ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

The trend is supposed to be your friend, but not in this case.

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1038054690091663360

[otowntiger]

I hope people finally realize that she is probably not going to harmlessly curve OTS and that you cannot use climo this time around.

Shear also appears to be lessening a bit this morning.

I don't think we know that even yet. There is still plenty of time and LOTS and LOTs of space between land and storm for it to go OTS. Just my non-scientific, but Climo leaning opinion.

[plasticup]

The trend is supposed to be your friend, but not in this case.

The 3-day track has nailed it. 5 day, not so much.

[tolakram]

How do you embed a tweet on here again??

You have to use the share link on twitter. If you hover over the Tweet button i put usage text in the tooltip.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The trend is supposed to be your friend, but not in this case.

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1038054690091663360

The trend was nasty to us last year, looks nasty this year, too.

[Blown Away]

Just S of due W now... The length of this W movement will be a big factor...

[gatorcane]

Definitely looks like it is turning more WSW. Just a couple of days ago, models didn't show this (except the UKMET):

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[dspguy]

The trend is supposed to be your friend, but not in this case.

The 3-day track has nailed it. 5 day, not so much.

Generally speaking, I've found the 3 day to nearly always fall within the cone. I rarely even look at the 5 day cone. Sure, many times the storm does land in that 5 day cone if you go back and look at the archive. But there are also a decent number of instances where it falls out of the 5 day cone. And when you couple that with how the 3-day cone right now spans about 200 miles. If we were 3 days out from landfall, nearly everywhere in that 200 mile area is in danger. Maybe you don't get a direct hit, but you are likely getting TS force winds at a minimum. That's good to know.

But the 5 day cone? That's usually a 500 mile area. Even 5 days out, if the 5-day cone touched the coast, in much of that area you might not get more than a gentle breeze on landfall if you are sufficiently far away.

Long story short, 3 day - yes, very valuable to me. 5 day? I don't even look at it. When I look at the NHC advisory, if I have the option to turn off the 5 day cone, I do so.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Still looks pretty disorganized to me...not very many cold cloud tops.

[BobHarlem]

Not sure where to put this, but since it probably will impact Florence somehow...

so

@TropicalTidbits

This system between #Florence and the U.S. is most likely to stay near or SW of #Bermuda over next couple days, and could get closer to the island.

The forming low is currently quite weak, but with deep convection nearby, it would not be surprising to see more development.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1038058212166131712

[Aric Dunn]

Starting to really take a dive wsw. would not be surprised if it went wsw a good deal longer than forecast.

[GCANE]

May have bottomed out according to ADT

[otowntiger]

Not sure where to put this, but since it probably will impact Florence somehow...

so

@TropicalTidbits

This system between #Florence and the U.S. is most likely to stay near or SW of #Bermuda over next couple days, and could get closer to the island.

The forming low is currently quite weak, but with deep convection nearby, it would not be surprising to see more development.

I would like very much to know what the thoughts are on how this may play a role in the movement/development of Florence - one would think it could very well affect both.

[tolakram]

COD floater: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[GCANE]

Latest Archer algo satellite fixes in circles with forecast track denoted by X's.

[AJC3]

Not sure where to put this, but since it probably will impact Florence somehow...

so

@TropicalTidbits

This system between #Florence and the U.S. is most likely to stay near or SW of #Bermuda over next couple days, and could get closer to the island.

The forming low is currently quite weak, but with deep convection nearby, it would not be surprising to see more development.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 2166131712

Probably the system being discussed here...

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119860

[Ntxw]

Still battling some shear but doing better than the past 24 hours

[gatorcane]

Here is the big picture, Florence is losing latitude:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[Blown Away]

Here is the big picture, Florence is losing latitude:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

If that spot is correct, center @24.9N/51.8W... 11am position coming soon... And it's slightly S of track...

[Hurricane Andrew]

Here is the big picture, Florence is losing latitude:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

If that spot is correct, center @24.9N/51.8W... 11am position coming soon... And it's slightly S of track...

25.0N, 51.8W