ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Aric Dunn]

personally lets get past the next 36 to 48 hours.. I will wager some money though .... ( i said it many times the last day or so) Florence will draw out this wsw to sw motion longer than forecast. that will of course shift everything south..

UKMET runs from yesterday thus come back in play..

[lando]

South carolina, direct hit

[Aric Dunn]

[Blown Away]

Wow landfall in SC on this Euro run

Yeah, and Flo gets buried deep into Carolinas... That is a trend to watch vs skirting Coast...

[CronkPSU]

Am I reading this right, a 950ish hurricane into Charleston/MB?

[Blown Away]

Ukmet track, good call Aric!

[Bocadude85]

I have to wonder if the UKMET runs from yesterday that everyone thought was crazy that showed Florence heading generally on a westward course around 25-26 N are coming back into play?

[Aric Dunn]

Ukmet track, good call Aric!

said it yesterday/this morning. once it starts moving west and the models ingest this initialized data they will shift south. there is no troughs to help here.

what happens next will depend on how long it moves wsw or west. but becuase models almost always are too quick to turn back wnw ( i.e irma, ike, and many others) we will see the same shape forecast track just shifted west..

[Bocadude85]

0z GFS ensembles are farther east then the 18z.

[lando]

I love how quiet it was for the GFS run but when the euro pops everyones awake!
Looking at the EURO, its getting pretty ugly for the SEUS, atleast the Bahamas are spared so far

[Blown Away]

Ukmet track, good call Aric!

said it yesterday/this morning. once it starts moving west and the models ingest this initialized data they will shift south. there is no troughs to help here.

what happens next will depend on how long it moves wsw or west. but becuase models almost always are too quick to turn back wnw ( i.e irma, ike, and many others) we will see the same shape forecast track just shifted west..

Unscientific, Euro buries Flo into CONUS, that is a significant change compared to previous runs. It’s the adjustment acknowledging of stronger HP and ending the loop idea.

[Hammy]

0z GFS ensembles are farther east then the 18z.

I'm almost thinking the GFS runs should just be disregarded entirely at this point, every single other model is trending further west and south at this point, including the parallel GFS.

[Aric Dunn]

Ukmet track, good call Aric!

said it yesterday/this morning. once it starts moving west and the models ingest this initialized data they will shift south. there is no troughs to help here.

what happens next will depend on how long it moves wsw or west. but becuase models almost always are too quick to turn back wnw ( i.e irma, ike, and many others) we will see the same shape forecast track just shifted west..

Unscientific, Euro buries Flo into CONUS, that is a significant change compared to previous runs. It’s the adjustment acknowledging of stronger HP and ending the loop idea.

unscientific ?

[Blown Away]

said it yesterday/this morning. once it starts moving west and the models ingest this initialized data they will shift south. there is no troughs to help here.

what happens next will depend on how long it moves wsw or west. but becuase models almost always are too quick to turn back wnw ( i.e irma, ike, and many others) we will see the same shape forecast track just shifted west..

Unscientific, Euro buries Flo into CONUS, that is a significant change compared to previous runs. It’s the adjustment acknowledging of stronger HP and ending the loop idea.

unscientific ?

I can’t eloquently explain weather happenings in very scientific terms at times...

[Aric Dunn]

this is the most realistic euro run since 36 hours ago. still say it is a little too far north. but still a lot of variables.

[Aric Dunn]

Unscientific, Euro buries Flo into CONUS, that is a significant change compared to previous runs. It’s the adjustment acknowledging of stronger HP and ending the loop idea.

unscientific ?

I can’t eloquently explain weather happenings in very scientific terms at times...

lol ok .. ill just disregard that post then since it is nothing but scientific

[lando]

anyone got the UKM ensembles? maybe that cool little gif?

[Kingarabian]

anyone got the UKM ensembles? maybe that cool little gif?

00z UK-ENS:

[galaxy401]

I do not like that spread at all.

[Kingarabian]

I do not like that spread at all.

Yeah it's going with strong ridging all the way.