euro are pretty close atm. The 18z GFS is a little to the left of the previous run through about 144; not by a huge amount, but the last two runs it shifted slightly left.

[toad strangler]

GFS is going to be another loopy loop..

Entertaining isn’t it? This run shifts Florence 50 to 75 miles further S & E off the NC/VA coast

[Hypercane_Kyle]

What's kind of crazy is that some of these model discussions are very similar to the ones we had about Irma exactly this time last year: UKMET showed Irma plowing into Cuba/making it into the western Caribbean, the GFS consistently took Irma out to sea >200 miles off the coast of Florida, and the ECMWF, if I remember correctly, ended up being the most accurate.

[TheDreamTraveler]

looks like its starting the loop around this time

[Blown Away]

Ridge a bit weaker @162, maybe trap door appears and OTS...

[edu2703]

18z GFS is similar to 06z GFS

[AutoPenalti]

Focusing on the first couple of frames from both the Euro and GFS has shown more SW shifts, which leads me to believe that at some point they will adjust once more later tonight.

Has there been any word on whether G-IV has a date set to take samples?

[toad strangler]

Surfs up on the Jersey Shore bruh verbatim
Gnarly

[Bocadude85]

Focusing on the first couple of frames from both the Euro and GFS has shown more SW shifts, which leads me to believe that at some point they will adjust once more later tonight.

Has there been any word on whether G-IV has a date set to take samples?

Yea the first 120hrs of the 18z GFS is southwest of the 6z and 12z runs, the trend has been southwest in the short to mid term for the GFS today.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Those shores are going to absolutely get destroyed if it hangs around that long off the coast like the euro and gfs have been showing...

[tarheelprogrammer]

OTS I hope this is the start of a trend.

[Aric Dunn]

about to dive sw again..